Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Traverse County, MN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
27155
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-05-08. Plan: Traverse County (FEMA plan 108253), approved 2022-05-09.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-05-09: 3 new hazard declarations (3 incidents) and 49 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($1,739,562 a year), Cold Wave ($698,526) and Hail ($359,404).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-05-08
Plan:
Traverse County (FEMA plan 108253)
Approved:
2022-05-09
Days to expiry:
220
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-05-09)

New federal declarations:
3 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): DR-4658-MN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4666-MN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4722-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
49 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 8
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Traverse CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-08Traverse County (FEMA plan 108253)2022-05-092027-05-08220
Browns Valley cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleTraverse County (FEMA plan 108253), pending adoption here2022-05-09 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-08 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Dumont cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleTraverse County (FEMA plan 108253), pending adoption here2022-05-09 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-08 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Tintah cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleTraverse County (FEMA plan 108253), pending adoption here2022-05-09 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-08 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Wheaton cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleTraverse County (FEMA plan 108253), pending adoption here2022-05-09 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-08 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Bois de Sioux Watershed DistrictFlood Control DistrictApproved, expires 2027-05-08Traverse County (FEMA plan 108253)2022-05-092027-05-08220this jurisdiction approved 2023-09-28

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,680,017$51,535$8,010$1,739,56228
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$315$65$698,146$698,52645
3HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,442$346,605$10,357$359,40483
4Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$78,555$220,629$44,812$343,99676Includes 23 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5TornadoVery LowVery Low$154,753$4,872$58,836$218,46113
6Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$37,233$3,250$44,644$85,127119
7Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$429$2$47,468$47,8994
8LightningVery LowVery Low$2,290n/a$15,449$17,7390No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
9Ice StormVery LowVery Low$5,942n/a$10,732$16,6745
10WildfireVery LowVery Low$5,302$82$246$5,6300No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$4,348n/a$707$5,055Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12LandslideVery LowVery Low$3n/a$96$990No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$017
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3242-MN names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 4601 (Very Low, 15.4); tract 4602 (Very Low, 8.9)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 4602 (Very Low, 79.9); tract 4601 (Very Low, 65.0)
Tornadotract 4601 (Relatively Moderate, 68.9); tract 4602 (Relatively Moderate, 55.2)
Wildfiretract 4602 (Relatively Low, 77.7); tract 4601 (Relatively Low, 73.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 4601 is Census Tract 4601). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill45 records, 1996 to 2026 (45 zone-level)1 day to 12 days (median 2 days); 43 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 2021-02-06 to 2021-02-17, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)17 records, 2006 to 2024 (17 zone-level)15 days to 198 days (median 29 days); 7 with a recorded value198 days (about 6.5 months), 2012-10-01 to 2013-04-16, a run of 7 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)89 records, 1955 to 20240.75 in to 3.5 in (median 1 in); 89 with a recorded value3.5 in hail, 2003-07-02Hail, 1994-07-18, property not recorded; $50,000,000 crops (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wheaton city (27 records), Dumont city (11 records), Tintah city (9 records), Browns Valley city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2006 to 2023 (4 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 2.5 days); 4 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2011-07-16 to 2011-07-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 1996 to 2016 (5 zone-level)No damage reported in 5 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)28 records, 1997 to 2023 (5 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2007-03-14, $5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Dumont city (8 records), Tintah city (7 records), Wheaton city (2 records). Zone-level records (5) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)23 records, 1996 to 2026 (23 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 57 kt (66 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 23 with a recorded value57 kt (66 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2007-05-06; NWS zone MNZ039Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)64 records, 1955 to 202450 kt (58 mph) to 85 kt (98 mph) (median 56.5 kt (65 mph)); 56 with a recorded value85 kt (98 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2014-07-06Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Dumont city (13 records), Wheaton city (11 records), Tintah city (6 records), Browns Valley city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)19 records, 1956 to 2022F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 19 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1982-05-10, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 80 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars); same rating, casualties and property damage also recorded on 1982-05-10Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Dumont city (4 records), Browns Valley city (1 record), Wheaton city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)119 records, 1996 to 2025 (119 zone-level)No damage reported in 119 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 25 declarations covering 20 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2023-07-192023-04-11DR-4722-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,021,758.59new since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-08-092022-05-29DR-4666-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$95,762.71new since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-07-082022-05-08DR-4658-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadonone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $48,276.63 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-072020-01-20DR-4531-MNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3453-MNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4531
2019-06-122019-03-12DR-4442-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Winter Weather$732,267.33
2013-07-252013-06-20DR-4131-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind$79,222.30
2011-05-102011-03-16DR-1982-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$563,761.25
2010-04-192010-03-01DR-1900-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$512,414.38
2010-03-192010-03-01EM-3310-MNEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1900
2009-04-092009-03-16DR-1830-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$464,081.75
2009-03-262009-03-16EM-3304-MNEmergencySevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1830
2006-01-042005-11-27DR-1622-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$68,323.16
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3242-MNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-05-162001-03-23DR-1370-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Ice Storm, Tornado, Winter Weather$682,236.57
1997-04-081997-03-21DR-1175-MNMajor disasterSevere Flooding, High Winds,Severe StormsInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1997-01-161997-01-03DR-1158-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1996-06-011996-03-14DR-1116-MNMajor disasterFlooding and Severe StormsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-051995-10-23DR-1078-MNMajor disasterHigh Winds, Freezing Rain, Heavy SnowfallWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-06-111993-05-06DR-993-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-081989-03-29DR-824-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1978-04-221978-04-22DR-555-MNMajor disasterStorms, Ice Jams, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1976-06-171976-06-17EM-3013-MNEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1969-04-181969-04-18DR-255-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1965-04-111965-04-11DR-188-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $559,248.53 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-80-MNMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1976-09-08 to 1976-10-01) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Minnesota county: 14 rows, $9,133,931.59; listed on the Minnesota state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave457714001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought17727101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail89636001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4101001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm5000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding285161631996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind8710313521955 to 2026-06-30Includes 23 High Wind records.
Tornado19246421950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather11911819501996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2021-02-06Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ039 (TRAVERSE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2014-07-06Thunderstorm Wind85 kt (98 mph) measured gustproperty not reported; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0BROWNS VLYB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2012-10-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ039 (TRAVERSE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-07-16Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ039 (TRAVERSE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2007-05-06High Wind57 kt (66 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ039 (TRAVERSE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2007-03-14Flash Flood$5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0BROWNS VLYB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2003-07-02Hail3.5 indamage not reported0, 0TINTAHB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1994-07-18Hail1 inproperty not recorded; $50,000,000 crops (1994 dollars)0, 0WheatonB1-c most damaging: Hail
1987-05-20TornadoF1, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 30 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1987 dollars)0, 0location not recordedlarge reported damage
1982-05-10TornadoF3, 1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 80 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)0, 0location not recordedlarge reported damage
1982-05-10TornadoF3, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 80 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1969-09-05TornadoF1, 10.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$2,500 property; crops not recorded (1969 dollars)0, 0location not recordedlarge reported damage

