Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Pike County, GA

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
13231
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA, GEMA/HS or any other state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-09-15. Plan: Pike County (FEMA plan 111174), approved 2026-09-16.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-09-16: no new hazard declaration; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,188,795 a year), Tornado ($445,259) and Strong Wind ($222,259).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-09-15
Plan:
Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)
Approved:
2026-09-16
Days to expiry:
1,811

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-09-16)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Pike County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-09-15Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)2026-09-162031-09-151,811
Concord cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)2026-09-162031-09-151,811
Meansville cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)2026-09-162031-09-151,811
Molena cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)2026-09-162031-09-151,811
Williamson cityCityPlan 111174 approved 2026-09-16, pending adoption here; not yet eligiblePike County (FEMA plan 111174), pending adoption here2026-09-16 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-15 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Zebulon cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15Pike County (FEMA plan 111174)2026-09-162031-09-151,811

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification GEMA template A: Hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,187,483$62$1,250$2,188,79546
2TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$269,505$762$174,992$445,25911
3Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$52,531$4,567$165,161$222,25991Includes 2 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
4Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$9$141$161,316$161,46612
5DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$139,048n/a$139,04834
6EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$102,313n/a$32,031$134,344Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$99,123$5,440$26,273$130,83623
8LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$28,255n/a$90,291$118,5466
9HurricaneVery LowVery Low$34,683$28,602$2,143$65,42818
10Cold WaveVery LowVery Low$1,397$12,275$23,027$36,69814Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
11Ice StormRelatively LowVery Low$24,581n/a$444$25,0253
12WildfireVery LowVery Low$11,353$34$4,515$15,9020No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$1,853$32$404$2,28911
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$19n/a$24$440No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 101.02 (Relatively Low, 65.6); tract 101.01 (Relatively Low, 55.8); tract 102 (Relatively Low, 43.7)
Hurricanetract 101.02 (Relatively Low, 57.1); tract 103 (Relatively Low, 54.8); tract 101.01 (Relatively Low, 54.8)
Landslidetract 104 (Very Low, 72.4); tract 103 (Very Low, 58.4); tract 101.02 (Very Low, 51.3)
Tornadotract 101.02 (Relatively Moderate, 66.1); tract 101.01 (Relatively Moderate, 61.7); tract 102 (Relatively Moderate, 58.2)
Wildfiretract 103 (Relatively Low, 78.7); tract 101.02 (Relatively Low, 77.9); tract 104 (Relatively Low, 77.4)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 101.02 is Census Tract 101.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill13 records, 1996 to 2003 (13 zone-level)1 day to 31 days (median 4 days); 10 with a recorded valueDecember 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)34 records, 1997 to 2026 (34 zone-level)22 days to 184 days (median 31 days); 18 with a recorded value184 days (6 months), 2016-08-01 to 2017-01-31, a run of 6 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2000-06-01, property not reported; $2,740,000 crops (zone total, 2000 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)27 records, 1988 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 0.88 in); 27 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2006-01-02Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Zebulon city (8 records), Williamson city (5 records), Molena city (4 records), Concord city (2 records), Meansville city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)12 records, 1999 to 2012 (12 zone-level)3 days to 33 days (median 10 days); 5 with a recorded value1999-07-20 to 1999-08-21 (2 records, 1 of them a monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson18 records, 2002 to 2024 (18 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2017-09-11, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2017 dollars); NWS zone GAZ068Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 2000 to 2014 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2000-01-28, $32,790 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone GAZ068Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)46 records, 1996 to 2024 (6 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2023-03-26, $15,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Concord city (6 records), Williamson city (3 records), Meansville city (2 records), Molena city (2 records), Zebulon city (1 record). Zone-level records (6) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)6 records, 1997 to 2024Lightning, 1998-10-07, $300,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Zebulon city (3 records), Concord city (1 record), Meansville city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 2004 to 2005 (4 zone-level)33 kt (38 mph) to 50 kt (58 mph) (median 37 kt (43 mph)); 4 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2004-09-16; NWS zone GAZ068High Wind, 2004-09-06, $500,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2004 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)101 records, 1982 to 202639 kt (45 mph) to 60 kt (69 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 73 with a recorded value60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-06-17; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2003-03-05Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Zebulon city (17 records), Molena city (13 records), Williamson city (12 records), Concord city (6 records), Meansville city (4 records).Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)14 records, 1971 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 14 with a recorded valueEF3 tornado, 2023-01-12, 30.98 mi whole path (NCEI repeats the full path length on each county's record; the part in this county is shorter), 2,200 yd wide, damage not reported, 18 direct injuries (for the whole tornado; NCEI repeats them on each county's record)Tornado, 1993-02-22, $5,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1993 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Williamson city (4 records), Concord city (1 record), Zebulon city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)11 records, 1996 to 2025 (11 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2005-01-28, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone GAZ068Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 15 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Storm Events records since the plan: not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-22EM-3642-GAEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2024-09-302024-09-24DR-4830-GAMajor disasterHurricane HeleneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2024-09-262024-09-24EM-3616-GAEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4830
