Hazard Plain Automated baseline

McDonough County, IL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
17109
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-09-20. Plan: McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283), approved 2022-09-21.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-09-21: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4728-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 92 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,177,293 a year), Cold Wave ($2,083,607) and Heat Wave ($1,427,687).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-09-20
Plan:
McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)
Approved:
2022-09-21
Days to expiry:
355
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-09-21)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4728-IL (Severe Storms and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
92 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
McDonough CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
Bardolph villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355this jurisdiction approved 2022-12-21
Bushnell cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
Colchester cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355this jurisdiction approved 2022-12-21
Good Hope villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
Industry villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355this jurisdiction approved 2022-12-21
Macomb cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
Prairie City villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
V.I.T. Community Unit School District 2School/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-11-16Fulton County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110952)2025-11-172030-11-161,508
McDonough District HospitalHospital/Medical FacilityApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355
Western Illinois UniversityHospital/Medical FacilityApproved, expires 2027-09-20McDonough County 2022 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108283)2022-09-212027-09-20355this jurisdiction approved 2022-12-21

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,174,139$743$2,412$2,177,29378
2Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$113$481,697$1,601,797$2,083,60717Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$315$7$1,427,364$1,427,6875
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$364,863$5,298$764,882$1,135,04427
5DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$975,089n/a$975,08915
6Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$243,947$391,721$257,017$892,685215Includes 6 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$460,563$69,068$53,880$583,511159
8EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$204,287n/a$175,894$380,181Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$5,369n/a$174,920$180,2894
10Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$50,400n/a$98,031$148,43111
11Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,525$1,018$58,410$61,953110
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$898$4,382$1$5,2810No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$86n/a$2,473$2,5580No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14WildfireVery LowVery Low$234$2$53$2900No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9800 (Relatively Moderate, 78.9); tract 109 (Relatively Low, 60.7); tract 107 (Relatively Low, 58.7)
Hurricanetract 110 (Very Low, 40.9); tract 102 (Very Low, 34.8); tract 111 (Very Low, 32.7)
Landslidetract 111 (Relatively Low, 93.2); tract 103 (Relatively Low, 91.3); tract 110 (Relatively Low, 88.1)
Tornadotract 107 (Relatively High, 77.5); tract 104.02 (Relatively Moderate, 69.4); tract 109 (Relatively Moderate, 66.2)
Wildfiretract 107 (Very Low, 34.2); tract 104.02 (Very Low, 32.1); tract 110 (Very Low, 30.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9800 is Census Tract 9800). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill12 records, 1996 to 2019 (12 zone-level)3 days to 31 days (median 3 days); 8 with a recorded value2000-12-01 to 2000-12-31 (4 records, 1 of them a monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage5 records, 2005 to 2012 (5 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2005-05-03, $8,250,000 crop damage (2005 dollars); NWS zone ILZ035Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)15 records, 2005 to 2012 (15 zone-level)12 days to 290 days (median 22 days); 5 with a recorded value290 days (about 9.5 months), 2005-06-15 to 2006-03-31, a run of 10 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2005-07-01, property not reported; $12,950,000 crops, reported for the zone (2005 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)197 records, 1973 to 20260.75 in to 4 in (median 1 in); 197 with a recorded value4 in hail, 1995-05-13; same size also recorded on 1995-05-13Hail, 2003-07-18, $20,000 property; $2,000 crops (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macomb city (51 records), Colchester city (15 records), Bushnell city (14 records), Industry village (13 records), Prairie City village (9 records), Good Hope village (6 records), Bardolph village (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)5 records, 1997 to 2013 (5 zone-level)1 day to 13 days (median 4 days); 5 with a recorded value13 consecutive days, 1999-07-19 to 1999-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)11 records, 2000 to 2024 (11 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2005-01-05, $10,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone ILZ035Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)78 records, 1997 to 2026 (11 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2013-04-17, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macomb city (18 records), Industry village (5 records), Colchester city (4 records), Bushnell city (3 records), Good Hope village (3 records), Bardolph village (1 record), Prairie City village (1 record). Zone-level records (11) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)4 records, 2001 to 2020Lightning, 2004-07-05, $2,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macomb city (3 records), Bushnell city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)7 records, 1996 to 2008 (7 zone-level)44 kt (51 mph) to 56 kt (64 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 6 with a recorded value56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2008-05-11; NWS zone ILZ035High Wind, 1997-04-06, $100,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1997 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)256 records, 1969 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 95 kt (109 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 215 with a recorded value95 kt (109 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-06-29Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-06-25, $20,000 property; $1,930,000 crops (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macomb city (68 records), Bushnell city (17 records), Colchester city (14 records), Industry village (14 records), Good Hope village (11 records), Bardolph village (4 records), Prairie City village (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)44 records, 1957 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 38 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1957-05-21, 13.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 120 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1957 dollars)Tornado, 2003-05-10, $400,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Industry village (6 records), Good Hope village (4 records), Bardolph village (2 records), Bushnell city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)110 records, 1996 to 2026 (110 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 2004-11-24, $5,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars); NWS zone ILZ035Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 11 declarations covering 8 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2023-08-152023-06-29DR-4728-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$866,090.37new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-03-262020-01-20DR-4489-ILMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$180,461.41
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3435-ILEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4489
2013-05-102013-04-16DR-4116-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$557,793.96
2011-03-172011-01-31DR-1960-ILMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$118,568.63
2006-12-292006-11-30EM-3269-ILEmergencySnowWinter Weather$41,064.12
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3230-ILEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-05-152003-05-06DR-1469-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2002-05-212002-04-21DR-1416-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland FloodingPA not declared for this county
2001-01-172000-12-11EM-3161-ILEmergencyIllinois Winter Snow StormsWinter Weather$30,651.65
1999-01-081999-01-01EM-3134-ILEmergencyIl-Winter Storm 1/1/99Winter Weather$27,254.18

