Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Holt County, MO

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
29087
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2026-11-17. Plan: Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861), approved 2021-11-17.

Since the plan was approved on 2021-11-17: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 34 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,789,582 a year), Drought ($1,435,957) and Tornado ($962,732).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2026-11-17
Plan:
Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)
Approved:
2021-11-17
Days to expiry:
48
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2021-11-17)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4924-MO (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4929-MO (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
34 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 110, SRL 96 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 231
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Holt CountyCountyApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Big Lake villageVillageApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Craig cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Forest City cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Maitland cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Mound City cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Oregon cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Craig R-III School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Mound City R-II School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748
Nodaway-Holt R-VII School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-09-27Nodaway County Natural Hazards Plan (2023) (FEMA plan 109133)2023-09-282028-09-27728Also approved under plan 107861 (Holt County (2021), expires 2026-11-17). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. this jurisdiction approved 2023-09-27
South Holt County R-I School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2026-11-17Holt County (2021) (FEMA plan 107861)2021-11-172026-11-1748

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,440,422$329,342$19,818$2,789,58225
2DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,435,957n/a$1,435,95714
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$564,107$3,040$395,585$962,73210
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$4,241$4$435,372$439,61715
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$938$138,907$257,628$397,47311Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
6HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$189,970$70,298$11,475$271,743100
7Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$75,870$14,843$79,375$170,08859Includes 3 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$33,822n/a$10,676$44,4984
9LightningVery LowVery Low$3,779n/a$37,531$41,3100No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$17,303n/a$4,602$21,905Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$16,706$140$1,615$18,4620No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Winter WeatherVery LowRelatively Low$10,601$156$2,676$13,43233
13LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$251n/a$7,888$8,1390No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14HurricaneNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9601 (Very Low, 26.6); tract 9603 (Very Low, 23.6); tract 9602 (Very Low, 21.3)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9603 (Relatively Moderate, 97.1); tract 9602 (Relatively Low, 90.2); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 89.4)
Tornadotract 9602 (Relatively High, 88.9); tract 9601 (Relatively High, 88.4); tract 9603 (Relatively High, 86.6)
Wildfiretract 9603 (Relatively Low, 82.1); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 81.3); tract 9602 (Relatively Low, 79.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9601 is Census Tract 9601). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill10 records, 1997 to 2025 (10 zone-level)2 days to 22 days (median 4 days); 8 with a recorded valueDecember 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)14 records, 2000 to 2022 (14 zone-level)29 days to 274 days (median 41 days); 4 with a recorded value274 days (9 months), 2012-07-01 to 2013-03-31, a run of 9 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)131 records, 1964 to 20250.75 in to 4.25 in (median 1 in); 131 with a recorded value4.25 in hail, 2009-06-07Hail, 1994-06-25, $50,000 property; $50,000 crops (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mound City city (25 records), Oregon city (21 records), Craig city (14 records), Maitland city (13 records), Forest City city (6 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)15 records, 1999 to 2023 (15 zone-level)1 day to 14 days (median 5 days); 13 with a recorded value14 consecutive days, 1999-07-18 to 1999-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1997 to 2008 (4 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2007-12-10, $750,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone MOZ011Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)25 records, 1996 to 2021Flash Flood, 2019-03-20, $100,000 property; $100,000 crops (2019 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mound City city (8 records), Forest City city (6 records), Oregon city (5 records), Craig city (3 records), Maitland city (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)3 records, 2015 to 2021 (3 zone-level)52 kt (60 mph) to 56 kt (64 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 3 with a recorded value56 kt (64 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2021-12-15; NWS zone MOZ011Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)82 records, 1957 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 61 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1997-07-23Thunderstorm Wind, 1997-07-27, $250,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mound City city (18 records), Oregon city (12 records), Craig city (11 records), Forest City city (5 records), Maitland city (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)15 records, 1954 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 14 with a recorded valueEF1 tornado, 2008-06-05, 9.74 mi within this county, 100 yd wide, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Maitland city (3 records), Craig city (2 records), Mound City city (1 record), Oregon city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)33 records, 1997 to 2025 (33 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 1997-04-10, $100,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars); NWS zone MOZ011Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 25 declarations covering 20 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-08-032026-06-04DR-4929-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadonot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-06-302026-04-23DR-4924-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$58,301.22new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-09-012021-06-24DR-4612-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,014,662.51in the 12 months before plan approval
2020-03-262020-01-20DR-4490-MOMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countednone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $369,154.74 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3482-MOEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4490
2019-07-092019-04-29DR-4451-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$3,387,621.53
2019-05-202019-03-11DR-4435-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$8,657,580.94
2015-08-072015-05-15DR-4238-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$108,308.94
2014-10-312014-09-09DR-4200-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$398,224.84
2011-08-122011-06-01DR-4012-MOMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$2,396,520.07
2011-06-302011-06-01EM-3325-MOEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4012
2011-02-032011-01-31EM-3317-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
2010-08-172010-06-12DR-1934-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$858,804.29
2009-01-302009-01-26EM-3303-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2008-06-252008-06-01DR-1773-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$349,537.48
2007-12-272007-12-06DR-1736-MOMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$225,922.07
2007-12-122007-12-08EM-3281-MOEmergencySevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1736
2007-06-112007-05-05DR-1708-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$534,500.07
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3232-MOEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
