Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Alamance County, NC

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
37001
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-06-10. Plan: Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807), approved 2025-06-11.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-06-11: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 24 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($26,701,737 a year), Tornado ($4,933,978) and Hurricane ($2,698,043).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-06-10
Plan:
Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)
Approved:
2025-06-11
Days to expiry:
1,349

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-06-11)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4889-NC (Tropical Depression Chantal), EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
24 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 4 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 14
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Alamance County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-06-20
Alamance villageTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-11-17
Burlington cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-06-20
Elon townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349
Graham cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-06-12
Green Level townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-11-17
Haw River townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-07-16
Mebane cityTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349
Ossipee townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2026-01-05
Swepsonville townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-09-18

Plan 110807 covers 8 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$26,574,098$18,847$108,792$26,701,73753
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,871,025$868$3,062,086$4,933,9787
3HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$2,423,276$130,973$143,794$2,698,0436
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$55$37$1,222,794$1,222,8864
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$62$26,230$1,062,005$1,088,2972Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
6EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$866,339n/a$216,672$1,083,012Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$70,726n/a$840,188$910,9147
8HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$574,293$22,739$270,299$867,33079
9Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$213,988$13,461$501,970$729,419232Includes 3 High Wind and 15 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$535,416n/a$91,871$627,2874
11Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively High$24,465$298$376,068$400,83178
12DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$150,582n/a$150,5820Declared 2 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$12,970$18$3,774$16,7630No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$292n/a$44$3360Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 201 (Relatively Low, 69.6); tract 216 (Relatively Low, 63.7); tract 207.01 (Relatively Low, 60.3)
Hurricanetract 216 (Relatively Moderate, 79.3); tract 217.03 (Relatively Moderate, 79.1); tract 213 (Relatively Moderate, 79.0)
Landslidetract 219.02 (Very Low, 73.8); tract 218.01 (Very Low, 73.6); tract 218.02 (Very Low, 73.4)
Tornadotract 216 (Relatively High, 76.1); tract 213 (Relatively Moderate, 74.2); tract 212.01 (Relatively Moderate, 72.4)
Wildfiretract 213 (Relatively Low, 76.4); tract 218.01 (Relatively Low, 70.5); tract 209.01 (Very Low, 67.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 201 is Census Tract 201). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 1996 (1 zone-level)3 days; 1 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 1996-02-03 to 1996-02-05, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2025 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)92 records, 1970 to 20260.75 in to 2.5 in (median 1 in); 92 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 1998-05-01Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Burlington city (12 records), Graham city (11 records), Haw River town (6 records), Mebane city (5 records), Swepsonville town (5 records), Alamance village (4 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 1998 to 2025 (4 zone-level)2 days to 3 days (median 2.5 days); 2 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 2025-07-26 to 2025-07-28, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson6 records, 1996 to 2022 (6 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 1999-09-15 to 1999-09-16, $3,000,000,000 property; $500,000,000 crops (1999 dollars) (as recorded; larger than this county's annual agriculture value in the National Risk Index (the county or state extension service keeps crop loss records)); NWS zone NCZ023Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1996 to 1999 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)53 records, 1996 to 2025 (3 zone-level)Flood, 2018-09-17, $1,070,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Burlington city (10 records), Graham city (4 records), Swepsonville town (4 records), Mebane city (2 records), Alamance village (1 record), Haw River town (1 record). Zone-level records (3) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)7 records, 2002 to 2011Lightning, 2010-06-15, $0 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryLightning, 2003-07-22, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Graham city (2 records), Mebane city (2 records), Burlington city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)18 records, 1998 to 2020 (18 zone-level)30 kt (35 mph) to 60 kt (69 mph) (median 43 kt (49 mph)); 18 with a recorded value60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2004-03-07; NWS zone NCZ023Strong Wind, 2020-10-29, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)253 records, 1957 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 212 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated, Thunderstorm Wind, 2000-05-25; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2000-05-25Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-07-27, $313,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mebane city (27 records), Burlington city (23 records), Swepsonville town (21 records), Graham city (15 records), Alamance village (14 records), Haw River town (14 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)10 records, 1975 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF1); 10 with a recorded valueF1 tornado, 1975-03-19, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 67 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1975 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 2011-04-16, $580,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Alamance village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)78 records, 1996 to 2026 (78 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2015-02-25, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); NWS zone NCZ023Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 27 declarations covering 22 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-21EM-3637-NCEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-09-112025-07-06DR-4889-NCMajor disasterTropical Depression ChantalHurricane$18,855,987.95new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-09-262024-09-25EM-3617-NCEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslideno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2024-08-062024-08-05EM-3608-NCEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2022-10-012022-09-28EM-3586-NCEmergencyHurricane IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2020-08-022020-07-31EM-3534-NCEmergencyHurricane IsaiasHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4487-NCMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$1,844,135.22
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3471-NCEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4487
2019-09-032019-09-01EM-3423-NCEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2019-01-312018-10-10DR-4412-NCMajor disasterTropical Storm MichaelHurricane$65,696.36
2018-09-142018-09-07DR-4393-NCMajor disasterHurricane FlorenceHurricane$188,265.37
2018-09-102018-09-07EM-3401-NCEmergencyHurricane FlorenceHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4393
2016-10-072016-10-04EM-3380-NCEmergencyHurricane MatthewHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2014-03-312014-03-06DR-4167-NCMajor disasterSevere Winter StormIce Storm$2,941,184.98
2011-04-192011-04-16DR-1969-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3222-NCEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-182004-09-16DR-1553-NCMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricanePA not declared for this county
2003-03-272003-02-27DR-1457-NCMajor disasterIce StormIce Storm$582,993.73
2002-12-122002-12-04DR-1448-NCMajor disasterSevere Ice StormIce Storm$610,840.33
2000-01-312000-01-24DR-1312-NCMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$65,269.68
1999-09-161999-09-15DR-1292-NCMajor disasterHurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsHurricane$27,954
1999-09-151999-09-15EM-3146-NCEmergencyHurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1292
1996-09-061996-09-05DR-1134-NCMajor disasterHurricane FranHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-06DR-1087-NCMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-171993-03-13EM-3110-NCEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-08-111977-08-11EM-3049-NCEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1977-03-021977-03-02EM-3033-NCEmergencyDrought & FreezingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Droughtno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-10-131964-10-13DR-179-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-161962-03-16DR-130-NCMajor disasterSevere Storm, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding
1960-09-161960-09-16DR-107-NCMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1958-10-011958-10-01DR-87-NCMajor disasterHurricane & Severe StormHurricane
1956-04-241956-04-24DR-56-NCMajor disasterSevere StormHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1955-08-131955-08-13DR-37-NCMajor disasterHurricanesHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1954-10-171954-10-17DR-28-NCMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

