Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Letcher County, KY

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
21133
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-04-09. Plan: Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672), approved 2025-04-10.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-04-10: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 10 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($14,840,786 a year), Cold Wave ($676,075) and Tornado ($291,892).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-04-09
Plan:
Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672)
Approved:
2025-04-10
Days to expiry:
1,287

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-04-10)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
10 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 18
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Letcher County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-04-09Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672)2025-04-102030-04-091,287
Fleming-Neon cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672)2025-04-102030-04-091,287
Jenkins cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672)2025-04-102030-04-091,287
Whitesburg cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09Kentucky River ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110672)2025-04-102030-04-091,287

Plan 110672 covers 16 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$12,801,188$610$2,038,987$14,840,78685
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,891$118$674,066$676,07515Includes 13 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3TornadoRelatively LowVery Low$99,402$2$192,488$291,8920Declared 10 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
4Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$58,808$1,422$174,963$235,193143Includes 8 High Wind and 7 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$162,514n/a$41,232$203,745Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$159,081$2$37,979$197,0621
7HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$136,614$112$11,057$147,78437
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$8under $1$128,500$128,5082
9Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$7,033under $1$61,066$68,100138
10LandslideRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$5,370n/a$38,121$43,4902
11LightningVery LowVery Low$4,927n/a$22,645$27,5711
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$20,725$17$412$21,1540Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13Ice StormVery LowVery Low$1,937n/a$2,508$4,4454
14AvalancheRelatively LowVery Low$1n/a$3,106$3,1070No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$04

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 9504.04 (Very Low, 63.1); tract 9504.01 (Very Low, 62.9); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 62.7)
Earthquaketract 9504.01 (Relatively Low, 64.2); tract 9504.04 (Relatively Low, 59.0); tract 9501 (Relatively Low, 50.9)
Hurricanetract 9504.01 (Very Low, 46.2); tract 9504.04 (Very Low, 44.8); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 44.6)
Landslidetract 9506.02 (Relatively Moderate, 98.7); tract 9506.01 (Relatively Moderate, 96.7); tract 9504.01 (Relatively Moderate, 96.4)
Tornadotract 9504.01 (Relatively Low, 48.3); tract 9504.04 (Relatively Low, 45.5); tract 9502.02 (Relatively Low, 44.6)
Wildfiretract 9502.02 (Relatively Moderate, 92.1); tract 9506.01 (Relatively Moderate, 91.4); tract 9506.02 (Relatively Moderate, 90.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9504.04 is Census Tract 9504.04). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill2 records, 2014 to 2015 (2 zone-level)1 day to 2 days (median 1.5 days); 2 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2015-02-19 to 2015-02-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage13 records, 2007 to 2020 (13 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 13 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)4 records, 2016 to 2019 (4 zone-level)36 days; 2 with a recorded value36 days (about 1.2 months), 2019-09-24 to 2019-10-29, a run of 2 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)41 records, 1984 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 41 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1995-05-18Hail, 1998-04-15, $20,000 property; $0 crops (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Whitesburg city (7 records), Jenkins city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 2010 (2 zone-level)1 day; 2 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2010-08-12, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 2004 to 2021 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)85 records, 1996 to 2025 (5 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2001-08-04, $548,000 property; $0 crops (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Whitesburg city (9 records), Jenkins city (3 records). Zone-level records (5) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)2 records, 2003 to 2018 (1 zone-level)Debris Flow, 2018-12-21, $0 property; $500 crops (2018 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2007Lightning, 2007-08-02, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)15 records, 2003 to 2024 (15 zone-level)26 kt (30 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 15 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2006-10-17; NWS zone KYZ118Strong Wind, 2020-04-12, $55,000 property; $8,000 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)143 records, 1968 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 108 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-05-09Thunderstorm Wind, 2009-05-08, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Whitesburg city (20 records), Jenkins city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)2 records, 1978 to 1983F/EF1; 2 with a recorded valueF1 tornado, 1983-06-03, 0.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2016 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)138 records, 1996 to 2026 (138 zone-level)Winter Weather, 2019-01-14, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars); NWS zone KYZ118Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 40 declarations covering 36 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3633-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-032025-04-02EM-3626-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2025-02-242025-02-14DR-4860-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind$6,267,954.26in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2025-02-162025-02-14EM-3624-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4860
2024-11-262024-09-27DR-4848-KYMajor disasterRemnants of Hurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslide, Strong Wind$917,200.85in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2023-05-092023-02-15DR-4711-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Strong Wind$1,772,168.07within last 5 years
2022-07-292022-07-26DR-4663-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$52,458,602.97within last 5 years
2021-04-232021-02-27DR-4595-KYMajor disasterSevere, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$336,966.57
2020-04-242020-02-03DR-4540-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslideno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4497-KYMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$5,550
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3469-KYEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4497
2019-04-172019-02-06DR-4428-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
2018-04-122018-02-09DR-4358-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$295,308.25
2016-11-202016-11-18FM-5166-KYFire managementSoutheastern Kentucky Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2015-08-122015-07-11DR-4239-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslideInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$212,667.11
2015-05-122015-03-03DR-4218-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Snowstorm, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weather$227,932.68
2015-04-302015-02-15DR-4216-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Snowstorms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslide$189,516.06
2009-05-292009-05-03DR-1841-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$49,502.19
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3231-KYEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-06-102004-05-26DR-1523-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Tornado$47,920.94
2003-07-022003-06-14DR-1475-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mud and Rock Slides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2003-03-142003-02-15DR-1454-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice and Snow Storms, Heavy Rain, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Mud andInland Flooding; Tornado; Winter Weather$102,991.06
2002-05-072002-04-27DR-1414-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$81,978.52
2002-04-042002-03-17DR-1407-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$89,217.38
2001-08-152001-07-27DR-1388-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$382,822.06
1998-04-291998-04-16DR-1216-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes,and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1997-03-041997-03-01DR-1163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-05DR-1089-KYMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1994-03-161994-02-09DR-1018-KYMajor disasterSevere Weather, Freezing Rain, Sleet, SnwWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-161993-03-13EM-3104-KYEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1989-10-301989-10-16DR-846-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Mudslides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslideno Public Assistance recorded
1989-06-301989-06-15DR-834-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1989-02-241989-01-13DR-821-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1984-05-151984-05-15DR-705-KYMajor disasterHigh Winds, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1982-09-291982-09-29DR-670-KYMajor disasterFlash FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1977-04-061977-04-06DR-529-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1975-05-241975-05-24DR-468-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1972-05-151972-05-15DR-332-KYMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1970-02-021970-02-02DR-282-KYMajor disasterHeavy Snowmelt, Rains & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1967-03-271967-03-27DR-226-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-03-131963-03-13DR-148-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-121962-03-12DR-128-KYMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-01-311957-01-31DR-66-KYMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave15000001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 13 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail41101001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding851263101996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide20001401996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1584326701955 to 2026-06-30Includes 8 High Wind and 7 Strong Wind records.
Tornado20001001950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1000101996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather1384312811996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-04-01High Wind50 kt (58 mph) measured gust$20,000 property; $1,000 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 1NWS zone KYZ118 (LETCHER), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-07-28Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)3, 0DAY to PARTRIDGEwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2019-01-14Winter Weather$50,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ118 (LETCHER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2018-12-21Debris Flow$0 property; $500 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0DONGOLAB1-c worst recorded: Debris Flow
2015-02-19Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone KYZ118 (LETCHER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2010-08-12Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ118 (LETCHER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2007-08-02Lightning$10,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0ISOMB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2006-10-17High Wind80 kt (92 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2006 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ118 (LETCHER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2003-05-09Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2003 dollars)0, 0PARTRIDGEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2001-08-04Flash Flood$548,000 property; $0 crops (2001 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1995-05-18Hail2.75 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1983-06-03TornadoF1, 0.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (453 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave0.949event-days per yearabout 0.949 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)182005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought8.56event-days per yearabout 8.56 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)3082000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00165annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.165%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.14events per yearabout 3.14 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)119.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.53event-days per yearabout 2.53 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)422005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0115events per yearabout 1 in 87 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.134event-days per yearabout 0.134 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)91946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.04event-days per yearabout 2.04 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)571996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide1.12events per year (modeled)about 1.12 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning51.5days per year with a strikeabout 51.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.44events per yearabout 4.44 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1691986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0631events per yearabout 1 in 16 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00717annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.717%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather18.1event-days per yearabout 18.1 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)3442005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202521300.7
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025107303.57
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202520300.667
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20250300
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche10 of 1060.261.663.1Very Low 10
Cold Wave10 of 1047.667.573.4Relatively Moderate 10
Drought0 of 10No Rating 10
Earthquake10 of 1028.746.964.2Relatively Low 8, Very Low 2
Hail10 of 1055.369.875.9Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 4
Heat Wave10 of 1011.227.535.1Relatively Low 8, Very Low 2
Hurricane10 of 1036.743.346.2Very Low 10
Ice Storm10 of 103.37.511.1Very Low 10
Inland Flooding10 of 1077.794.398.5Very High 5, Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide10 of 1095.196.098.7Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 1
Lightning10 of 1012.123.829.7Relatively Low 8, Very Low 2
Strong Wind10 of 1048.170.477.0Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 2
Tornado10 of 1031.142.848.3Relatively Low 10
Wildfire10 of 1085.188.992.1Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 3
Winter Weather10 of 1063.981.986.8Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 2