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1961-05-271961-05-27DR-115-ILMajor disasterFloods & TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-78-ILMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Illinois county: 1 row, $797,909.42; listed on the Illinois state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave17000001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought15000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail19732840001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm11101001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding78718411996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind26339544101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 6 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado448311201950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather110549401996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2013-04-17Flash Flood$250,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0BLANDINSVILLE to COLMARB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2008-05-11High Wind56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust$20,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2005-06-15Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2005-05-03Frost/Freezeproperty not reported; $8,250,000 crops, reported for the zone (2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2000-12-01Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1999-08-12Thunderstorm Wind52 kt (60 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 1MACOMBdeaths or injuries recorded
1999-07-19Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-06-29Thunderstorm Wind95 kt (109 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0BLANDINSVILLEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1997-01-10Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 1NWS zone ILZ035 (MCDONOUGH), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1995-05-13Hail4 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0MacombB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1982-03-12TornadoF2, 33 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1957-05-21TornadoF3, 13.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 120 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1957 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (744 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave4.37event-days per yearabout 4.37 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 7 of 30 years)event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)832005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought4.23event-days per yearabout 4.23 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)1192000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00166annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.166%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.78events per yearabout 3.78 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)143.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave9event-days per yearabout 9 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)1372005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.09event-days per yearabout 1.09 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 8 of 30 years)event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)741946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.07event-days per yearabout 2.07 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 24 of 30 years)event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)581996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.171events per year (modeled)about 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning46.3days per year with a strikeabout 46.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind5.29events per yearabout 5.29 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2021986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.499events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000232annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00232%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather11.2event-days per yearabout 11.2 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 28 of 30 years)event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)2132005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202585302.83
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025162305.4
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202535301.17
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202518300.6
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20255300.167

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave11 of 1157.183.293.4Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought10 of 1172.390.998.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2, No Rating 1
Earthquake11 of 1121.844.278.9Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4
Hail11 of 1168.085.890.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 1
Heat Wave11 of 1164.686.694.5Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 4
Hurricane11 of 1115.224.240.9Very Low 11
Ice Storm11 of 1152.078.989.7Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding11 of 112.68.840.8Relatively Low 3, Very Low 8
Landslide11 of 1148.859.593.2Relatively Low 3, Very Low 8
Lightning11 of 1137.664.785.2Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 2
Strong Wind11 of 1154.685.498.3Very High 1, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 2
Tornado11 of 1144.161.577.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 2
Wildfire11 of 1119.828.634.2Very Low 11
Winter Weather11 of 1149.671.185.5Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 9

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
McDonough CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$211,832.600 total; 0 since its planIncludes $180,461.41 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4489-IL).
Bardolph villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; 2 since its plan
Bushnell cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$217,082.1136 total; 5 since its plan
Colchester cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded33 total; 3 since its plan
Good Hope villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded24 total; 6 since its plan
Industry villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,172.6838 total; 11 since its plan
Macomb cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$685,849.26140 total; 25 since its plan
Prairie City villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-09-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,200.1213 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-09-21county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$113$481,697$1,601,797under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$217,915,762n/an/a$975,089n/a0.447% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$5,915,138,715n/a27,238$204,287n/a$175,8940.00345%
Hail$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$460,563$69,068$53,8800.0137%$0
Heat Wave$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$315$7$1,427,364under 0.0001%
Hurricane$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$898$4,382$1under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$3,351,708,499n/a27,238$50,400n/a$98,0310.0015%$0
Inland Flooding$3,349,943,236$3,109,34437$2,174,139$743$2,412n/a (see note)$0$866,090.37NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$31,848,434n/a283$86n/a$2,4730.000269%
Lightning$3,351,708,499n/a27,238$5,369n/a$174,9200.00016%
Strong Wind$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$243,947$391,721$257,0170.00728%$10,000
Tornado$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$364,863$5,298$764,8820.0109%$22,000
Wildfire$245,802,035$12,522,4202,060$234$2$53under 0.0001%
Winter Weather$3,351,708,499$275,613,84827,238$2,525$1,018$58,410under 0.0001%$0

Totals since 2022-09-21 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 86 county-coded records, 58 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $32,000; 6 zone-level records, 5 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $866,090.37 on 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population27,238
Building value (total, not at risk)$3,351,708,499
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$275,613,848
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,436,766
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$4,617,133
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0010100
of which: McDonough County (unincorporated area)0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0050500

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
McDonough County1709990010100
Bardolph village1704700000000
Bushnell city1704710000000
Colchester city1712530000000
Good Hope village1704720000000
Industry village1712540000000
Macomb city1704730000000
Prairie City village1712550000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0010100
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). McDonough County, IL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 17109). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/il/17109/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.