Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Crawford County, IL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
17033
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-08-19. Plan: Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565), approved 2025-08-20.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-08-20: no new hazard declaration and 23 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($6,677,525 a year), Earthquake ($3,362,551) and Tornado ($1,257,807).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-08-19
Plan:
Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)
Approved:
2025-08-20
Days to expiry:
1,419

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-08-20)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
23 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 6
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Crawford CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419this jurisdiction approved 2025-12-03
Flat Rock villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-04
Hutsonville villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419
Oblong villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419
Palestine villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419
Robinson cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419this jurisdiction approved 2025-09-17
Stoy villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19Crawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565)2025-08-202030-08-191,419this jurisdiction approved 2025-09-17
Lincoln Trail CollegeCollege/UniversityPlan 110565 approved 2025-08-20, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleCrawford County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110565), pending adoption here2025-08-20 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-08-19 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$6,335,263$216,340$125,922$6,677,52556
2EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$2,148,994n/a$1,213,557$3,362,551Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$707,555$1,306$548,946$1,257,80714
4DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$709,544n/a$709,5448
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$253$52,822$554,175$607,2506Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$11$3$586,578$586,59214
7Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$359,741$20,042$108,483$488,266115Includes 8 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$263,618$7,271$12,963$283,85262
9LightningVery LowRelatively Low$6,589n/a$87,987$94,5761
10Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$14,980$310$50,228$65,51829Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
11Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$32,237n/a$14,965$47,2022
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$5,929$5,089$7$11,0250No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$84n/a$1,464$1,5480No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14WildfireVery LowVery Low$855$1$61$9170No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 8802 (Relatively High, 89.4); tract 8806 (Relatively Moderate, 87.2); tract 8803 (Relatively Moderate, 86.3)
Hurricanetract 8801 (Very Low, 49.0); tract 8806 (Very Low, 38.5); tract 8805 (Very Low, 36.8)
Landslidetract 8806 (Relatively Low, 92.5); tract 8801 (Relatively Low, 88.6); tract 8802 (Relatively Low, 82.8)
Tornadotract 8802 (Relatively High, 79.6); tract 8806 (Relatively High, 78.8); tract 8805 (Relatively High, 78.6)
Wildfiretract 8801 (Very Low, 53.5); tract 8802 (Very Low, 52.5); tract 8806 (Very Low, 45.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 8802 is Census Tract 8802). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill5 records, 1996 to 2026 (5 zone-level)1 day to 3 days (median 2 days); 5 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 1996-02-02 to 1996-02-04, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)8 records, 2007 to 2026 (8 zone-level)34 days to 87 days (median 55 days); 3 with a recorded value87 days (about 2.9 months), 2012-06-19 to 2012-09-13, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2012-09-01, $0 property; $30,400,000 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)70 records, 1977 to 20260.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 70 with a recorded value3 in hail, 2025-05-16Hail, 1995-07-15, $1,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Robinson city (19 records), Oblong village (13 records), Palestine village (8 records), Hutsonville village (4 records), Flat Rock village (3 records), Stoy village (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)14 records, 1997 to 2023 (14 zone-level)2 days to 9 days (median 4 days); 12 with a recorded value9 consecutive days, 2012-06-29 to 2012-07-07, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)2 records, 2004 to 2011 (2 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2011-02-01, $600,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone ILZ068Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)56 records, 1996 to 2026 (4 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2000-08-07, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars), 3 direct deathsEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Robinson city (7 records), Oblong village (4 records), Hutsonville village (2 records), Stoy village (2 records). Zone-level records (4) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2011Lightning, 2011-06-12, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Robinson city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)9 records, 1996 to 2026 (9 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 53 kt (61 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 6 with a recorded value53 kt (61 mph) measured, High Wind, 2002-03-09; NWS zone ILZ068Strong Wind, 2010-03-25, $25,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)138 records, 1961 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 95 with a recorded value78 kt (90 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1982-04-02Thunderstorm Wind, 2006-04-16, $775,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Robinson city (44 records), Oblong village (25 records), Palestine village (10 records), Hutsonville village (5 records), Flat Rock village (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)27 records, 1959 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 24 with a recorded valueEF3 tornado, 2023-03-31, 21.15 mi within this county, 700 yd wide, $0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars), 3 direct deaths, 8 direct injuriesTornado, 2011-05-25, $920,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Robinson city (2 records), Oblong village (1 record), Palestine village (1 record), Stoy village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)29 records, 1996 to 2026 (29 zone-level)No damage reported in 29 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 9 declarations covering 6 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2020-03-262020-01-20DR-4489-ILMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$149,313.25
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3435-ILEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4489
2013-05-102013-04-16DR-4116-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$72,557.72
2011-03-172011-01-31DR-1960-ILMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$22,788.75
2008-06-242008-06-01DR-1771-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$374,787.48
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3230-ILEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-05-212002-04-21DR-1416-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$26,261.48FEMA's declaration record does not list Public Assistance, but FEMA's PA project summaries show obligations for this county
1996-05-061996-04-28DR-1112-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1985-03-291985-02-23DR-735-ILMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1961-05-271961-05-27DR-115-ILMajor disasterFloods & TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-78-ILMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 2 rows, $36,009.61

