Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Frederick County, MD

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
24021
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-05-18. Plan: Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151), approved 2022-05-19.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-05-19: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 169 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($32,236,722 a year), Tornado ($3,496,516) and Heat Wave ($3,099,251).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-05-18
Plan:
Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)
Approved:
2022-05-19
Days to expiry:
230
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-05-19)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): EM-3634-MD (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
169 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 6 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 25
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 13 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Frederick CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Brunswick cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-05-31
Burkittsville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2023-03-27
Emmitsburg townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-11-07
Frederick cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-06-08
Middletown townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-10-10
Mount Airy townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan. this jurisdiction approved 2022-11-07
Myersville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-07-12
New Market townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-08-11
Rosemont villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2023-03-27
Thurmont townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-05-24
Walkersville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-12-14
Woodsboro townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18Frederick County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108151)2022-05-192027-05-18230FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2023-05-09

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$26,535,414$23,421$5,677,887$32,236,722310
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,735,406$3,981$1,757,129$3,496,51622
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderateunder $1$1,812$3,097,438$3,099,25145
4HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$1,969,427$553,749$80,975$2,604,1522
5Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively High$369,244$61,612$1,589,970$2,020,825616Includes 34 High Wind and 28 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,323,934n/a$367,496$1,691,430Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$93,342n/a$1,135,047$1,228,38923
8HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,019,637$36,466$1,503$1,057,60570
9DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$898,243n/a$898,24312
10Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$73,775$215,434$421,186$710,39664Includes 45 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
11Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively High$48,799$61$596,027$644,887226
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$39,977n/a$111,215$151,1928
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$15,469$10$3,286$18,7650No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$6,053n/a$591$6,6430No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15AvalancheVery LowVery Low$0n/a$66$660No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 7529 (Very Low, 12.1); tract 7516 (Very Low, 11.8); tract 7525.02 (Very Low, 11.3)
Earthquaketract 7510.03 (Relatively Low, 70.6); tract 7506 (Relatively Low, 68.4); tract 7722 (Relatively Low, 68.0)
Hurricanetract 7523.02 (Relatively Low, 77.6); tract 7675 (Relatively Low, 76.5); tract 7510.03 (Relatively Low, 76.4)
Landslidetract 7529 (Relatively Low, 92.5); tract 7522.01 (Relatively Low, 90.4); tract 7528.02 (Relatively Low, 88.2)
Tornadotract 7510.03 (Relatively Moderate, 60.7); tract 7505.05 (Relatively Moderate, 57.0); tract 7523.02 (Relatively Moderate, 55.5)
Wildfiretract 7529 (Relatively Low, 77.3); tract 7528.02 (Relatively Low, 77.0); tract 7528.01 (Very Low, 66.4)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 7529 is Census Tract 7529). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill19 records, 1998 to 2026 (19 zone-level)1 day to 11 days (median 2 days); 17 with a recorded value11 consecutive days, 2026-01-23 to 2026-02-02, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage45 records, 1997 to 2020 (45 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 1997-04-10, $112,000 crop damage (1997 dollars); NWS zone MDZ004Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)12 records, 1997 to 2007 (12 zone-level)22 days to 140 days (median 31 days); 5 with a recorded value140 days (about 4.6 months), 1999-05-01 to 1999-09-17, a run of 5 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1997-07-01, property not reported; $14,200,000 crops (zone total, 1997 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)86 records, 1957 to 20250.75 in to 2.5 in (median 1 in); 85 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 2018-05-15; same size also recorded on 2000-05-10Hail, 2008-07-26, $5,000 property; $5,000 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Frederick city (18 records), Myersville town (5 records), Brunswick city (4 records), Burkittsville town (3 records), Walkersville town (3 records), Thurmont town (2 records), Middletown town (1 record), New Market town (1 record), Woodsboro town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)45 records, 1996 to 2025 (45 zone-level)1 day to 8 days (median 2 days); 34 with a recorded value8 consecutive days, 2002-08-12 to 2002-08-19, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson2 records, 2008 to 2011 (2 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2011-08-27 to 2011-08-28, $5,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars); NWS zone MDZ004Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)8 records, 1996 to 2022 (8 zone-level)Ice Storm, 1998-01-15, $10,000 property; $15,000 crops (1998 dollars); NWS zone MDZ004Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)310 records, 1996 to 2025 (23 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2018-05-15, $43,200,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Emmitsburg town (31 records), Frederick city (19 records), Walkersville town (12 records), Thurmont town (11 records), Brunswick city (8 records), Woodsboro town (4 records), Middletown town (3 records), Myersville town (2 records), New Market town (2 records), Rosemont village (1 record). Zone-level records (23) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)23 records, 1996 to 2021Lightning, 2002-08-03, damage not reported, 1 direct deathLightning, 2000-08-07, $750,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Frederick city (6 records), Brunswick city (1 record), Middletown town (1 record), New Market town (1 record), Thurmont town (1 record), Walkersville town (1 record), Woodsboro town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)62 records, 1996 to 2026 (60 zone-level)30 kt (35 mph) to 66 kt (76 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 43 with a recorded value66 kt (76 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2025-02-16; NWS zone MDZ004High Wind, 2012-10-29, $1,210,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Thurmont town (1 record), Walkersville town (1 record). Zone-level records (60) apply countywide.
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)629 records, 1958 to 202639 kt (45 mph) to 76 kt (87 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 517 with a recorded value76 kt (87 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1992-01-14Thunderstorm Wind, 2026-06-14, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (2026 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Frederick city (46 records), Brunswick city (21 records), Middletown town (20 records), Myersville town (17 records), New Market town (17 records), Thurmont town (17 records), Emmitsburg town (16 records), Walkersville town (11 records), Woodsboro town (10 records), Rosemont village (8 records); and 2 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)38 records, 1952 to 2021F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 38 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1983-05-22, 1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 37 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)Tornado, 1999-08-14, $800,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Frederick city (3 records), Brunswick city (2 records), Mount Airy town (1 record), Rosemont village (1 record), Thurmont town (1 record), Woodsboro town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)226 records, 1996 to 2026 (225 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2003-02-14, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars); NWS zone MDZ004No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (225) apply countywide.

