Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Mitchell County, IA

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
19131
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-03-28. Plan: Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874), approved 2023-03-29.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-03-29: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4784-IA (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4796-IA (Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 39 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($5,176,809 a year), Strong Wind ($4,555,842) and Drought ($2,058,499).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 2, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-03-28
Plan:
Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)
Approved:
2023-03-29
Days to expiry:
545

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-03-29)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4784-IA (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4796-IA (Severe Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes)
Storm Events records since approval:
39 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 2, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Mitchell CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545
Carpenter cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-12
McIntire cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-06-27
Mitchell cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-09-27
Orchard cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-10-03
Osage cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-07-14
Riceville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-07-12
St. Ansgar cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-12
Stacyville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-07-14
Osage Community School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-12
Rudd-Rockford-Marble Rock Community School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-06-15Floyd County (FEMA plan 108300)2022-06-152027-06-15258this jurisdiction approved 2023-06-16
St. Ansgar Community School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2028-03-28Mitchell County Multi-Jurisdictional HM Plan (FEMA plan 108874)2023-03-292028-03-28545this jurisdiction approved 2023-08-22

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$4,785,964$387,921$2,924$5,176,80943
2Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$283,100$4,236,484$36,258$4,555,84291Includes 17 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
3DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Highn/a$2,058,499n/a$2,058,49923
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$787,049$12,852$591,091$1,390,99110
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,002$370,685$194,494$566,18130Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
6HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$141,265$259,237$19,019$419,52178
7Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$12,777$725$56,512$70,01499
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$3,665$5$47,628$51,29712
9LightningVery LowVery Low$5,503n/a$38,965$44,4693
10Ice StormVery LowVery Low$10,593n/a$11,211$21,8044
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$4,522n/a$1,138$5,661Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12WildfireVery LowVery Low$4,186$121$463$4,7690No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$8n/a$339$3470No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14HurricaneNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 5602 (Very Low, 10.5); tract 5603 (Very Low, 10.1); tract 5601 (Very Low, 7.5)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 5602 (Relatively Low, 84.9); tract 5601 (Relatively Low, 83.5); tract 5603 (Very Low, 42.8)
Tornadotract 5602 (Very High, 95.4); tract 5601 (Very High, 93.7); tract 5603 (Relatively High, 91.5)
Wildfiretract 5602 (Relatively Low, 74.4); tract 5601 (Relatively Low, 72.2); tract 5603 (Very Low, 58.9)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 5602 is Census Tract 5602). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill29 records, 1996 to 2026 (29 zone-level)1 day to 6 days (median 2 days); 26 with a recorded value6 consecutive days, 2010-01-01 to 2010-01-06, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed). Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2012 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)23 records, 2012 to 2024 (23 zone-level)78 days to 281 days (median 274 days); 3 with a recorded value281 days (about 9.2 months), 2023-08-15 to 2024-05-21, a run of 10 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)110 records, 1965 to 20250.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 110 with a recorded value3 in hail, 1990-06-27Hail, 2011-04-09, $600,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: St. Ansgar city (24 records), Osage city (17 records), Stacyville city (10 records), Carpenter city (5 records), Mitchell city (4 records), Orchard city (4 records), Riceville city (4 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)12 records, 1999 to 2026 (12 zone-level)1 day to 9 days (median 3 days); 11 with a recorded value9 consecutive days, 2001-07-31 to 2001-08-08, zone-levelExcessive Heat, 2011-07-17, $69,700 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1998 to 2005 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)43 records, 1999 to 2024 (6 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2013-05-19, $4,500,000 property; $20,000,000 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Osage city (7 records), Orchard city (5 records), Stacyville city (4 records), Riceville city (2 records), Carpenter city (1 record), St. Ansgar city (1 record). Zone-level records (6) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 2010 to 2017Lightning, 2017-05-17, $60,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mitchell city (1 record), Orchard city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)18 records, 1996 to 2026 (18 zone-level)39 kt (45 mph) to 77 kt (89 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 18 with a recorded value77 kt (89 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2010-10-26; NWS zone IAZ008High Wind, 1998-11-10, $200,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1998 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)105 records, 1966 to 202535 kt (40 mph) to 74 kt (85 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 90 with a recorded value74 kt (85 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1991-04-12Thunderstorm Wind, 2011-09-02, $0 property; $41,400,000 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Osage city (27 records), St. Ansgar city (14 records), Stacyville city (9 records), Mitchell city (6 records), Carpenter city (3 records), Riceville city (3 records), Orchard city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)18 records, 1954 to 2022F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 18 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1981-05-23, 3.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1981 dollars)Tornado, 2022-04-12, $525,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Stacyville city (3 records), Osage city (2 records), Orchard city (1 record), Riceville city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)99 records, 1996 to 2026 (99 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2007-02-23, $125,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone IAZ008Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 20 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-06-242024-06-16DR-4796-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$209,922.55new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-05-242024-05-20DR-4784-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-02-232021-12-15DR-4642-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; Tornado$44,387.09within last 5 years
2020-03-232020-01-20DR-4483-IAMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countednone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $326,644.22 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3480-IAEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4483
2019-03-232019-03-12DR-4421-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$129,984.91
2017-08-272017-07-19DR-4334-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2016-10-312016-09-21DR-4289-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$77,233.85
2016-09-292016-08-23DR-4281-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$201,515.03
2015-07-312015-06-20DR-4234-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$328,483.41
2013-07-022013-05-19DR-4126-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$1,569,414.66
2008-05-272008-05-25DR-1763-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$941,159.34
2007-03-142007-02-23DR-1688-IAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weather$199,545.24
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3239-IAEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-05-252004-05-19DR-1518-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$192,804.33
1999-07-221999-07-02DR-1282-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$282,932.22
1993-07-091993-04-13DR-996-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-04-261993-03-26DR-986-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1991-12-261991-10-31DR-928-IAMajor disasterIce StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
1974-06-241974-06-24DR-443-IAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1962-09-051962-09-05DR-133-IAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1961-03-311961-03-31DR-111-IAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-07-051958-07-05DR-86-IAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1954-06-231954-06-23DR-17-IAMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-111953-06-11DR-8-IAMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Iowa county: 11 rows, $7,881,708.52; listed on the Iowa state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave30528001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought2310010001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail110549001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave12303001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm4000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding433031421996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind123309511955 to 2026-06-30Includes 17 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado18033821950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather9910214101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-08-15Drought$0 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2017-05-17Lightning$60,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0ORCHARDB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2013-05-19Flash Flood$4,500,000 property; $20,000,000 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0OTRANTO to MEROAB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-09-02Thunderstorm Wind61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $41,400,000 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0CARPENTER to RICEVILLEB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
2010-10-26High Wind77 kt (89 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2010-01-01Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2007-02-23Winter Storm$125,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2001-07-31Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-11-10High Wind58 kt (67 mph), measurement type not recorded$200,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone IAZ008 (MITCHELL), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
1991-04-12Thunderstorm Wind74 kt (85 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1990-06-27Hail3 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1981-05-23TornadoF2, 3.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1981 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (465 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave9.74event-days per yearabout 9.74 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 14 of 30 years)event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)1852005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought21.8event-days per yearabout 21.8 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)5532000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000428annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0428%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.55events per yearabout 4.55 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)172.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave3.79event-days per yearabout 3.79 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 8 of 30 years)event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)602005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0events per yearnone modeledUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.69event-days per yearabout 0.69 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)471946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.14event-days per yearabout 1.14 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 14 of 30 years)event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)321996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0491events per year (modeled)about 1 in 20 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning39.7days per year with a strikeabout 39.7 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.8events per yearabout 3.8 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1451986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.378events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000993annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00993%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather18.5event-days per yearabout 18.5 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 29 of 30 years)event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)3522005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202532301.07
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20258300.267
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202556301.87
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202513300.433
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202510300.333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 361.583.788.5Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Drought3 of 389.499.499.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Low 1
Earthquake3 of 37.510.110.5Very Low 3
Hail3 of 381.894.996.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Heat Wave3 of 322.124.426.7Relatively Low 3
Hurricane0 of 3No Rating 3
Ice Storm3 of 359.360.463.6Relatively Low 3
Inland Flooding3 of 361.792.597.2Very High 1, Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide3 of 342.883.584.9Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Lightning3 of 354.658.460.3Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind3 of 395.7100.0100.0Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Tornado3 of 391.593.795.4Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Wildfire3 of 358.972.274.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Winter Weather3 of 393.594.494.4Relatively High 3

