Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Nicholas County, KY

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
21181
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-05-24. Plan: BlueGrass ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108257), approved 2022-05-25.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-05-25: 7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents) and 17 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,231,803 a year), Tornado ($445,085) and Strong Wind ($340,189).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-05-24
Plan:
BlueGrass ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108257)
Approved:
2022-05-25
Days to expiry:
236
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-05-25)

New federal declarations:
7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents): DR-4702-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4848-KY (Remnants of Hurricane Helene), EM-3624-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4860-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3626-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4864-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
17 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 3 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 8
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Nicholas County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-05-24BlueGrass ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108257)2022-05-252027-05-24236this jurisdiction approved 2023-07-18
Carlisle cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-24BlueGrass ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108257)2022-05-252027-05-24236this jurisdiction approved 2023-07-18

Plan 108257 covers 45 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowVery Low$2,867,339$24,678$339,786$3,231,80366
2TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$185,423$1,076$258,586$445,0850Declared 12 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
3Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$82,023$15,982$242,184$340,18963Includes 5 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
4Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$322$21,574$112,118$134,0146Includes 6 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
5EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$66,805n/a$22,002$88,807Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6LightningRelatively LowVery Low$3,555n/a$77,724$81,2790No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7HailVery LowVery Low$37,871$18,500$6,458$62,8294
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$4$23$53,933$53,9590No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
9Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$4,330$1$16,019$20,35024
10Ice StormRelatively LowVery Low$9,389n/a$7,876$17,2655
11HurricaneVery LowVery Low$6,976$2,928$53$9,9570Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
12DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$8,448n/a$8,4480No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$82n/a$1,126$1,2070Declared 11 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
14WildfireVery LowVery Low$362$5$174$5420No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, landslide and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9602 (Relatively Low, 72.6); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 51.1)
Hurricanetract 9602 (Relatively Low, 53.3); tract 9601 (Very Low, 42.0)
Landslidetract 9602 (Relatively Low, 92.3); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 90.7)
Tornadotract 9602 (Relatively High, 92.6); tract 9601 (Relatively Moderate, 73.4)
Wildfiretract 9602 (Very Low, 61.2); tract 9601 (Very Low, 48.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9602 is Census Tract 9602). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage6 records, 2016 to 2025 (6 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 6 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)5 records, 1974 to 20110.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1.75 in); 5 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2011-05-10Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carlisle city (4 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 2003 to 2022 (5 zone-level)No damage reported in 5 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)66 records, 1996 to 2023 (17 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2021-07-30, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars), 1 direct deathEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carlisle city (17 records). Zone-level records (17) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)5 records, 2010 to 2024 (5 zone-level)51 kt (59 mph) to 59 kt (68 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 5 with a recorded value59 kt (68 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2023-03-03; NWS zone KYZ043High Wind, 2016-04-02, $5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)71 records, 1974 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 60 with a recorded value87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2008-02-06, 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carlisle city (31 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)1 record, 1986F/EF1; 1 with a recorded valueF1 tornado, 1986-03-12, 0.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1986 dollars), 3 direct injuriesNo event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)24 records, 1996 to 2026 (24 zone-level)No damage reported in 24 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 32 declarations covering 26 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3633-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-242025-04-02DR-4864-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$439,136.44new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-032025-04-02EM-3626-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4864
2025-02-242025-02-14DR-4860-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind$30,737.05new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-02-162025-02-14EM-3624-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4860
2024-11-262024-09-27DR-4848-KYMajor disasterRemnants of Hurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslide, Strong Wind$104,500.77new since last plan; within last 5 years
2023-04-102023-03-03DR-4702-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$20,682.97new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-03-312021-02-08DR-4592-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Landslides, and MudslidesIce Storm$11,983.72
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4497-KYMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3469-KYEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4497
2019-04-172019-02-06DR-4428-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
2015-08-122015-07-11DR-4239-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslideInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$55,353.50
2015-05-122015-03-03DR-4218-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Snowstorm, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weather$24,251.88
2015-05-012015-04-02DR-4217-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$48,960.47
2011-05-042011-04-12DR-1976-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$319,425.12
2010-05-112010-05-01DR-1912-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Landslide; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2009-02-052009-01-26DR-1818-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingIce Storm$71,129.26
2009-01-282009-01-27EM-3302-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1818
2008-05-192008-04-03DR-1757-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Mudslides, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$150,826.72
2008-02-212008-02-05DR-1746-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, andStrong Wind; Tornado$33,041.73
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3231-KYEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-06-102004-05-26DR-1523-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2003-06-032003-05-04DR-1471-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mud and Rock Slides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$43,634.28
2003-03-142003-02-15DR-1454-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice and Snow Storms, Heavy Rain, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Mud andInland Flooding; Tornado; Winter Weather$93,173.82
2002-04-042002-03-17DR-1407-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
2000-02-282000-02-18DR-1320-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$59,390.47