1993-07-091993-06-10DR-995-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1984-06-211984-06-06DR-713-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-06-101974-06-10DR-439-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-11-011973-11-01DR-407-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-04-191973-04-19DR-372-MOMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1965-07-271965-07-27DR-203-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $3,701.73 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-07-081964-07-08DR-173-MOMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1961-05-271961-05-27DR-114-MOMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1960-04-201960-04-20DR-100-MOMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-05-221957-05-22DR-75-MOMajor disasterTornadoes & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Missouri county: 24 rows, $2,272,582.85; listed on the Missouri state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave11333001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought14202001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail131808001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave15101001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm4000201996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding250101721996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind8518318621955 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 High Wind records.
Tornado15101821950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather33121101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2021-12-15High Wind56 kt (64 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-03-20Flash Flood$100,000 property; $100,000 crops (2019 dollars)0, 0CRAIGB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2012-07-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2009-06-07Hail4.25 in$50,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0OREGONB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2008-06-05TornadoEF1, 9.74 mi within this county, 100 yd wide$250,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)0, 0CORNINGB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2007-12-10Ice Storm$750,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2000-12-10Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1999-07-18Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1997-07-27Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$250,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0MOUND CITYB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1997-07-23Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recorded$250,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0MAITLANDB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1997-04-10Heavy Snow$100,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MOZ011 (HOLT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1994-06-25Hail1.75 in$50,000 property; $50,000 crops (1994 dollars)0, 0Mound CityB1-c most damaging: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (333 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave4.16event-days per yearabout 4.16 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)792005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought16.3event-days per yearabout 16.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)4412000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000838annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0838%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail6.91events per yearabout 6.91 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)262.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave10event-days per yearabout 10 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)1342005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.00546events per yearabout 1 in 183 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.674event-days per yearabout 0.674 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)461946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.714event-days per yearabout 0.714 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)201996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.181events per year (modeled)about 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning48.2days per year with a strikeabout 48.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.69events per yearabout 4.69 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1791986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.355events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00112annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.112%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather11.6event-days per yearabout 11.6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)2202005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202546301.53
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20258300.267
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202544301.47
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20257300.233
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20259300.3
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 372.874.478.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Drought3 of 397.498.699.2Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Earthquake3 of 321.323.626.6Very Low 3
Hail3 of 388.989.092.6Relatively High 3
Heat Wave3 of 384.988.289.5Relatively High 3
Hurricane0 of 3No Rating 3
Ice Storm3 of 377.779.981.1Relatively Moderate 3
Inland Flooding3 of 367.571.084.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Landslide3 of 389.490.297.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 2
Lightning3 of 352.758.260.9Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind3 of 381.882.983.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado3 of 386.688.488.9Relatively High 3
Wildfire3 of 379.381.382.1Relatively Low 3
Winter Weather3 of 361.964.567.5Relatively Moderate 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Holt CountyCountyApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 6, SRL 3; any 20$2,186,092.230 total; 0 since its plan
Big Lake villageVillageApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 103, SRL 93; any 204$311,214.150 total; 0 since its plan
Craig cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 1$408,089.4930 total; 7 since its plan
Forest City cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$41,048.7717 total; 0 since its plan
Maitland cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$42,577.7419 total; 1 since its plan
Mound City cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$116,028.1652 total; 4 since its plan
Oregon cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$87,351.3439 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2021-11-17county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$938$138,907$257,628under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$102,122,720n/an/a$1,435,957n/a1.41% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$3,496,661,107n/a4,223$17,303n/a$4,6020.000495%
Hail$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$189,970$70,298$11,4750.00934%$0
Heat Wave$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$4,241$4$435,3720.000208%
Hurricane$2,013,464,354$133,370,2894,162$0$0$00%
Ice Storm$2,034,533,590n/a4,210$33,822n/a$10,6760.00166%
Inland Flooding$2,027,394,482$44,676,042417$2,440,422$329,342$19,818n/a (see note)$58,301.22NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$87,703,333n/a239$251n/a$7,8880.000286%
Lightning$2,034,533,590n/a4,210$3,779n/a$37,5310.000186%
Strong Wind$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$75,870$14,843$79,3750.00373%$0$58,301.22
Tornado$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$564,107$3,040$395,5850.0277%$58,301.22
Wildfire$187,244,171$17,701,820869$16,706$140$1,6150.00892%
Winter Weather$2,034,533,590$140,025,9974,210$10,601$156$2,6760.000521%

Totals since 2021-11-17 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 26 county-coded records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 8 zone-level records, 3 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $58,301.22 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance; 1 not yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30).

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population4,210
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,034,533,590
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$140,025,997
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,350,697
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,264,239
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)110Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)96
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition183Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition71

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total11096183712315792
of which: Holt County (unincorporated area)631812026
of which: Bigelow village (community ID not in plan data)0010100
of which: Corning town (community ID not in plan data)0010100
of which: Craig city1000110
of which: Mound City city0010100
of which: Big Lake village10393159702045485
of which: Fortescue town (community ID not in plan data)0030301
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0030300

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Holt County290157631812026
Big Lake village29088610393159702045485
Craig city2901601000110
Forest City city2901610000000
Maitland city2905640000000
Mound City city2906910010100
Oregon city2906700000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential10690175662225791
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential4685901
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 41 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 114 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Holt County, MO: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 29087). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mo/29087/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]