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 23 declarations covering 19 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3634-MDEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-03-262020-01-20DR-4491-MDMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$17,872,911.05
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3430-MDEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4491
2018-06-252018-05-15DR-4374-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$4,623,608.13
2016-03-042016-01-22DR-4261-MDMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$1,711,274.58
2012-11-202012-10-26DR-4091-MDMajor disasterHurricane SandyHurricane$964,316.19
2012-10-282012-10-26EM-3349-MDEmergencyHurricane SandyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4091
2011-08-272011-08-26EM-3335-MDEmergencyHurricane IreneHurricane$25,929.70
2010-05-062010-02-05DR-1910-MDMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and SnowstormsWinter Weather$1,060,682.63
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3251-MDEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-09-192003-09-18DR-1492-MDMajor disasterHurricane IsabelHurricane$573,511.43
2003-03-142003-02-14EM-3179-MDEmergencySnowWinter Weather$400,921.30
2000-04-102000-01-25DR-1324-MDMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$337,334.07
1996-09-171996-09-06DR-1139-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms and Flooding Assoc with Tropical Storm FranHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1996-01-231996-01-19DR-1094-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-111996-01-06DR-1081-MDMajor disasterBlizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1994-03-161994-02-08DR-1016-MDMajor disasterSevere Winter Weather and Ice StormsWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Ice Stormno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-161993-03-13EM-3100-MDEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1979-09-141979-09-14DR-601-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1976-10-141976-10-14DR-522-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1975-10-041975-10-04DR-489-MDMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1972-06-231972-06-23DR-341-MDMajor disasterTropical Storm AgnesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Hurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1971-08-171971-08-17DR-309-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1962-03-091962-03-09DR-127-MDMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $18,663.97

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4170-MD2014-04-10SnowstormMount Airy$18,663.97

