Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Kenton County, KY

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
21117
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-04-16. Plan: Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793), approved 2026-04-17.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-04-17: no new hazard declaration and 2 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($21,048,605 a year), Tornado ($10,196,829) and Cold Wave ($6,810,134).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-04-16
Plan:
Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)
Approved:
2026-04-17
Days to expiry:
1,659

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-04-17)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
2 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 16
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 20 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Kenton County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Bromley cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Covington cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Crescent Springs cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Crestview Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Edgewood cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Elsmere cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Erlanger cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Fairview cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Fort Mitchell cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Fort Wright cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Independence cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Kenton Vale cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Lakeside Park cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Ludlow cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Park Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Ryland Heights cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Taylor Mill cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Villa Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11
Walton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16Northern Kentucky ADD Regional (FEMA plan 110793)2026-04-172031-04-161,659this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-11

Plan 110793 covers 41 other participants, named in the Excel file.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$20,832,232$11,980$204,392$21,048,60580
2TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$5,056,821$292$5,139,716$10,196,8294
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively High$3,190$26,078$6,780,865$6,810,1344Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
4Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$960,729$51$2,941,248$3,902,028136Includes 11 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$118$13$1,960,442$1,960,5738
6EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$796,594n/a$288,082$1,084,677Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$27,020n/a$1,049,788$1,076,8081
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$169,079n/a$173,462$342,5407
9HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$242,593$2,260$3,407$248,25948
10Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$64,916$41$50,865$115,82279
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$8,839$1$1,178$10,0180No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$3,673$170$42$3,8850Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$593n/a$1,015$1,6080Declared 3 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,129n/a$1,1290No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 636.07 (Relatively Low, 67.0); tract 613 (Relatively Low, 66.3); tract 647 (Relatively Low, 65.1)
Hurricanetract 653 (Very Low, 25.0); tract 672 (Very Low, 23.0); tract 637.02 (Very Low, 22.3)
Landslidetract 637.02 (Relatively Low, 91.5); tract 653 (Relatively Low, 87.8); tract 637.01 (Relatively Low, 81.5)
Tornadotract 653 (Very High, 95.7); tract 672 (Very High, 94.2); tract 636.04 (Relatively High, 92.2)
Wildfiretract 653 (Very Low, 65.8); tract 637.02 (Very Low, 59.8); tract 672 (Very Low, 59.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 636.07 is Census Tract 636.07). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill3 records, 1996 to 2022 (3 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 3 days); 3 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 1996-02-01 to 1996-02-05, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2007-04-06, $465,000 crop damage (2007 dollars); NWS zone KYZ092Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)53 records, 1960 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 0.88 in); 53 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1998-04-08Hail, 2016-10-19, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Independence city (14 records), Erlanger city (13 records), Covington city (6 records), Fort Mitchell city (3 records), Taylor Mill city (2 records), Crescent Springs city (1 record), Park Hills city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)8 records, 1999 to 2023 (8 zone-level)1 day to 12 days (median 3 days); 6 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 1999-07-20 to 1999-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)7 records, 1996 to 2018 (7 zone-level)No damage reported in 7 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)80 records, 1996 to 2026 (14 zone-level)Flash Flood, 1996-07-01, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Independence city (13 records), Covington city (12 records), Park Hills city (6 records), Fort Wright city (5 records), Fort Mitchell city (3 records), Crescent Springs city (2 records), Erlanger city (2 records), Lakeside Park city (2 records), Ludlow city (2 records), Bromley city (1 record); and 3 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file). Zone-level records (14) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 1996Lightning, 1996-05-15, $50,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars), 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Covington city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)12 records, 1996 to 2024 (12 zone-level)36 kt (41 mph) to 60 kt (69 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 12 with a recorded value60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2008-09-14; NWS zone KYZ092Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)143 records, 1960 to 202540 kt (46 mph) to 74 kt (85 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 125 with a recorded value74 kt (85 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2017-03-02Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Independence city (18 records), Erlanger city (13 records), Covington city (12 records), Taylor Mill city (7 records), Ludlow city (6 records), Bromley city (4 records), Fort Mitchell city (4 records), Fort Wright city (3 records), Park Hills city (3 records), Villa Hills city (3 records); and 3 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)10 records, 1965 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 10 with a recorded valueEF4 tornado, 2012-03-02, 8.52 mi within this county, 880 yd wide, $20,000,000 property; crops not reported (2012 dollars), 4 direct deaths, 8 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Erlanger city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)79 records, 1996 to 2026 (79 zone-level)Winter Storm, 1996-01-06, $400,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars); NWS zone KYZ092Countywide (zone-level records).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 15 declarations covering 10 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3633-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2025-04-242025-04-02DR-4864-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,310,287.12in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2025-04-032025-04-02EM-3626-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4864