1 Fire Management declaration (1986-05-10 to 1986-05-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave2101001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought0000201996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 2 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail92316001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4303001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane60011211996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4000301996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding535412201996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning7000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind2719450001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 High Wind and 15 Strong Wind records.
Tornado10112101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather78207511996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-07-26Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2025-07-06Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)2, 0MEBANE HURDLE FLD ARnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2018-09-17Flood$1,070,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0SNOW CAMP to SUTPHINB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2015-02-25Winter Storm$500,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2010-06-15Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)1, 1GRAHAMdeaths or injuries recorded
2004-03-07High Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2000-05-25Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimateddamage not reported0, 0HAW RIVERB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1999-09-15Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$3,000,000,000 property; $500,000,000 crops (zone total, 1999 dollars) (as recorded; larger than this county's annual agriculture value in the National Risk Index (the county or state extension service keeps crop loss records))0, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
1998-05-01Hail2.5 in$100,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0ALTAMAHAWB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1996-09-05Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')damage not reported1, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1996-02-03Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ023 (ALAMANCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1975-03-19TornadoF1, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 67 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1975 dollars)0, 1location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (527 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.684event-days per yearabout 0.684 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)132005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought15.7event-days per yearabout 15.7 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)4762000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00125annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.125%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.52events per yearabout 4.52 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)171.7 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.53event-days per yearabout 2.53 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)402005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.107events per yearabout 1 in 9 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)241851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.82event-days per yearabout 1.82 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)1231946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.25event-days per yearabout 1.25 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)351996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.197events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning46.9days per year with a strikeabout 46.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.71events per yearabout 1.71 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)651986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.163events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000162annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0162%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather7.89event-days per yearabout 7.89 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)1502005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202544301.47
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025208306.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20257300.233
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave37 of 3725.937.050.9Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 34
Drought22 of 3771.983.792.3Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 13, Very Low 7, No Rating 15
Earthquake37 of 3726.046.769.6Relatively Low 27, Very Low 10
Hail37 of 3761.870.379.8Relatively Moderate 23, Relatively Low 14
Heat Wave37 of 3720.143.162.0Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 32
Hurricane37 of 3767.272.979.3Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 34
Ice Storm37 of 3766.679.488.9Relatively Moderate 35, Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding37 of 3723.154.690.5Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 17, Relatively Low 14
Landslide37 of 3723.146.373.8Very Low 37
Lightning37 of 3752.573.187.9Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 28
Strong Wind37 of 3735.751.774.3Relatively Moderate 14, Relatively Low 23
Tornado37 of 3755.263.176.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 36
Wildfire37 of 3735.050.776.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 35
Winter Weather37 of 3767.682.591.4Relatively High 26, Relatively Moderate 11

