Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Livingston County, KY

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
21139
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-04-13. Plan: Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982), approved 2023-04-14.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-04-14: 7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents): DR-4804-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3624-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4860-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3626-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4864-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4875-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 55 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,286,838 a year), Earthquake ($1,718,002) and Tornado ($1,000,492).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 2.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-04-13
Plan:
Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)
Approved:
2023-04-14
Days to expiry:
561

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-04-14)

New federal declarations:
7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents): DR-4804-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3624-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4860-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3626-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4864-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), DR-4875-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
55 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 2
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Livingston County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2028-04-13Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)2023-04-142028-04-13561this jurisdiction approved 2024-02-21
Carrsville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)2023-04-142028-04-13561this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-16
Grand Rivers cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)2023-04-142028-04-13561this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-16
Salem cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)2023-04-142028-04-13561
Smithland cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13Pennyrile ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108982)2023-04-142028-04-13561

Plan 108982 lists 37 other participants not on this page, 1 of them not covered by it yet (named in the Excel file).

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,254,800$698$31,341$2,286,83873
2EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,148,131n/a$569,871$1,718,002Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$270,932$1,584$727,976$1,000,49211
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$234,832$160,367$244,639$639,838140Includes 7 High Wind and 56 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$471,875n/a$6,751$478,6267
6DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$409,179n/a$409,17938
7Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$20$17,003$378,953$395,97663Includes 46 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
8Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$8$81$314,401$314,49080
9HailVery LowVery Low$83,656$437$741$84,83454
10LightningRelatively LowVery Low$1,718n/a$73,584$75,3021
11Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$30,883$116$12,664$43,663102
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$4,274$2,754$60$7,0890Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$1,229$7$474$1,7092
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$31n/a$285$3160Declared 10 times; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 402.01 (Relatively High, 90.0); tract 401 (Relatively High, 88.6); tract 402.02 (Relatively Moderate, 85.7)
Hurricanetract 401 (Very Low, 46.8); tract 402.01 (Very Low, 41.4); tract 402.02 (Very Low, 39.0)
Landslidetract 401 (Relatively Low, 86.2); tract 402.02 (Relatively Low, 82.4); tract 402.01 (Very Low, 68.6)
Tornadotract 402.01 (Very High, 93.8); tract 401 (Relatively High, 93.2); tract 402.02 (Relatively High, 85.3)
Wildfiretract 401 (Very Low, 63.8); tract 402.02 (Very Low, 63.1); tract 402.01 (Very Low, 62.1)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 402.01 is Census Tract 402.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill17 records, 1996 to 2026 (17 zone-level)1 day to 24 days (median 2 days); 16 with a recorded value2000-12-12 to 2001-01-04 (2 records, 1 of them a monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage46 records, 1997 to 2024 (46 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2008-04-29, $10,000 crop damage (2008 dollars); NWS zone KYZ007Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)38 records, 1996 to 2026 (38 zone-level)9 days to 217 days (median 26 days); 16 with a recorded value217 days (about 7.1 months), 2012-05-12 to 2012-12-14, a run of 8 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1999-09-01, property not reported; $7,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (1999 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)62 records, 1966 to 20250.75 in to 2.5 in (median 0.88 in); 61 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 2025-05-16; same size also recorded on 2025-05-16Hail, 2025-05-16, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Smithland city (15 records), Grand Rivers city (8 records), Salem city (4 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)80 records, 1997 to 2025 (80 zone-level)1 day to 15 days (median 2 days); 69 with a recorded value15 consecutive days, 2025-07-16 to 2025-07-30, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed). Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)7 records, 1997 to 2025 (7 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2009-01-26, $10,700,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars); NWS zone KYZ007Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)73 records, 1996 to 2025 (19 zone-level)Flood, 2011-05-01, $4,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Smithland city (23 records), Grand Rivers city (4 records), Carrsville city (3 records), Salem city (2 records). Zone-level records (19) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2004No damage or casualties reported in 1 record.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Smithland city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)63 records, 1997 to 2025 (63 zone-level)26 kt (30 mph) to 68 kt (78 mph) (median 39 kt (45 mph)); 58 with a recorded value68 kt (78 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2008-09-14; NWS zone KYZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)86 records, 1963 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 76 with a recorded value78 kt (90 mph) estimated, Thunderstorm Wind, 2002-01-24, 3 direct injuriesThunderstorm Wind, 2008-01-29, $175,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Smithland city (15 records), Salem city (14 records), Grand Rivers city (9 records), Carrsville city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)13 records, 1970 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median between F/EF1 and F/EF2); 12 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1970-04-24, 4.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, damage not recorded (pre-1996 record), 5 direct injuriesTornado, 2013-11-17, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Smithland city (3 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2004 to 2010 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)102 records, 1996 to 2026 (102 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2008-02-11, $1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars); NWS zone KYZ007Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 29 declarations covering 23 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3633-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-05-232025-05-16DR-4875-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-242025-04-02DR-4864-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$77,730.40new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-032025-04-02EM-3626-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4864
2025-02-242025-02-14DR-4860-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind$41,547.84new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-02-162025-02-14EM-3624-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4860
2024-07-232024-05-21DR-4804-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and MudslidesLandslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$9,917.10new since last plan; within last 5 years
2023-04-102023-03-03DR-4702-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4497-KYMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$5,555.32
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3469-KYEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4497
2019-04-172019-02-06DR-4428-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind$182,043.64
2018-04-262018-02-21DR-4361-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$49,403.30
2016-08-262016-07-02DR-4278-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$150,766.16
2011-05-042011-04-12DR-1976-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$486,090.44
2010-05-112010-05-01DR-1912-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$12,547.03
2009-02-052009-01-26DR-1818-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingIce Storm$1,615,666.11
2009-01-282009-01-27EM-3302-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1818
2008-10-092008-09-12DR-1802-KYMajor disasterSevere Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression IkeHurricane; Strong Wind$39,482.07
2008-05-192008-04-03DR-1757-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Mudslides, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$84,761.96
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3231-KYEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-02-082004-12-21DR-1578-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Record SnowWinter Weather$17,850.75
