Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Johnson County, MO

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
29101
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-07-19. Plan: Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135), approved 2023-07-20.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-07-20: no new hazard declaration and 53 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($11,931,628 a year), Cold Wave ($5,218,593) and Heat Wave ($2,134,446).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-07-19
Plan:
Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)
Approved:
2023-07-20
Days to expiry:
658

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-07-20)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
53 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 4
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Johnson County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Centerview cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Chilhowee townTownApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Holden cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Knob Noster cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Leeton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Warrensburg cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Chilhowee R-IV School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Holden R-III School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Knob Noster R-VIII School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Leeton R-X School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658
Warrensburg R-VI School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-07-19Johnson County (2023) (FEMA plan 109135)2023-07-202028-07-19658

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$9,513,267$800,891$1,617,470$11,931,628141
2Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively High$235$376,854$4,841,504$5,218,59310Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$413$7$2,134,026$2,134,44616
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,485,046$5,117$608,128$2,098,29121
5HailRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$631,063$977$36,592$668,632248
6Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$39,618$4,588$504,837$549,043197Includes 4 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Moderaten/a$428,965n/a$428,96528
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$152,749n/a$265,621$418,3709
9EarthquakeVery LowRelatively Low$290,159n/a$67,766$357,924Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
10LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$12,279n/a$286,330$298,6093
11Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$183,304$183$7,404$190,89040
12WildfireVery LowVery Low$13,400$99$4,036$17,5350No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$5,615$4,198$8$9,8210No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$319n/a$3,352$3,6710No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9602 (Relatively Low, 60.4); tract 9605.02 (Relatively Low, 53.4); tract 9606 (Relatively Low, 53.1)
Hurricanetract 9609 (Very Low, 38.2); tract 9601.02 (Very Low, 36.4); tract 9602 (Very Low, 35.5)
Landslidetract 9601.01 (Relatively Low, 91.8); tract 9609 (Relatively Low, 91.0); tract 9603.01 (Relatively Low, 90.6)
Tornadotract 9602 (Relatively High, 79.8); tract 9601.01 (Relatively High, 76.7); tract 9606 (Relatively Moderate, 71.5)
Wildfiretract 9603.02 (Relatively Low, 78.1); tract 9601.01 (Relatively Low, 77.2); tract 9609 (Relatively Low, 75.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9602 is Census Tract 9602). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill9 records, 1997 to 2025 (9 zone-level)1 day to 22 days (median 4 days); 7 with a recorded valueDecember 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)28 records, 2000 to 2025 (28 zone-level)5 days to 243 days (median 70 days); 7 with a recorded value243 days (8 months), 2012-07-01 to 2013-02-28, a run of 8 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)292 records, 1956 to 20260.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 292 with a recorded value3 in hail, 2004-08-17Hail, 2006-03-30, $50,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Warrensburg city (71 records), Holden city (22 records), Knob Noster city (15 records), Centerview city (13 records), Chilhowee town (13 records), Leeton city (13 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)16 records, 1999 to 2023 (16 zone-level)1 day to 14 days (median 5 days); 14 with a recorded value14 consecutive days, 1999-07-18 to 1999-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)9 records, 1997 to 2020 (9 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2002-01-30, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars); NWS zone MOZ044Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)141 records, 1996 to 2020 (68 zone-level)No damage reported in 141 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Holden city (9 records), Warrensburg city (9 records), Knob Noster city (6 records), Centerview city (5 records), Leeton city (1 record). Zone-level records (68) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 2000 to 2024Lightning, 2024-06-28, $0 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryLightning, 2000-07-12, $16,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Holden city (2 records), Warrensburg city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 1999 to 2019 (4 zone-level)45 kt (52 mph) to 54 kt (62 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 4 with a recorded value54 kt (62 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2019-11-26; NWS zone MOZ044High Wind, 1999-05-10, $20,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1999 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)241 records, 1955 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 90 kt (104 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 209 with a recorded value90 kt (104 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-05-08Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-11-09, $60,000 property; $0 crops (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Warrensburg city (54 records), Holden city (23 records), Centerview city (21 records), Knob Noster city (14 records), Leeton city (13 records), Chilhowee town (5 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)34 records, 1960 to 2017F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 34 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 2006-03-12, 12 mi within this county, 200 yd wide, $2,000,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars), 4 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Holden city (4 records), Warrensburg city (4 records), Centerview city (2 records), Leeton city (2 records), Chilhowee town (1 record), Knob Noster city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)40 records, 2000 to 2026 (40 zone-level)No damage reported in 40 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2020-03-262020-01-20DR-4490-MOMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countednone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $369,154.74 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3482-MOEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4490
2015-08-072015-05-15DR-4238-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$372,165.84
2011-03-232011-01-31DR-1961-MOMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$311,905.80
2011-02-032011-01-31EM-3317-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1961
2009-01-302009-01-26EM-3303-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2008-06-252008-06-01DR-1773-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingnone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $587,766 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
2007-12-122007-12-08EM-3281-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2006-03-162006-03-08DR-1631-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3232-MOEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-06-112004-05-18DR-1524-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2003-05-062003-05-04DR-1463-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2002-05-062002-04-24DR-1412-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$87,311.64
2002-02-062002-01-29DR-1403-MOMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm$956,195.21