Cold Wave: Agriculture is 65% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 62% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Strong Wind: Agriculture is 93% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Mitchell CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 2, SRL 0; any 5$210,760.210 total; 0 since its plan
Carpenter cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; 0 since its plan
McIntire cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Mitchell cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded11 total; 0 since its plan
Orchard cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,229.9012 total; 0 since its plan
Osage cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$167,079.8753 total; 1 since its plan
Riceville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$16,177.6510 total; 1 since its plan
St. Ansgar cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$35,279.9739 total; 2 since its plan
Stacyville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$35,300.8926 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-03-29county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$1,002$370,685$194,494under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$173,215,513n/an/a$2,058,499n/a1.19% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$5,201,041,261n/a10,565$4,522n/a$1,138under 0.0001%
Hail$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$141,265$259,237$19,0190.00441%$0
Heat Wave$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$3,665$5$47,6280.000114%$0
Hurricane$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$0$0$00%
Ice Storm$3,202,915,218n/a10,556$10,593n/a$11,2110.000331%
Inland Flooding$3,200,575,095$39,849,617141$4,785,964$387,921$2,924n/a (see note)$0$209,922.55NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$10,939,054n/a39$8n/a$339under 0.0001%
Lightning$3,202,915,218n/a10,556$5,503n/a$38,9650.000172%
Strong Wind$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$283,100$4,236,484$36,2580.00884%$5,000$0$209,922.55
Tornado$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$787,049$12,852$591,0910.0246%$209,922.55
Wildfire$1,143,254,619$111,951,1703,251$4,186$121$4630.000366%
Winter Weather$3,202,915,218$406,780,46510,556$12,777$725$56,5120.000399%$0

Totals since 2023-03-29 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 10 county-coded records, 10 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $5,000; 29 zone-level records, 29 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $209,922.55 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population10,556
Building value (total, not at risk)$3,202,915,218
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$406,780,465
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$13,366,164
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,000,040
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total2040501
of which: Mitchell County (unincorporated area)2040501
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0010100

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Mitchell County1908922040501
Carpenter city1909610000000
McIntire city1904580000000
Mitchell city1904590000000
Orchard city1904600000000
Osage city1906360000000
Riceville city1904180000000
St. Ansgar city1909740000000
Stacyville city1904610000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential2030401
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0010100
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 3 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Mitchell County, IA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 19131). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ia/19131/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.