Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Natchitoches Parish, LA

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
22069
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-04-09. Plan: Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591), approved 2023-04-10.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-04-10: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 125 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($6,729,720 a year), Heat Wave ($1,529,762) and Tornado ($1,472,212).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-04-09
Plan:
Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)
Approved:
2023-04-10
Days to expiry:
557

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-04-10)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3614-LA (Tropical Storm Francine), EM-3638-LA (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
125 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 7, SRL 16 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 51
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Natchitoches ParishCountyApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Ashland villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Campti townTownApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Clarence villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Goldonna villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Natchez villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Natchitoches cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Powhatan villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Provencal villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557
Robeline villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09Natchitoches Parish (FEMA plan 108591)2023-04-102028-04-09557

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$5,938,032$16,622$775,065$6,729,72097
2Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$157$751$1,528,854$1,529,76288
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,043,116$3,960$425,136$1,472,21245
4Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$566,286$8,984$699,332$1,274,602234Includes 4 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$474,674$209,712$21,687$706,0726
6HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$473,692$16,183$22,537$512,413113
7LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$26,229n/a$264,675$290,9046
8EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$213,659n/a$67,912$281,572Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$142,469n/a$106,420$248,8893
10DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$196,472n/a$196,47249
11Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$13,004$57,178$87,662$157,8446
12Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$35,432$358$8,448$44,23821
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$30,468$153$5,948$36,5694
14LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$2,241n/a$89$2,3300No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 7 (Relatively Low, 65.2); tract 5 (Relatively Low, 58.1); tract 6.01 (Relatively Low, 57.5)
Hurricanetract 9.02 (Relatively Moderate, 82.2); tract 3 (Relatively Moderate, 79.4); tract 7 (Relatively Moderate, 79.3)
Landslidetract 9.02 (Relatively Low, 93.4); tract 8 (Relatively Low, 93.0); tract 3 (Relatively Low, 88.5)
Tornadotract 7 (Relatively High, 84.8); tract 6.01 (Relatively High, 75.5); tract 5 (Relatively High, 75.3)
Wildfiretract 9.02 (Relatively Low, 85.4); tract 8 (Relatively Low, 85.3); tract 3 (Relatively Low, 85.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 7 is Census Tract 7). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill6 records, 2010 to 2026 (6 zone-level)2 days to 4 days (median 3 days); 6 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2026-01-24 to 2026-01-27, zone-levelCold/Wind Chill, 2010-01-07, $250,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)49 records, 1998 to 2026 (49 zone-level)31 days to 488 days (median 70 days); 11 with a recorded value488 days (16 months), 2010-10-01 to 2012-01-31, a run of 16 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)207 records, 1962 to 20260.5 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 207 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1983-04-01Hail, 1994-05-07, $50,000 property; crops not recorded (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Natchitoches city (28 records), Provencal village (12 records), Campti town (9 records), Robeline village (9 records), Powhatan village (5 records), Natchez village (4 records), Clarence village (3 records), Ashland village (2 records), Goldonna village (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)88 records, 2011 to 2025 (88 zone-level)1 day to 94 days (median 5 days); 57 with a recorded value2011-06-01 to 2011-09-02 (4 records, 3 of them monthly summary records), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson6 records, 2005 to 2020 (6 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2008-09-01, $750,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars); NWS zone LAZ018Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 1997 to 1998 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)97 records, 1997 to 2026 (2 zone-level)Flood, 2009-10-16, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Natchitoches city (25 records), Campti town (10 records), Natchez village (7 records), Clarence village (3 records), Provencal village (3 records), Ashland village (2 records), Powhatan village (1 record), Robeline village (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)6 records, 1997 to 2014Lightning, 2014-07-15, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Goldonna village (2 records), Natchitoches city (2 records), Robeline village (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)5 records, 1997 to 2016 (5 zone-level)46 kt (53 mph) to 55 kt (63 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 4 with a recorded value55 kt (63 mph) estimated, High Wind, 2002-10-03; NWS zone LAZ018Strong Wind, 2008-03-18, $20,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)340 records, 1962 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 100 kt (115 mph) (median 54 kt (62 mph)); 241 with a recorded value100 kt (115 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-02-10Thunderstorm Wind, 2009-05-03, $5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Natchitoches city (73 records), Campti town (24 records), Provencal village (13 records), Robeline village (10 records), Goldonna village (8 records), Natchez village (8 records), Powhatan village (8 records), Clarence village (3 records), Ashland village (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)68 records, 1950 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 67 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1974-03-20, 23.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 77 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars), 18 direct injuriesTornado, 1976-04-20, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1976 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Powhatan village (6 records), Campti town (5 records), Natchez village (4 records), Natchitoches city (4 records), Goldonna village (3 records), Provencal village (2 records), Robeline village (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)4 records, 2010 to 2016 (4 zone-level)Wildfire, 2010-10-11, $0 property; $1,880,000 crops (2010 dollars); NWS zone LAZ018Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)21 records, 2006 to 2026 (21 zone-level)No damage reported in 21 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 41 declarations covering 29 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3638-LAEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weather$28,486.85new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-09-102024-09-10EM-3614-LAEmergencyTropical Storm FrancineHurricane (primary); also designated: Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-09-132021-09-12EM-3574-LAEmergencyTropical Storm NicholasHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2021-08-292021-08-26DR-4611-LAMajor disasterHurricane IdaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2021-08-272021-08-26EM-3568-LAEmergencyTropical Storm IdaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4611
2021-03-092021-02-11DR-4590-LAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$255,589.62
2021-02-182021-02-11EM-3556-LAEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4590
2020-10-272020-10-26EM-3549-LAEmergencyTropical Storm ZetaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-10-162020-10-06DR-4570-LAMajor disasterHurricane DeltaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-10-072020-10-06EM-3547-LAEmergencyHurricane DeltaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4570
2020-09-142020-09-13EM-3543-LAEmergencyHurricane SallyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-08-282020-08-22DR-4559-LAMajor disasterHurricane LauraHurricane$5,215,814.23
2020-08-232020-08-22EM-3538-LAEmergencyTropical Storms Laura and MarcoHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4559
2020-06-072020-06-05EM-3527-LAEmergencyTropical Storm CristobalHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-242020-01-20DR-4484-LAMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$206,000.42