1995-06-021995-05-13DR-1054-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Hail, FloodingHail; Inland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1993-07-091993-06-10DR-995-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1990-05-241990-05-15DR-867-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1986-10-141986-09-18DR-779-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1976-09-241976-09-24EM-3017-MOEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1973-04-191973-04-19DR-372-MOMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1965-07-271965-07-27DR-203-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $3,343.20 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-07-081964-07-08DR-173-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1961-05-271961-05-27DR-114-MOMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1960-04-201960-04-20DR-100-MOMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-05-221957-05-22DR-75-MOMajor disasterTornadoes & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Missouri county: 24 rows, $2,272,582.85; listed on the Missouri state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave10112001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought288716101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail29291223101955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave16101001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm9000301996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding1410001201996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3202001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind24530133101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 4 High Wind records.
Tornado34000701950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather40205101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-06-28Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 1HOLDENnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-06-28Lightningdamage not reported1, 0HOLDENnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2019-11-26High Wind54 kt (62 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ044 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2012-07-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ044 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2006-03-30Hail1.75 in$50,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0CHILHOWEEB1-c most damaging: Hail
2006-03-12TornadoF2, 12 mi within this county, 200 yd wide$2,000,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 4LEETONB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2004-08-17Hail3 in$5,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)0, 0WARRENSBURGB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2003-05-08Thunderstorm Wind90 kt (104 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0(SZL)WHITEMAN AFBB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2002-01-30Ice Storm$200,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2002 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ044 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2000-12-10Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MOZ044 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1999-07-18Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MOZ044 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1964-04-12TornadoF2, 10.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1964 dollars)1, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (818 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave2.21event-days per yearabout 2.21 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)422005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought11.1event-days per yearabout 11.1 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)4132000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00147annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.147%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail6.68events per yearabout 6.68 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)254.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave13.6event-days per yearabout 13.6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)1632005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.754event-days per yearabout 0.754 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)511946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding4.18event-days per yearabout 4.18 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)1171996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.199events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning50days per year with a strikeabout 50 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.78events per yearabout 4.78 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1821986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.446events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000399annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0399%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather10.5event-days per yearabout 10.5 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)2002005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025159305.3
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202511300.367
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025168305.6
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202520300.667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202519300.633
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave14 of 1480.691.596.4Very High 2, Relatively High 12
Drought12 of 1469.091.196.4Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 4, No Rating 2
Earthquake14 of 1418.344.760.4Relatively Low 9, Very Low 5
Hail14 of 1466.682.288.3Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 2
Heat Wave14 of 1472.786.992.6Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 5
Hurricane14 of 1422.329.138.2Very Low 14
Ice Storm14 of 1469.388.593.9Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 10
Inland Flooding14 of 148.064.889.3Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Landslide14 of 1422.873.191.8Relatively Low 6, Very Low 8
Lightning14 of 1447.868.682.3Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind14 of 1449.672.183.9Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 3
Tornado14 of 1448.267.079.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 3
Wildfire14 of 1420.359.078.1Relatively Low 6, Very Low 8
Winter Weather14 of 1467.687.093.2Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Johnson County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$1,344,671.570 total; 0 since its plan
Centerview cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$4,308.3841 total; 10 since its plan
Chilhowee townTownApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,92519 total; 0 since its plan
Holden cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$52,575.0260 total; 5 since its plan
Knob Noster cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$11,692.9136 total; 1 since its plan
Leeton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$30,006.7229 total; 3 since its plan
Warrensburg cityCityApproved, expires 2028-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$171,123.31139 total; 6 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-07-20county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$235$376,854$4,841,504under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$56,573,921n/an/a$428,965n/a0.758% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$22,646,406,573n/a54,013$290,159n/a$67,7660.00128%
Hail$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$631,063$977$36,5920.00487%
Heat Wave$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$413$7$2,134,026under 0.0001%
Hurricane$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$5,615$4,198$8under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$12,966,020,836n/a53,971$152,749n/a$265,6210.00118%
Inland Flooding$12,964,599,122$17,520,436609$9,513,267$800,891$1,617,470n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$101,793,434n/a498$319n/a$3,3520.000313%
Lightning$12,966,803,729n/a53,973$12,279n/a$286,330under 0.0001%$0
Strong Wind$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$39,618$4,588$504,8370.000306%
Tornado$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$1,485,046$5,117$608,1280.0115%
Wildfire$1,888,452,798$35,100,33610,822$13,400$99$4,0360.00071%
Winter Weather$12,966,803,729$180,167,79653,973$183,304$183$7,4040.00141%

Totals since 2023-07-20 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 41 county-coded records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 12 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population53,973
Building value (total, not at risk)$12,966,803,729
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$180,167,796
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$13,949,345
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$10,377,073
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0040401
of which: Warrensburg city0010101
of which: Leeton city0010100
of which: Knob Noster city0010100
of which: Johnson County (unincorporated area)0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0030300

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Johnson County (unincorporated area)2908090010100
Centerview city2906260000000
Chilhowee town2906270000000
Holden city2907140000000
Knob Noster city2907240010100
Leeton city2905620010100
Warrensburg city2901940010101

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0040401
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 4 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Johnson County, MO: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 29101). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mo/29101/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]