Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Bullitt County, KY

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
21029
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-01-24. Plan: KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078), approved 2022-01-25.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-01-25: 7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents) and 75 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($23,303,719 a year), Tornado ($9,786,723) and Cold Wave ($5,500,037).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-01-24
Plan:
KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)
Approved:
2022-01-25
Days to expiry:
116
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-01-25)

New federal declarations:
7 new hazard declarations (5 incidents): DR-4702-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3624-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4860-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3626-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4864-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides), EM-3633-KY (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4937-KY (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides)
Storm Events records since approval:
75 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 2 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 20
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Bullitt County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-05-05
Fox Chase cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Hebron Estates cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Hillview cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Hunters Hollow cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Lebanon Junction cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Mount Washington cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31
Pioneer Village cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-05-05
Shepherdsville cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24KIPDA ADD Regional (FEMA plan 108078)2022-01-252027-01-24116this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-31

Plan 108078 covers 22 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$22,895,004$29,380$379,335$23,303,71957
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively High$3,117,385$495$6,668,843$9,786,7239
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively High$14,110$5,745$5,480,182$5,500,0376Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
4Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$1,107,948$880$2,434,556$3,543,384174Includes 7 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,033,670n/a$208,917$1,242,587Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$19,468n/a$731,139$750,6072
7Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$70$12$610,410$610,4920No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$161,351n/a$119,076$280,4275
9HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$165,739$600$108,497$274,83642
10Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$80,305under $1$120,575$200,88031
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$15,948$2$1,949$17,8990No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$4,334$409$29$4,7730Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$2,979n/a$2,9790No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$121n/a$356$4770Declared 8 times; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 207.03 (Relatively Low, 76.1); tract 208 (Relatively Low, 74.3); tract 206.01 (Relatively Low, 72.6)
Hurricanetract 211.03 (Very Low, 31.0); tract 211.02 (Very Low, 29.9); tract 207.03 (Very Low, 29.5)
Landslidetract 209 (Relatively Low, 84.4); tract 212 (Relatively Low, 83.5); tract 211.02 (Very Low, 76.5)
Tornadotract 208 (Very High, 97.0); tract 207.03 (Very High, 97.0); tract 206.01 (Very High, 96.4)
Wildfiretract 211.02 (Relatively Low, 77.0); tract 212 (Relatively Low, 74.2); tract 211.03 (Very Low, 67.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 207.03 is Census Tract 207.03). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2015 (1 zone-level)1 day; 1 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2015-02-17, 1 direct death, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage5 records, 2016 to 2025 (5 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 5 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)50 records, 1979 to 20250.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 50 with a recorded value3 in hail, 1980-07-02Hail, 2002-05-01, $75,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mount Washington city (17 records), Shepherdsville city (9 records), Lebanon Junction city (5 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 2003 to 2021 (5 zone-level)No damage reported in 5 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)57 records, 1996 to 2026 (4 zone-level)Flood, 1997-03-01, $15,000,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars); NWS zone KYZ029Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Shepherdsville city (10 records), Mount Washington city (5 records), Lebanon Junction city (4 records). Zone-level records (4) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2009 to 2010Lightning, 2009-06-14, $15,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mount Washington city (1 record), Shepherdsville city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)7 records, 1996 to 2024 (7 zone-level)41 kt (47 mph) to 61 kt (70 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 7 with a recorded value61 kt (70 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2008-09-14; NWS zone KYZ029High Wind, 2016-04-02, $5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)198 records, 1960 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 83 kt (96 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 171 with a recorded value83 kt (96 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-06-25Thunderstorm Wind, 2018-02-24, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Shepherdsville city (35 records), Mount Washington city (29 records), Lebanon Junction city (14 records), Hillview city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)13 records, 1969 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 12 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1996-05-28, 13.8 mi within this county, 575 yd wide, $100,000,000 property; $0 crops (1996 dollars), 10 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mount Washington city (3 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)31 records, 1996 to 2026 (31 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2018-03-20, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars); NWS zone KYZ029Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 28 declarations covering 21 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-09-012026-06-26DR-4937-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windnot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3633-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-242025-04-02DR-4864-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$714,990.06new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-032025-04-02EM-3626-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4864
2025-02-242025-02-14DR-4860-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind$277,766.75new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-02-162025-02-14EM-3624-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4860
2023-04-102023-03-03DR-4702-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Tornado$258,971.26new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-12-122021-12-10DR-4630-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and TornadoesTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Windno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2021-12-112021-12-10EM-3575-KYEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and TornadoesTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Windno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4630
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4497-KYMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3469-KYEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4497
2018-04-262018-02-21DR-4361-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$347,854.65
2015-05-122015-03-03DR-4218-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Snowstorm, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weather$146,819.07
2015-05-012015-04-02DR-4217-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$92,156.43
2009-02-052009-01-26DR-1818-KYMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingIce Storm$648,072.02
2009-01-282009-01-27EM-3302-KYEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1818
2008-10-092008-09-12DR-1802-KYMajor disasterSevere Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression IkeHurricane; Strong Wind$215,764.38
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3231-KYEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-06-102004-05-26DR-1523-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2003-06-032003-05-04DR-1471-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mud and Rock Slides, and TornadoesInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1997-03-041997-03-01DR-1163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-06-011996-05-28DR-1117-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-05DR-1089-KYMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1989-02-241989-01-13DR-821-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1978-12-121978-12-12DR-568-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-041974-04-04DR-420-KYMajor disasterTornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1972-05-151972-05-15DR-332-KYMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1970-06-051970-06-05DR-288-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-163-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-03-131963-03-13DR-148-KYMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-121962-03-12DR-128-KYMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1957-01-311957-01-31DR-66-KYMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6101001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail50505001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm5010101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding57162161641996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000841996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 8 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind20545146641955 to 2026-06-30Includes 7 High Wind records.