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3459-LAEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4484
2017-10-162017-08-28DR-4345-LAMajor disasterTropical Storm HarveyHurricane$92,493.58
2017-08-282017-08-27EM-3382-LAEmergencyTropical Storm HarveyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4345
2016-03-132016-03-08DR-4263-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$2,659,183.38
2015-07-132015-05-18DR-4228-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$6,257,511.32
2012-08-292012-08-26DR-4080-LAMajor disasterHurricane IsaacHurricane$6,431.64
2012-08-272012-08-26EM-3347-LAEmergencyTropical Storm IsaacHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4080
2009-12-102009-10-29DR-1863-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$62,981.86
2008-09-132008-09-11DR-1792-LAMajor disasterHurricane IkeHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$14,529.39
2008-09-022008-09-01DR-1786-LAMajor disasterHurricane GustavHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$2,697,066.23
2008-08-292008-08-27EM-3289-LAEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1786
2006-11-022006-10-16DR-1668-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$2,513,635.72
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1607-LAMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane$7,032,809.56
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3260-LAEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1607
2005-08-292005-08-29DR-1603-LAMajor disasterHurricane KatrinaHurricane$231,579.34
2005-08-272005-08-26EM-3212-LAEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1603
2003-02-012003-02-01EM-3172-LAEmergencyLoss of Space Shuttle ColumbiaNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-10-032002-10-01DR-1437-LAMajor disasterHurricane LiliHurricane$26,641.60
2000-09-112000-09-08FM-2337-LAFire managementLa-Western Louisiana Fire Complex-9/8/00Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-01-211998-12-22DR-1264-LAMajor disasterSevere Ice StormIce Storm$166,302.13
1991-05-031991-04-27DR-904-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1991-04-231991-04-12DR-902-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1989-07-171989-06-25DR-835-LAMajor disasterTropical Storm AllisonInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Hurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-201989-05-04DR-829-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1983-01-111983-01-11DR-675-LAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1977-02-221977-02-22EM-3031-LAEmergencyDrought & FreezingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Droughtno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-10-031964-10-03DR-178-LAMajor disasterHurricane HildaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1962-11-051962-11-05DR-139-LAMajor disasterChlorine Barge AccidentNon-natural, not counted
1958-05-201958-05-20DR-84-LAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-05-161957-05-16DR-73-LAMajor disasterFloods & HurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1956-10-041956-10-04DR-64-LAMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1953-05-291953-05-29DR-3-LAMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6213001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought4916020101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail20712619001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave88341145001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane60001611996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm3000201996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding97101111101996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning6000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind345451160001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 4 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado68307311950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire4000101996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather21303211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2022-07-16Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)1, 0NWS zone LAZ018 (NATCHITOCHES), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2016-03-12Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)1, 2CLEAR LAKEdeaths or injuries recorded
2014-07-15Lightning$200,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0NATCHITOCHES MUNIB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2011-06-01Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone LAZ018 (NATCHITOCHES), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2010-10-01Droughtproperty not reported; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone LAZ018 (NATCHITOCHES), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2009-10-16Flood$2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0CAMPTI to NATCHITOCHESB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2008-09-01Tropical Storm$750,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone LAZ018 (NATCHITOCHES), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2002-10-03High Wind55 kt (63 mph) estimateddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone LAZ018 (NATCHITOCHES), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1998-02-10Thunderstorm Wind100 kt (115 mph), measurement type not recorded$3,000,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0NATCHITOCHESB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1983-04-01Hail2.75 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1976-04-20TornadoF1, 0.4 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 60 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1976 dollars)1, 27location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1974-03-20TornadoF3, 23.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 77 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars)0, 18location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (900 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.579event-days per yearabout 0.579 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)112005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought33.5event-days per yearabout 33.5 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)1,1272000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.0012annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.12%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.48events per yearabout 3.48 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)132.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave21.7event-days per yearabout 21.7 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)3542005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0632events per yearabout 1 in 16 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)241851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.01event-days per yearabout 1.01 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)691946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.36event-days per yearabout 1.36 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)381996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.494events per year (modeled)about 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning70.5days per year with a strikeabout 70.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.94events per yearabout 3.94 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1511986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado1.09events per yearabout 1.09 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000651annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0651%LikelyStorm Events records in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather2.37event-days per yearabout 2.37 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)452005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202562302.07
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025193306.43
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202527300.9
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202537301.23
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20257300.233
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave11 of 1125.827.542.1Relatively Low 11
Drought10 of 1178.787.196.3Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 1, No Rating 1
Earthquake11 of 1130.753.365.2Relatively Low 9, Very Low 2
Hail11 of 1179.484.992.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 10
Heat Wave11 of 1178.891.094.8Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane11 of 1170.773.882.2Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 8
Ice Storm11 of 1183.989.592.5Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 8
Inland Flooding11 of 1127.966.985.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 4
Landslide11 of 1138.071.593.4Relatively Low 4, Very Low 7
Lightning11 of 1165.285.893.4Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 4
Strong Wind11 of 1190.095.697.3Very High 2, Relatively High 9
Tornado11 of 1158.672.184.8Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 7
Wildfire10 of 1141.374.185.4Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4, No Rating 1
Winter Weather11 of 1151.868.080.9Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 10