2025-02-162025-02-14EM-3624-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4497-KYMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$564,894.10
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3469-KYEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4497
2018-04-262018-02-21DR-4361-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$429,705.09
2012-03-062012-02-29DR-4057-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$130,000.15
2011-05-042011-04-12DR-1976-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$340,170.93
2009-02-052009-01-26DR-1818-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingIce Storm$472,079.57
2009-01-282009-01-27EM-3302-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1818
2008-10-092008-09-12DR-1802-KYMajor disasterSevere Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression IkeHurricane; Strong Wind$543,792.44
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3231-KYEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
1997-03-041997-03-01DR-1163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-05DR-1089-KYMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-03-131963-03-13DR-148-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-121962-03-12DR-128-KYMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-01-311957-01-31DR-66-KYMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave4001001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail53014001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave8001001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm7000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding80137601996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000301996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 3 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1550824401955 to 2026-06-30Includes 11 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado10101501950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather790416201996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2017-03-02Thunderstorm Wind74 kt (85 mph) estimated gust$200,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0RICEDALE to INDEPENDENCEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2016-10-19Hail1 in$25,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)0, 0INDEPENDENCEB1-c most damaging: Hail
2012-03-02TornadoEF4, 8.52 mi within this county, 880 yd wide$20,000,000 property; crops not reported (2012 dollars)4, 8BRACHT to MORNING VIEWdeaths or injuries recorded
2008-09-14High Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$18,200,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ092 (KENTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2007-04-06Frost/Freeze$0 property; $465,000 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ092 (KENTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
1999-07-20Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone KYZ092 (KENTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-04-08Hail2.75 indamage not reported0, 0ERLANGERB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1996-07-01Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)0, 0INDEPENDENCEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1996-05-15Lightning$50,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)0, 1COVINGTONdeaths or injuries recorded
1996-02-01Cold/Wind Chill$20,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ092 (KENTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1996-01-06Winter Storm$400,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ092 (KENTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1981-11-19TornadoF1, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1981 dollars)0, 2location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (397 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.79event-days per yearabout 1.79 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)342005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought2.22event-days per yearabout 2.22 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)562000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00163annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.163%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.35events per yearabout 3.35 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)127.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave6.68event-days per yearabout 6.68 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)1002005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.00598events per yearabout 1 in 167 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.922event-days per yearabout 0.922 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)621946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.29event-days per yearabout 2.29 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 27 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (90%)641996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.359events per year (modeled)about 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning51.1days per year with a strikeabout 51.1 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.42events per yearabout 3.42 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1301986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.104events per yearabout 1 in 10 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000183annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00183%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather10.8event-days per yearabout 10.8 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 25 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (83.3%)2062005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202521300.7
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025114303.8
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20259300.3
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20251300.0333
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave44 of 4442.773.393.1Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 31, Relatively Low 1
Drought3 of 4474.775.477.1Very Low 3, No Rating 41
Earthquake44 of 4415.241.167.0Relatively Low 22, Very Low 22
Hail44 of 4426.941.063.7Relatively Low 28, Very Low 16
Heat Wave44 of 4414.748.882.1Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 32, Very Low 1
Hurricane44 of 4414.317.925.0Very Low 44
Ice Storm44 of 4428.657.484.9Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 35, Very Low 1
Inland Flooding44 of 442.527.592.0Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 20, Very Low 13
Landslide44 of 448.751.591.5Relatively Low 3, Very Low 41
Lightning44 of 4432.368.294.9Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 28, Relatively Low 6
Strong Wind44 of 4454.885.497.3Very High 1, Relatively High 27, Relatively Moderate 16
Tornado44 of 4447.071.595.7Very High 2, Relatively High 18, Relatively Moderate 21, Relatively Low 3
Wildfire43 of 4419.146.565.8Very Low 43, No Rating 1
Winter Weather44 of 4427.845.274.5Relatively Moderate 18, Relatively Low 26