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (413 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave14.2event-days per yearabout 14.2 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)2692005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNRI models no drought event-days here (2000 to 2025, 25.25 years; D3 and D4 only); Storm Events has a record in 7 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which counts D2 drought that NRI leaves out.
Earthquake0.000231annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0231%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.74events per yearabout 3.74 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)142.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.37event-days per yearabout 2.37 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)352005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.27event-days per yearabout 0.27 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)191946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.821event-days per yearabout 0.821 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)231996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0538events per year (modeled)about 1 in 19 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning32.4days per year with a strikeabout 32.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.72events per yearabout 2.72 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1041986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.39events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000419annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0419%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather20.5event-days per yearabout 20.5 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)3902005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202547301.57
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202547301.57
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202513300.433
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave2 of 287.891.795.6Very High 1, Relatively High 1
Drought0 of 2No Rating 2
Earthquake2 of 28.912.115.4Very Low 2
Hail2 of 295.995.996.0Relatively High 2
Heat Wave2 of 226.336.446.6Relatively Low 2
Hurricane0 of 2Not Applicable 2
Ice Storm2 of 266.666.666.7Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding2 of 260.471.682.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide2 of 265.072.579.9Very Low 2
Lightning2 of 236.044.452.8Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind2 of 296.196.797.4Very High 1, Relatively High 1
Tornado2 of 255.262.068.9Relatively Moderate 2
Wildfire2 of 273.075.377.7Relatively Low 2
Winter Weather2 of 296.897.898.8Very High 2

Hail: Agriculture is 96% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Strong Wind: Agriculture is 64% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Traverse CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-08FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$8,759.800 total; 0 since its plan
Browns Valley cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5$67,248.543 total; no approved plan
Dumont cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$32,632.4136 total; no approved plan
Tintah cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,491.4222 total; no approved plan
Wheaton cityCityPlan 108253 approved 2022-05-09, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$32,909.2741 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-05-09county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,492,540,531$270,920,9843,356$315$65$698,146under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/a$0agriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$2,653,599,674n/a3,360$4,348n/a$7070.000164%
Hail$1,492,544,681$270,920,9843,356$2,442$346,605$10,3570.000164%$0
Heat Wave$1,492,540,531$270,920,9843,356$429$2$47,468under 0.0001%$0
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$1,492,544,681n/a3,356$5,942n/a$10,7320.000398%
Inland Flooding$1,490,429,524$1,265,571310$1,680,017$51,535$8,010n/a (see note)$0$1,117,521.30NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$3,636,768n/a8$3n/a$96under 0.0001%
Lightning$1,492,544,681n/a3,356$2,290n/a$15,4490.000153%
Strong Wind$1,492,544,681$270,920,9843,356$78,555$220,629$44,8120.00526%$0$95,762.71
Tornado$1,492,544,681$270,920,9843,356$154,753$4,872$58,8360.0104%$95,762.71
Wildfire$218,466,435$22,537,756469$5,302$82$2460.00243%
Winter Weather$1,492,540,531$270,920,9843,356$37,233$3,250$44,6440.00249%$0

Totals since 2022-05-09 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 22 county-coded records, 10 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 27 zone-level records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $1,117,521.30 on 3 counted declarations, 2 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population3,356
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,492,544,681
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$270,920,984
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$2,598,668
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$939,504
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition8Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0080800
of which: Browns Valley city0050500
of which: Traverse County (unincorporated area)0030300

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Traverse County2706210030300
Browns Valley city2704800050500
Dumont city2704810000000
Tintah city2704820000000
Wheaton city2706110000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0070700
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 8 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Traverse County, MN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 27155). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mn/27155/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]