2003-06-032003-05-04DR-1471-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mud and Rock Slides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$43,858.13
2001-08-152001-07-27DR-1388-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$100,687.26
2000-01-102000-01-03DR-1310-KYMajor disasterTornadoes, Severe Storms, Torrential Rains, and Flash FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$65,812.54
1997-03-041997-03-01DR-1163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-05DR-1089-KYMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1994-03-161994-02-09DR-1018-KYMajor disasterSevere Weather, Freezing Rain, Sleet, SnwWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1991-01-291990-12-06DR-893-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1975-03-291975-03-29DR-461-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-03-131963-03-13DR-148-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-121962-03-12DR-128-KYMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-01-311957-01-31DR-66-KYMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave63629001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 46 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought38347001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail62809001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave8015520001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm7101101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding732041631996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide00001041996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 10 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind149111024741955 to 2026-06-30Includes 7 High Wind and 56 Strong Wind records.
Tornado131021231950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather1028517411996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-07-16Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2025-05-16Hail2.5 inproperty not reported; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0SMITHLANDnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2012-05-12Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-05-01Flood$4,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0BIRDSVILLE to LEDBETTERB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2009-05-08Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$60,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 1SMITHLANDdeaths or injuries recorded
2009-01-26Ice Storm$10,700,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2009 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2008-09-14High Wind68 kt (78 mph) measured gust$4,400,000 property; $4,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2008-04-29Frost/Freeze$0 property; $10,000 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2008-02-11Winter Storm$1,500,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2002-01-24Thunderstorm Wind78 kt (90 mph) estimated$75,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)0, 3IUKAdeaths or injuries recorded
2000-12-12Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone KYZ007 (LIVINGSTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1970-04-24TornadoF3, 4.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd widedamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 5location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (590 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.947event-days per yearabout 0.947 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 13 of 30 years)event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)182005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought6.73event-days per yearabout 6.73 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)1892000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00926annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.926%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.96events per yearabout 2.96 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)112.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave9.53event-days per yearabout 9.53 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 26 of 30 years)event-days in 26 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (86.7%)1302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0178events per yearabout 1 in 56 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)31851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.26event-days per yearabout 1.26 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)851946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.43event-days per yearabout 2.43 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 24 of 30 years)event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)681996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.704events per year (modeled)about 0.7 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning54.6days per year with a strikeabout 54.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.08events per yearabout 4.08 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1551986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.292events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000979annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00979%Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather6.89event-days per yearabout 6.89 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 28 of 30 years)event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)1312005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202522300.733
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202564302.13
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20258300.267
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20254300.133
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20254300.133
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 371.880.780.9Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Drought3 of 394.694.898.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Earthquake3 of 385.788.690.0Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Hail3 of 372.579.479.9Relatively Moderate 3
Heat Wave3 of 378.485.586.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Hurricane3 of 339.041.446.8Very Low 3
Ice Storm3 of 398.399.399.3Very High 3
Inland Flooding3 of 357.677.778.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Landslide3 of 368.682.486.2Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Lightning3 of 372.982.284.6Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind3 of 396.498.299.3Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Tornado3 of 385.393.293.8Very High 1, Relatively High 2
Wildfire3 of 362.163.163.8Very Low 3
Winter Weather3 of 386.692.792.7Relatively High 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Livingston County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2028-04-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$2,272,958.350 total; 0 since its planIncludes $5,555.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4497-KY).
Carrsville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded4 total; 1 since its plan
Grand Rivers cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$393,030.7421 total; 3 since its plan
Salem cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$23,117.2020 total; 3 since its plan
Smithland cityCityApproved, expires 2028-04-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$77,111.9657 total; 5 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-04-14county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$20$17,003$378,953under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$15,459,886n/an/a$409,179n/a2.65% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$3,266,642,191n/a8,888$1,148,131n/a$569,8710.0351%
Hail$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$83,656$437$7410.00423%$50,000
Heat Wave$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$8$81$314,401under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$1,966,220,970$28,606,6468,825$4,274$2,754$600.000217%
Ice Storm$1,978,455,594n/a8,878$471,875n/a$6,7510.0239%$50,000
Inland Flooding$1,978,036,982$9,593,094613$2,254,800$698$31,341n/a (see note)$0$119,278.24NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$68,389,338n/a311$31n/a$285under 0.0001%$129,195.34
Lightning$1,978,455,594n/a8,878$1,718n/a$73,584under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$234,832$160,367$244,6390.0119%$120,000$3,000$129,195.34Storm Events damage since the plan includes 3 zone-level Strong Wind records ($3,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$270,932$1,584$727,9760.0137%$0$87,647.50
Wildfire$639,778,613$9,750,4473,242$1,229$7$4740.000192%
Winter Weather$1,978,455,594$31,109,4958,878$30,883$116$12,6640.00156%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2023-04-14 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 19 county-coded records, 19 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $170,000; 36 zone-level records, 36 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $53,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $129,195.34 on 7 counted declarations, 3 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population8,878
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,978,455,594
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$31,109,495
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,094,614
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$2,361,739
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0020202
of which: Livingston County (unincorporated area)0020202

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Livingston County (unincorporated area)2101460020202
Carrsville city2104600000000
Grand Rivers city2104610000000
Salem city2104620000000
Smithland city2101470000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0010101
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0010101
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Livingston County, KY: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 21139). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ky/21139/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.