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Kenton County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$315,446.200 total; 0 since its plan
Bromley cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$6,188.445 total; 0 since its plan
Covington cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 8$412,561.0331 total; 0 since its plan
Crescent Springs cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$47,303.875 total; 0 since its planIncludes $5,945.11 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4497-KY).
Crestview Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$5,719.552 total; 0 since its plan
Edgewood cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$806,713.770 total; 0 since its plan
Elsmere cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$52,218.710 total; 0 since its plan
Erlanger cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$76,677.2429 total; 1 since its plan
Fairview cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Fort Mitchell cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$64,951.7110 total; 0 since its planIncludes $13,049.70 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4497-KY).
Fort Wright cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$22,139.048 total; 0 since its plan
Independence cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$127,050.2645 total; 0 since its plan
Kenton Vale cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Lakeside Park cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded3 total; 0 since its plan
Ludlow cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$32,107.958 total; 0 since its plan
Park Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded10 total; 0 since its plan
Ryland Heights cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Taylor Mill cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$123,477.6210 total; 0 since its plan
Villa Hills cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$70,372.884 total; 0 since its plan
Walton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-04-17county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$26,208,142,267$6,944,284168,969$3,190$26,078$6,780,865under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$3,697,834n/an/a$1,129n/a0.0305% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$44,440,067,403n/a169,064$796,594n/a$288,0820.00179%
Hail$26,208,149,419$6,944,284168,969$242,593$2,260$3,4070.000926%
Heat Wave$26,208,142,267$6,944,284168,969$118$13$1,960,442under 0.0001%
Hurricane$26,208,142,267$6,944,284168,969$3,673$170$42under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$26,195,019,500n/a168,856$169,079n/a$173,4620.000645%
Inland Flooding$26,192,540,304$557,6411,831$20,832,232$11,980$204,392n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,536,533,446n/a17,247$593n/a$1,015under 0.0001%
Lightning$26,208,149,419n/a168,969$27,020n/a$1,049,7880.000103%
Strong Wind$26,208,149,419$6,944,284168,969$960,729$51$2,941,2480.00367%
Tornado$26,208,149,419$6,944,284168,969$5,056,821$292$5,139,7160.0193%$10,000
Wildfire$8,854,878,217$3,566,55162,499$8,839$1$1,178under 0.0001%
Winter Weather$26,208,142,267$6,944,284168,969$64,916$41$50,8650.000248%

Totals since 2026-04-17 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 2 county-coded records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $10,000; 0 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population168,969
Building value (total, not at risk)$26,208,149,419
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$6,944,284
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$28,208,413
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$18,594,504
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition16Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total011611606
of which: Kenton County (unincorporated area)0020200
of which: Covington city0080802
of which: Independence city0010101
of which: Taylor Mill city0020202
of which: Bromley city0010100
of which: Ludlow city0111101
of which: Erlanger city0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Kenton County (unincorporated area)2101280020200
Bromley city2102530010100
Covington city2101290080802
Crescent Springs city2104500000000
Crestview Hills city2104510000000
Edgewood city2104520000000
Elsmere city2104530000000
Erlanger city2103780010100
Fairview city2104070000000
Fort Mitchell city2104540000000
Fort Wright city2102490000000
Independence city2102400010101
Kenton Vale city2102620000000
Lakeside Park city2104550000000
Ludlow city2102660111101
Park Hills city2104090000000
Ryland Heights city2103890000000
Taylor Mill city2102460020202
Villa Hills city2104560000000
Walton city2103790000000
Walton city2104810000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential001101103
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential0010100
non-residential0131303
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 16 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Kenton County, KY: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 21117). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ky/21117/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]