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-1991-IL2011-06-07Severe Storms and FloodingRUSSELL TOWNSHIP ROAD DISTRICT$31,989.43
EM-3199-IL2005-02-01Record/Near Record SnowRUSSELL TOWNSHIP ROAD DISTRICT$4,020.18

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Illinois county: 1 row, $797,909.42; listed on the Illinois state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6102001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought8202001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail707513001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave14002001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding56115501996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1474310101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 8 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado27719101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather29114101996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-05-16Hail3 in$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0ROBINSONin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2023-03-31TornadoEF3, 21.15 mi within this county, 700 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)3, 8PIERCEBURG to PALESTINEwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2012-06-29Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2012-06-19Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-06-12Lightning$100,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0ROBINSONB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2011-05-25TornadoEF2, 5.5 mi within this county, 200 yd wide$920,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0NEW HEBRON to ROBINSON MUNI ARPTB1-c most damaging: Tornado
2011-02-01Ice Storm$600,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2002-03-09High Wind53 kt (61 mph) measureddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2000-12-13Winter Stormdamage not reported1, 1NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2000-08-07Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)3, 0ROBINSONdeaths or injuries recorded
1996-02-02Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ILZ068 (CRAWFORD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1982-04-02Thunderstorm Wind78 kt (90 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (360 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.47event-days per yearabout 1.47 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)282005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought3.43event-days per yearabout 3.43 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)1122000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00512annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.512%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.86events per yearabout 2.86 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)108.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave7.89event-days per yearabout 7.89 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)1042005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0123events per yearabout 1 in 81 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.531event-days per yearabout 0.531 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)361946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.68event-days per yearabout 1.68 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)471996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.187events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning49.8days per year with a strikeabout 49.8 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.18events per yearabout 4.18 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1591986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.302events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000163annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00163%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather6.74event-days per yearabout 6.74 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)1282005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202520300.667
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202583302.77
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202516300.533
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave6 of 657.267.971.7Relatively Moderate 6
Drought6 of 677.496.097.7Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Earthquake6 of 683.786.389.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 5
Hail6 of 674.782.684.7Relatively Moderate 6
Heat Wave6 of 669.978.082.6Relatively Moderate 6
Hurricane6 of 628.536.249.0Very Low 6
Ice Storm6 of 649.465.269.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 5
Inland Flooding6 of 640.883.488.8Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Landslide6 of 617.481.892.5Relatively Low 3, Very Low 3
Lightning6 of 649.159.165.8Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind6 of 678.788.790.5Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado6 of 665.576.279.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 3
Wildfire6 of 629.243.653.5Very Low 6
Winter Weather6 of 675.983.286.6Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Crawford CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$149,313.250 total; 0 since its planIncludes $149,313.25 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4489-IL).
Flat Rock villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded5 total; 2 since its plan
Hutsonville villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 3$46,785.2611 total; 0 since its plan
Oblong villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded43 total; 1 since its plan
Palestine villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$812.5919 total; 1 since its plan
Robinson cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$22,788.7573 total; 1 since its plan
Stoy villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded4 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-08-20county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$253$52,822$554,175under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$70,347,961n/an/a$709,544n/a1.01% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$11,592,256,920n/a18,679$2,148,994n/a$1,213,5570.0185%
Hail$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$263,618$7,271$12,9630.00406%$0
Heat Wave$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$11$3$586,578under 0.0001%
Hurricane$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$5,929$5,089$7under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$6,485,850,432n/a18,678$32,237n/a$14,9650.000497%
Inland Flooding$6,482,852,080$16,341,092427$6,335,263$216,340$125,922n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$28,580,332n/a72$84n/a$1,4640.000294%
Lightning$6,485,850,432n/a18,678$6,589n/a$87,9870.000102%
Strong Wind$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$359,741$20,042$108,4830.00555%$0$0
Tornado$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$707,555$1,306$548,9460.0109%$500,000
Wildfire$842,314,551$11,810,4022,505$855$1$610.000101%
Winter Weather$6,485,850,432$139,642,86518,678$14,980$310$50,2280.000231%$0

Totals since 2025-08-20 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 18 county-coded records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $500,000; 5 zone-level records, 5 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population18,678
Building value (total, not at risk)$6,485,850,432
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$139,642,865
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$10,888,836
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,305,338
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0161600
of which: Hutsonville village0131300
of which: Crawford County (unincorporated area)0030300
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0050500

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Crawford County1709390030300
Flat Rock village1710900000000
Hutsonville village1701780131300
Oblong village1710910000000
Palestine village1701790000000
Robinson city1701800000000
Stoy village1710920000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0040400
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0121200
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 6 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Crawford County, IL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 17033). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/il/17033/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]