Tornado133031021950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather31515311996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-04-05Flash Flood$20,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)1, 0LEBANON JCTnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2023-06-25Thunderstorm Wind83 kt (96 mph) estimated gustproperty not reported; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 0GAP IN KNOBnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2018-03-20Winter Storm$50,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ029 (BULLITT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2018-02-24Thunderstorm Wind55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust$100,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0STIBBINSB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
2016-04-02High Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust$5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ029 (BULLITT), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2015-02-17Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)1, 1NWS zone KYZ029 (BULLITT), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2009-06-14Lightning$15,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0SHEPHERDSVILLEB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2008-09-14High Wind61 kt (70 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone KYZ029 (BULLITT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1997-03-01Flood$15,000,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone KYZ029 (BULLITT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1996-05-28TornadoF4, 13.8 mi within this county, 575 yd wide$100,000,000 property; $0 crops (1996 dollars)0, 10Brooks to Mount WashingtonB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1985-06-10Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)1, 0location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1980-07-02Hail3 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (369 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.16event-days per yearabout 1.16 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)222005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought1.5event-days per yearabout 1.5 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)562000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00226annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.226%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.39events per yearabout 3.39 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)128.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave5.42event-days per yearabout 5.42 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)822005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.0143events per yearabout 1 in 70 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.97event-days per yearabout 0.97 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)661946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.14event-days per yearabout 1.14 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)321996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.331events per year (modeled)about 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning53.1days per year with a strikeabout 53.1 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind6.79events per yearabout 6.79 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2591986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.208events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000341annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00341%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather8.89event-days per yearabout 8.89 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)1692005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202522300.733
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025155305.17
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20257300.233
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20257300.233
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20251300.0333
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave22 of 2216.085.891.3Relatively High 16, Relatively Moderate 5, Very Low 1
Drought18 of 2267.572.679.1Relatively Low 1, Very Low 17, No Rating 4
Earthquake22 of 220.360.276.1Relatively Low 20, Very Low 2
Hail22 of 221.157.568.1Relatively Low 21, Very Low 1
Heat Wave22 of 221.637.249.2Relatively Low 18, Very Low 4
Hurricane22 of 2212.821.231.0Very Low 22
Ice Storm22 of 220.171.783.9Relatively Moderate 13, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 1
Inland Flooding22 of 220.351.998.6Very High 1, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4
Landslide22 of 228.935.084.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 20
Lightning22 of 220.282.190.3Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 8, Very Low 1
Strong Wind22 of 221.295.198.2Very High 7, Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 2, Very Low 1
Tornado22 of 221.591.697.0Very High 9, Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 3, Very Low 1
Wildfire22 of 2219.561.677.0Relatively Low 2, Very Low 20
Winter Weather22 of 2210.878.787.0Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 9, Very Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Bullitt County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 7$1,694,296.520 total; 0 since its plan
Fox Chase cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Hebron Estates cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$6,045.730 total; 0 since its plan
Hillview cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$136,847.081 total; 0 since its plan
Hunters Hollow cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Lebanon Junction cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 6$123,909.3823 total; 8 since its plan
Mount Washington cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$104,532.8555 total; 14 since its plan
Pioneer Village cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Shepherdsville cityCityApproved, expires 2027-01-24FMA RL 0, SRL 2; any 7$430,150.2255 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-01-25county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$14,110$5,745$5,480,182under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$5,374,119n/an/a$2,979n/a0.0554% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$29,755,237,784n/a82,217$1,033,670n/a$208,9170.00347%
Hail$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$165,739$600$108,4970.000953%
Heat Wave$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$70$12$610,410under 0.0001%
Hurricane$17,325,405,636$7,493,85081,953$4,334$409$29under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$17,399,257,876n/a82,200$161,351n/a$119,0760.000927%
Inland Flooding$17,387,814,493$2,790,4918,477$22,895,004$29,380$379,335n/a (see note)$20,000$1,251,728.07NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$562,968,668n/a2,522$121n/a$356under 0.0001%$1,251,728.07
Lightning$17,399,257,876n/a82,200$19,468n/a$731,1390.000112%
Strong Wind$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$1,107,948$880$2,434,5560.00637%$0$1,251,728.07
Tornado$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$3,117,385$495$6,668,8430.0179%$0$973,961.32
Wildfire$9,731,798,145$4,684,59248,172$15,948$2$1,9490.000164%
Winter Weather$17,399,257,876$8,035,23682,200$80,305under $1$120,5750.000462%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2022-01-25 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 67 county-coded records, 38 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $20,000; 8 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $1,251,728.07 on 7 counted declarations, 3 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population82,200
Building value (total, not at risk)$17,399,257,876
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$8,035,236
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$28,655,956
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$16,863,864
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition19Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total121922007
of which: Shepherdsville city0272701
of which: Bullitt County (unincorporated area)0070704
of which: Lebanon Junction city1050602

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Bullitt County (unincorporated area)2102730070704
Fox Chase city2103850000000
Hebron Estates city2103860000000
Hillview city2103840000000
Hunters Hollow city2103870000000
Lebanon Junction city2103041050602
Mount Washington city2103820000000
Pioneer Village city2103830000000
Shepherdsville city2100280272701

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential121621707
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0030300
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 19 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Bullitt County, KY: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 21029). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ky/21029/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]