1998-03-031998-02-04DR-1207-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1997-03-041997-03-01DR-1163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-05DR-1089-KYMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1994-03-161994-02-09DR-1018-KYMajor disasterSevere Weather, Freezing Rain, Sleet, SnwWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-161993-03-13EM-3104-KYEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1989-02-241989-01-13DR-821-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-03-131963-03-13DR-148-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-121962-03-12DR-128-KYMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-01-311957-01-31DR-66-KYMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6101001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 6 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail5000001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000111996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm5011201996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding661511841996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide00001141996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 11 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind7612012741955 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 High Wind records.
Tornado10001221950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather24314711996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-07-27Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)1, 0HOOKTOWNnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2023-03-03High Wind59 kt (68 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone KYZ043 (NICHOLAS), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2021-07-30Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)1, 0MILLER to HENRYVILLEin the 12 months before plan approvaldeaths or injuries recorded
2021-07-29Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)0, 0CARLISLE to MILLERin the 12 months before plan approvallarge reported damage
2016-04-02High Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust$5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ043 (NICHOLAS), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2011-05-10Hail2.75 in$20,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0CARLISLEB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2008-02-06Thunderstorm Wind87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust$300,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)0, 1CARLISLE to HENRYVILLEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-07-20Flash Floodproperty not reported; $1,000,000 crops (1998 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDElarge reported damage
1990-05-16Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 2location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1987-07-06Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1986-03-12Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1986-03-12TornadoF1, 0.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1986 dollars)0, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (183 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.26event-days per yearabout 1.26 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)242005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought2.77event-days per yearabout 2.77 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)702000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00186annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.186%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.18events per yearabout 3.18 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)120.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.53event-days per yearabout 2.53 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)392005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.0158events per yearabout 1 in 63 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)41851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.595event-days per yearabout 0.595 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)401946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.82event-days per yearabout 1.82 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)511996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.551events per year (modeled)about 0.55 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning50.3days per year with a strikeabout 50.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.63events per yearabout 4.63 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1761986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0889events per yearabout 1 in 11 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000142annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0142%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather11.6event-days per yearabout 11.6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)2202005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20252300.0667
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202551301.7
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20250300
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave2 of 247.761.875.9Relatively Moderate 2
Drought2 of 284.585.686.7Relatively Low 2
Earthquake2 of 251.161.972.6Relatively Low 2
Hail2 of 272.479.185.9Relatively Moderate 2
Heat Wave2 of 225.044.864.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Hurricane2 of 242.047.653.3Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Ice Storm2 of 260.370.881.3Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Inland Flooding2 of 283.791.298.6Very High 1, Relatively High 1
Landslide2 of 290.791.592.3Relatively Low 2
Lightning2 of 276.487.197.8Very High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind2 of 291.495.499.3Very High 1, Relatively High 1
Tornado2 of 273.483.092.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire2 of 248.054.661.2Very Low 2
Winter Weather2 of 272.983.393.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Nicholas County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-05-24FMA RL 0, SRL 3; any 5$1,401,137.620 total; 0 since its plan
Carlisle cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$100,014.1352 total; 5 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-05-25county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,737,576,277$33,387,2357,537$322$21,574$112,118under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$15,875,906n/an/a$8,448n/a0.0532% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$2,962,939,676n/a7,537$66,805n/a$22,0020.00225%
Hail$1,737,580,978$33,387,2357,537$37,871$18,500$6,4580.00218%
Heat Wave$1,737,576,277$33,387,2357,537$4$23$53,933under 0.0001%
Hurricane$1,737,576,277$33,296,0237,537$6,976$2,928$530.000402%$104,500.77
Ice Storm$1,737,576,277n/a7,537$9,389n/a$7,8760.00054%
Inland Flooding$1,736,590,569$2,175,492353$2,867,339$24,678$339,786n/a (see note)$0$595,057.23NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$227,519,129n/a998$82n/a$1,126under 0.0001%$595,057.23
Lightning$1,737,580,978n/a7,537$3,555n/a$77,7240.000205%
Strong Wind$1,737,580,978$33,387,2357,537$82,023$15,982$242,1840.00472%$0$0$595,057.23
Tornado$1,737,580,978$33,387,2357,537$185,423$1,076$258,5860.0107%$459,819.41
Wildfire$81,129,729$5,085,099850$362$5$1740.000447%
Winter Weather$1,737,576,277$33,387,2357,537$4,330$1$16,0190.000249%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2022-05-25 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 10 county-coded records, 9 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 7 zone-level records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $595,057.23 on 7 counted declarations, 4 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population7,537
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,737,580,978
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$33,387,235
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$3,357,696
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,138,038
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition8Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition3

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0383801
of which: Nicholas County (unincorporated area)0353500
of which: Carlisle city0030301

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Nicholas County (unincorporated area)2101810353500
Carlisle city2101820030301

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0161601
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0222200
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 8 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Nicholas County, KY: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 21181). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ky/21181/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]