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Alamance County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 2; any 5$2,664,708.550 total; 0 since its planIncludes $1,844,135.22 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4487-NC).
Alamance villageTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,65220 total; 2 since its plan
Burlington cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 1, SRL 2; any 6$3,348,129.2946 total; 2 since its plan
Elon townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$242,669.420 total; 0 since its plan
Graham cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$16,533,497.5432 total; 0 since its plan
Green Level townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$32,370.950 total; 0 since its plan
Haw River townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,416,443.9221 total; 1 since its plan
Mebane cityTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$912,943.9036 total; 3 since its plan
Ossipee townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Swepsonville townTownApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded30 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-06-11county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$62$26,230$1,062,005under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$17,911,449n/an/a$150,582n/a0.841% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$56,702,406,269n/a171,415$866,339n/a$216,6720.00153%
Hail$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$574,293$22,739$270,2990.00179%$0
Heat Wave$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$55$37$1,222,794under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$32,155,293,122$53,762,256171,302$2,423,276$130,973$143,7940.00754%$18,855,987.95
Ice Storm$32,156,508,202n/a171,316$535,416n/a$91,8710.00167%
Inland Flooding$32,130,713,460$1,042,6271,705$26,574,098$18,847$108,792n/a (see note)$7,000NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$293,733,865n/a1,546$292n/a$44under 0.0001%
Lightning$32,156,508,202n/a171,316$70,726n/a$840,1880.00022%
Strong Wind$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$213,988$13,461$501,9700.000665%$46,000
Tornado$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$1,871,025$868$3,062,0860.00582%$50,000
Wildfire$5,120,290,871$10,707,93833,766$12,970$18$3,7740.000253%
Winter Weather$32,156,508,202$53,762,256171,316$24,465$298$376,068under 0.0001%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2025-06-11 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 18 county-coded records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $103,000; 6 zone-level records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $18,855,987.95 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population171,316
Building value (total, not at risk)$32,156,508,202
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$53,762,256
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$33,531,058
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$7,900,357
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)4
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition14Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total141441404
of which: Alamance County (unincorporated area)0252501
of which: Burlington city1262602
of which: Graham city0020200
of which: Elon town0010101
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Alamance County (unincorporated area)3700010252501
Alamance village3704570000000
Burlington city3700021262602
Elon town3704110010101
Graham city3702830020200
Green Level town3704820000000
Haw River town3700030000000
Mebane city3703900000000
Ossipee town3706890000000
Swepsonville town3700730000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential141441404
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 13 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Alamance County, NC: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 37001). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nc/37001/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]