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Natchitoches ParishCountyApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 6, SRL 12; any 41$5,111,985.550 total; 0 since its planIncludes $72,538.76 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4484-LA).
Ashland villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded6 total; 0 since its plan
Campti townTownApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$28,406.2948 total; 7 since its plan
Clarence villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 3; any 4$16,524.609 total; 3 since its plan
Goldonna villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded15 total; 0 since its plan
Natchez villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$97,667.1623 total; 3 since its plan
Natchitoches cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 4$3,038,568.79132 total; 5 since its plan
Powhatan villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded20 total; 3 since its plan
Provencal villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,519.7030 total; 6 since its plan
Robeline villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded23 total; 5 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-04-10county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$13,004$57,178$87,6620.000152%$0
Droughtn/a$29,593,983n/an/a$196,472n/a0.664% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$15,020,024,383n/a37,515$213,659n/a$67,9120.00142%
Hail$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$473,692$16,183$22,5370.00554%$0
Heat Wave$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$157$751$1,528,854under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$8,545,559,113$125,819,95637,319$474,674$209,712$21,6870.00555%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Ice Storm$8,549,461,697n/a37,330$142,469n/a$106,4200.00167%
Inland Flooding$8,530,238,401$95,722,6764,265$5,938,032$16,622$775,065n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$83,113,285n/a332$2,241n/a$890.0027%
Lightning$8,549,461,697n/a37,330$26,229n/a$264,6750.000307%
Strong Wind$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$566,286$8,984$699,3320.00662%$0
Tornado$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$1,043,116$3,960$425,1360.0122%$100,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$666,990,282$32,785,0146,242$30,468$153$5,9480.00457%
Winter Weather$8,549,461,697$126,892,84437,330$35,432$358$8,4480.000414%$0$28,486.85

Totals since 2023-04-10 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 70 county-coded records, 70 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $100,000; 55 zone-level records, 55 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $28,486.85 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population37,330
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,549,461,697
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$126,892,844
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$9,469,833
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$4,013,766
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)7Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)16
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition49Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition13

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total71649135118
of which: Natchitoches Parish (unincorporated area)61240104116
of which: Clarence village0343401
of which: Natchitoches city1130400
of which: Natchez village0020201
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0040400

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Natchitoches Parish22012961240104116
Ashland village2202630000000
Campti town2204010000000
Clarence village2201300343401
Goldonna village2202900000000
Natchez village2203700020201
Natchitoches city2201311130400
Powhatan village2203060000000
Provencal village2201320000000
Robeline village2201330000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential51444114616
2 to 4 unit residential1111100
other residential0000000
non-residential1141402
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 42 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Natchitoches Parish, LA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 22069). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/la/22069/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]