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Maryland county: 1 row, $112,415.86; listed on the Maryland state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave64404001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 45 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought12000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail86707001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave45111001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane2000501996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm8101101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding31066819801996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning23010001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind69112632131001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 34 High Wind and 28 Strong Wind records.
Tornado38000101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather22624731811996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-02-16High Wind66 kt (76 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2022-12-23High Wind50 kt (58 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)1, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2019-07-21Excessive Heatdamage not reported1, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2018-05-15Flash Flood$43,200,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0FT DETRICK to GROVEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2018-05-15Hail2.5 indamage not reported0, 0FREDERICKB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2011-08-27Tropical Storm$5,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2006-06-27Flash Flood$500,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)5, 1COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
2002-08-12Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2002-08-03Lightningdamage not reported1, 0FREDERICKB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1999-05-01Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MDZ004 (FREDERICK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
1992-01-14Thunderstorm Wind76 kt (87 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1983-05-22TornadoF3, 1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 37 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,505 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave1.79event-days per yearabout 1.79 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)342005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought3.97event-days per yearabout 3.97 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)1612000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00109annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.109%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.78events per yearabout 3.78 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)143.6 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave4.21event-days per yearabout 4.21 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)712005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0888events per yearabout 1 in 11 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)321851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1event-day per yearabout 1 day per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)681946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding4.68event-days per yearabout 4.68 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 26 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (86.7%)1311996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.606events per year (modeled)about 0.61 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning37.3days per year with a strikeabout 37.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind7.7events per yearabout 7.7 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2931986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.453events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000718annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00718%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather14.3event-days per yearabout 14.3 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)2722005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202547301.57
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 20254713015.7
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202515300.5
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202551301.7
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202521300.7
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche5 of 659.411.312.1Very Low 5, Not Applicable 60
Cold Wave65 of 6517.822.738.5Relatively Low 61, Very Low 4
Drought56 of 6567.483.896.3Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 32, Very Low 16, No Rating 9
Earthquake65 of 6515.335.270.6Relatively Low 21, Very Low 44
Hail65 of 6537.859.781.2Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 58
Heat Wave65 of 6517.350.280.1Relatively Moderate 19, Relatively Low 46
Hurricane65 of 6549.860.777.6Relatively Low 63, Very Low 2
Ice Storm65 of 656.824.548.7Relatively Low 14, Very Low 51
Inland Flooding65 of 651.225.086.5Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 37, Very Low 16
Landslide65 of 659.765.492.5Relatively Low 16, Very Low 49
Lightning65 of 6527.958.487.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 45, Relatively Low 17
Strong Wind65 of 6531.061.583.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 46, Relatively Low 18
Tornado65 of 6526.742.560.7Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 59, Very Low 3
Wildfire63 of 6519.538.777.3Relatively Low 2, Very Low 61, No Rating 2
Winter Weather65 of 6550.077.293.1Relatively High 27, Relatively Moderate 38

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Frederick CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 5; any 20$913,441.130 total; 0 since its planIncludes $585,762.36 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4491-MD).
Brunswick cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$324,241.2936 total; 3 since its plan
Burkittsville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$38,625.777 total; 0 since its plan
Emmitsburg townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$48,740.0447 total; 3 since its plan
Frederick cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 4$2,410,138.7692 total; 13 since its plan
Middletown townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$55,918.9525 total; 4 since its plan
Mount Airy townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$129,181.822 total; 0 since its plan
Myersville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$172,258.0824 total; 4 since its plan
New Market townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$21,104.5921 total; 3 since its plan
Rosemont villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded10 total; 3 since its plan
Thurmont townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$58,218.7633 total; 3 since its plan
Walkersville townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$61,274.5328 total; 1 since its plan
Woodsboro townTownApproved, expires 2027-05-18FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$30,352.1017 total; 3 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-05-19county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$0n/aunder 1$0n/a$66building exposure is 0 in NRI
Cold Wave$55,998,831,154$169,431,879271,433$73,775$215,434$421,1860.000132%$0
Droughtn/a$71,943,474n/an/a$898,243n/a1.25% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$94,521,594,948n/a271,717$1,323,934n/a$367,4960.0014%
Hail$55,998,864,278$169,431,879271,433$1,019,637$36,466$1,5030.00182%
Heat Wave$55,998,831,154$169,431,879271,433under $1$1,812$3,097,438under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$55,992,126,289$168,865,832271,384$1,969,427$553,749$80,9750.00352%
Ice Storm$55,981,260,908n/a271,400$39,977n/a$111,215under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$55,975,145,460$8,527,2162,831$26,535,414$23,421$5,677,887n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,979,406,861n/a10,571$6,053n/a$5910.000306%
Lightning$55,998,864,278n/a271,433$93,342n/a$1,135,0470.000167%
Strong Wind$55,998,864,278$169,431,879271,433$369,244$61,612$1,589,9700.000659%$3,103,000$0
Tornado$55,998,864,278$169,431,879271,433$1,735,406$3,981$1,757,1290.0031%
Wildfire$5,065,402,310$21,130,17430,656$15,469$10$3,2860.000305%
Winter Weather$55,998,831,154$169,431,879271,433$48,799$61$596,027under 0.0001%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2022-05-19 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 133 county-coded records, 119 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $3,103,000; 36 zone-level records, 16 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population271,433
Building value (total, not at risk)$55,998,864,278
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$169,431,879
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$35,025,265
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$14,839,816
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)6
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition25Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total062562502
of which: Frederick County (unincorporated area)052052001
of which: Brunswick city0010100
of which: Frederick city0141401

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Frederick County240027052052001
Brunswick city2400280010100
Burkittsville town2401640000000
Emmitsburg town2400290000000
Frederick city2400300141401
Middletown town2401620000000
Mount Airy town2402000000000
Myersville town2401160000000
New Market town2400880000000
Rosemont village2400850000000
Thurmont town2400310000000
Walkersville town2400320000000
Woodsboro town2400330000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential052052002
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0151500
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 25 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Frederick County, MD: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 24021). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/md/24021/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]