Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Osceola County, MI

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
26133
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2021-07-18. Plan: Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017), approved 2016-07-18.

Since the plan was approved on 2016-07-18: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4925-MI (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 23 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,365,683 a year), Strong Wind ($867,249) and Cold Wave ($851,953).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 1, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 6.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2021-07-18
Plan:
Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)
Approved:
2016-07-18
Days since expiry:
1,900
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2016-07-18)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4925-MI (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted)
Storm Events records since approval:
23 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 6
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 23 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Osceola CountyCountyExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Evart cityCityExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Hersey villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Le Roy villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Marion villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Reed City cityCityExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Tustin villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Burdell townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Cedar townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Evart townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Hartwick townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Hersey townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Highland townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Le Roy townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Lincoln townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Marion townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Middle Branch townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Orient townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Osceola townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Richmond townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Rose Lake townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Sherman townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900
Sylvan townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18Osceola County (FEMA plan 101017)2016-07-182021-07-18-1,900

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowVery Low$3,364,945$178$561$3,365,68312
2Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$714,750$16,098$136,402$867,24947Includes 9 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
3Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$89$36,951$814,913$851,9530No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$316,947$780$257,990$575,7165
5Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$3,337$359$240,562$244,25768Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
6HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$152,628$20,513$4,664$177,80518
7LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,383n/a$170,513$172,8960No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$619under $1$48,030$48,6490No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
9Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$20,488n/a$5,376$25,8644
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$12,173n/a$4,269$16,442Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$6,629$8$865$7,5030No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$341n/a$6,832$7,1730No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$3,422$1,059$2$4,4830No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$00Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9706 (Very Low, 20.6); tract 9701 (Very Low, 13.7); tract 9704 (Very Low, 13.3)
Hurricanetract 9706 (Very Low, 35.2); tract 9704 (Very Low, 34.1); tract 9701 (Very Low, 33.6)
Landslidetract 9702 (Relatively Low, 95.3); tract 9703 (Relatively Low, 95.1); tract 9701 (Relatively Low, 91.8)
Tornadotract 9706 (Relatively Moderate, 67.2); tract 9704 (Relatively Moderate, 63.3); tract 9701 (Relatively Moderate, 61.9)
Wildfiretract 9702 (Relatively Low, 73.9); tract 9703 (Relatively Low, 69.9); tract 9701 (Relatively Low, 69.1)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9706 is Census Tract 9706). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)27 records, 1966 to 20260.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 27 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2021-09-07; same size also recorded on 1975-05-20, 1976-03-30, 1996-06-21Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tustin village (4 records), Evart city (3 records), Evart township (3 records), Reed City city (3 records), Le Roy township (1 record), Le Roy village (1 record), Marion township (1 record), Marion village (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 2002 to 2006 (4 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2003-04-03, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars); NWS zone MIZ039Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)12 records, 1996 to 2014 (2 zone-level)Flood, 2014-04-12, $3,000,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Reed City city (2 records), Tustin village (2 records), Le Roy township (1 record), Le Roy village (1 record), Marion township (1 record), Marion village (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)9 records, 1997 to 2017 (9 zone-level)50 kt (58 mph) to 64 kt (74 mph) (median 52.5 kt (60 mph)); 8 with a recorded value64 kt (74 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1998-11-10; NWS zone MIZ039High Wind, 2017-03-08, $5,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)51 records, 1980 to 202450 kt (58 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 34 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2018-08-28Thunderstorm Wind, 2001-07-29, $150,000 property; $25,000 crops (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Marion township (7 records), Marion village (7 records), Hersey township (6 records), Hersey village (6 records), Le Roy township (6 records), Le Roy village (6 records), Tustin village (6 records), Reed City city (5 records), Evart city (4 records), Evart township (4 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)13 records, 1959 to 2008F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 13 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1968-04-23, 51.4 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1968 dollars), 3 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tustin village (3 records), Evart city (1 record), Evart township (1 record), Hersey township (1 record), Hersey village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)68 records, 1996 to 2025 (68 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2010-12-11, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars); NWS zone MIZ039Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 14 declarations covering 11 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-06-302026-04-10DR-4925-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado$168,241.27new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-03-272020-01-20DR-4494-MIMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$23,443.35new since last plan
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3455-MIEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4494
2013-06-182013-04-16DR-4121-MIMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$53,042.62
2008-07-142008-06-06DR-1777-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$1,422,771.80
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3225-MIEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-01-102000-12-11EM-3160-MIEmergencySnowWinter Weather$11,057.25
1999-01-271999-01-02EM-3137-MIEmergencyMi - Severe Weather 1/2 /99Winter Weather$18,479.45
1986-09-181986-09-10DR-774-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1985-09-181985-09-05DR-744-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1978-01-271978-01-27EM-3057-MIEmergencyBlizzards & SnowstormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-03-021977-03-02EM-3035-MIEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1976-03-191976-03-19DR-495-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1975-09-301975-09-30DR-486-MIMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1956-04-051956-04-05DR-53-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado
1953-06-091953-06-09DR-6-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado
1953-06-021953-06-02DR-4-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Drought0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail27312001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding12000711996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind601023101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 9 High Wind records.
Tornado13000311950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather681025301996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2021-09-07Hail1.75 in$50,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)0, 0REED CITYnew since last planB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2018-08-28Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$100,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0LE ROYnew since last planB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2017-03-08High Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$5,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MIZ039 (OSCEOLA), zone-levelnew since last planB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2014-04-12Flood$3,000,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0MARIONB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2013-04-17Flood$3,000,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0TUSTIN to REED CITYlarge reported damage
2010-12-11Winter Storm$500,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MIZ039 (OSCEOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2003-04-03Ice Storm$200,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2003 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MIZ039 (OSCEOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2002-08-01TornadoF1, 6.5 mi within this county, 850 yd wide$500,000 property; $100,000 crops (2002 dollars)0, 1TUSTINdeaths or injuries recorded
2001-07-29Thunderstorm Wind53 kt (61 mph) estimated$150,000 property; $25,000 crops (2001 dollars)0, 0REED CITYB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-11-10High Wind64 kt (74 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MIZ039 (OSCEOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1998-05-31Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$100,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 1TUSTIN to SEARSdeaths or injuries recorded
1968-04-23TornadoF3, 51.4 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1968 dollars)0, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (184 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave2event-days per yearabout 2 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)382005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.000456annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0456%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.43events per yearabout 1.43 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)54.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave1.53event-days per yearabout 1.53 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)282005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.341event-days per yearabout 0.341 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)231946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.393event-days per yearabout 0.393 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 9 of 30 years)event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)111996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.273events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning29days per year with a strikeabout 29 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.81events per yearabout 1.81 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)691986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.138events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000723annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00723%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather19.4event-days per yearabout 19.4 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 26 of 30 years)event-days in 26 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (86.7%)3692005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20259300.3
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202530301
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave7 of 767.978.782.7Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought0 of 7No Rating 7
Earthquake7 of 77.511.320.6Very Low 7
Hail7 of 768.777.482.0Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 1
Heat Wave7 of 77.012.015.7Very Low 7
Hurricane7 of 729.733.435.2Very Low 7
Ice Storm7 of 735.650.759.6Relatively Low 7
Inland Flooding7 of 719.250.967.7Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 2
Landslide7 of 786.489.995.3Relatively Low 7
Lightning7 of 768.782.388.3Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind7 of 790.096.098.0Very High 2, Relatively High 5
Tornado7 of 751.060.667.2Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 3
Wildfire7 of 766.467.373.9Relatively Low 3, Very Low 4
Winter Weather7 of 795.898.198.7Very High 6, Relatively High 1