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Letcher County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 6$27,070,844.500 total; 0 since its plan
Fleming-Neon cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$7,277,505.660 total; 0 since its plan
Jenkins cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$1,653,466.945 total; 0 since its plan
Whitesburg cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 8$1,672,679.5036 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-04-10county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$2,400,344n/a1$1n/a$3,106under 0.0001%
Cold Wave$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$1,891$118$674,066under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$7,526,348,781n/a21,548$162,514n/a$41,2320.00216%
Hail$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$136,614$112$11,0570.00316%$0
Heat Wave$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$8under $1$128,500under 0.0001%
Hurricane$4,276,971,931$178,00021,223$20,725$17$4120.000485%
Ice Storm$4,323,174,375n/a21,377$1,937n/a$2,508under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$4,302,517,389$68,2743,605$12,801,188$610$2,038,987n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,589,143,786n/a8,357$5,370n/a$38,1210.000338%
Lightning$4,327,014,086n/a21,438$4,927n/a$22,6450.000114%
Strong Wind$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$58,808$1,422$174,9630.00136%$19,000
Tornado$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$99,402$2$192,4880.0023%
Wildfire$237,348,053$42,5213,309$159,081$2$37,9790.067%
Winter Weather$4,327,014,086$178,00021,438$7,033under $1$61,0660.000163%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2025-04-10 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 6 county-coded records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $19,000; 4 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population21,438
Building value (total, not at risk)$4,327,014,086
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$178,000
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$13,461,781
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,427,129
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition18Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total001801809
of which: Jenkins city0020202
of which: Neon city (community ID not in plan data)0010100
of which: Whitesburg city0080803
of which: Letcher County (unincorporated area)0060604
of which: Fleming-Neon city0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Letcher County (unincorporated area)2102890060604
Fleming-Neon city2102900010100
Jenkins city2101380020202
Whitesburg city2101400080803

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential001301307
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0050502
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 18 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Letcher County, KY: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 21133). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ky/21133/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]