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Osceola CountyCountyExpired on 2021-07-18$56,749.030 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row. Includes $23,443.35 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4494-MI).
Evart cityCityExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$28,784.388 total; 0 since its plan
Hersey villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded7 total; 3 since its plan
Le Roy villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded8 total; 3 since its plan
Marion villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$10,403.979 total; 0 since its plan
Reed City cityCityExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,205.2110 total; 3 since its plan
Tustin villageVillageExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded15 total; 1 since its plan
Burdell townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Cedar townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Evart townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2no Public Assistance recorded8 total; 0 since its plan
Hartwick townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Hersey townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$13,097.657 total; 3 since its plan
Highland townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Le Roy townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded8 total; 3 since its plan
Lincoln townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Marion townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; 0 since its plan
Middle Branch townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Orient townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Osceola townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 3no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Richmond townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Rose Lake townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Sherman townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Sylvan townshipTownshipExpired on 2021-07-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2016-07-18county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$89$36,951$814,913under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$9,182,409,539n/a22,891$12,173n/a$4,2690.000133%
Hail$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$152,628$20,513$4,6640.00291%$50,000
Heat Wave$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$619under $1$48,030under 0.0001%
Hurricane$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$3,422$1,059$2under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$5,226,563,697n/a22,844$20,488n/a$5,3760.000392%
Inland Flooding$5,237,022,625$32,508250$3,364,945$178$561n/a (see note)$168,241.27NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$79,240,034n/a347$341n/a$6,8320.00043%
Lightning$5,248,071,405n/a22,885$2,383n/a$170,513under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$714,750$16,098$136,4020.0136%$310,000$5,000,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level High Wind record ($5,000,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$316,947$780$257,9900.00604%$168,241.27
Wildfire$808,106,254$12,182,2104,989$6,629$8$8650.00082%
Winter Weather$5,248,071,405$56,054,49222,885$3,337$359$240,562under 0.0001%$150,000

Totals since 2016-07-18 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 12 county-coded records, 12 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $360,000; 11 zone-level records, 9 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $5,150,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $168,241.27 on 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population22,885
Building value (total, not at risk)$5,248,071,405
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$56,054,492
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$4,674,697
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,690,978
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition5Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1050602
of which: Marion village0010100
of which: Osceola township1020301
of which: Evart township0020201
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0040400

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Evart city2603270000000
Hersey village2604890000000
Le Roy village2613080000000
Marion village2603280010100
Reed City city2613100000000
Tustin village2613070000000
Burdell township2613020000000
Cedar township2613060000000
Evart township2608100020201
Hartwick township2613030000000
Hersey township2609140000000
Highland township2612990000000
Le Roy township2613040000000
Lincoln township2613000000000
Marion township2613110000000
Middle Branch township2609520000000
Orient township2613010000000
Osceola township2607971020301
Richmond township2610250000000
Rose Lake township2613050000000
Sherman township2613090000000
Sylvan township2609820000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1050602
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 5 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Osceola County, MI: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 26133). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mi/26133/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.