2023-01-162023-01-12DR-4685-GAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this countywithin last 5 years
2020-03-292020-01-20DR-4501-GAMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3464-GAEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4501
2017-09-152017-09-07DR-4338-GAMajor disasterHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-082017-09-07EM-3387-GAEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4338
2014-03-062014-02-10DR-4165-GAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormIce Storm$6,569.89
2014-02-112014-02-10EM-3368-GAEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4165
2005-09-052005-08-27EM-3218-GAEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-242004-09-03DR-1560-GAMajor disasterTropical Storm FrancesHurricane$8,433.81
2004-09-182004-09-14DR-1554-GAMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricane$13,194
2000-01-282000-01-22DR-1311-GAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$579,712.28
1998-03-111998-02-14DR-1209-GAMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1995-10-101995-10-04DR-1071-GAMajor disasterHurricane OpalHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1994-07-071994-07-03DR-1033-GAMajor disasterTornadoes, Flooding Torrential Rain(Trop Storm Alberto)Tornado (primary); also designated: Hurricane, Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-151993-03-13EM-3097-GAEmergencySevere Snowfall, Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-041993-02-21DR-980-GAMajor disasterTornadoes, High Winds & Heavy RainsTornado (primary); also designated: Strong WindPA not declared for this county
1990-02-231990-02-10DR-857-GAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornaodes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1977-07-201977-07-20EM-3044-GAEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-11-041964-11-04DR-180-GAMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding
1964-09-101964-09-10DR-177-GAMajor disasterHurricane DoraHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1963-03-261963-03-26DR-150-GAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1961-03-021961-03-02DR-110-GAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1954-03-171954-03-17DR-16-GAMajor disasterTornadoTornado
1953-05-021953-05-02DR-1-GAMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave1400001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought3433101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake00000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail2713001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave1200001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane1801601996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm300101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding46028301996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning601001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind105140201955 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado1405401950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather1101301996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-03-26Flash Flood$15,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 0WEAVERwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2023-01-12TornadoEF3, 30.98 mi whole path (NCEI repeats the full path length on each county's record; the part in this county is shorter), 2,200 yd wide; deaths and injuries for the whole tornado; NCEI repeats them on each county's recorddamage not reported0, 18 (whole tornado, all counties)HOLLONVILLE to BEEKSwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2017-09-11Tropical Storm$100,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone GAZ068 (PIKE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2016-08-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)0, 0NWS zone GAZ068 (PIKE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2016-06-17Thunderstorm Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$50,000 property; crops not reported (2016 dollars)0, 0ZEBULON to WEAVERB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2006-01-02Hail2.75 in$400,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0MOLENAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2006-01-02TornadoF3, 3 mi within this county, 440 yd wide$750,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 3HOLLONVILLEdeaths or injuries recorded
2004-09-16High Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$250,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2004 dollars)0, 0NWS zone GAZ068 (PIKE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2000-12-01Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone GAZ068 (PIKE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1999-07-20Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone GAZ068 (PIKE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-10-07Lightning$300,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0ZEBULONB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1993-02-22TornadoF2, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$5,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1993 dollars)1, 2Concord todeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (290 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.579event-days per yearabout 0.579 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)112005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought51.9event-days per yearabout 51.9 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)1,5472000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00162annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.161%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.54events per yearabout 4.54 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)172.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave3.74event-days per yearabout 3.74 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)632005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0684events per yearabout 1 in 15 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)141851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.789event-days per yearabout 0.789 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)541946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.607event-days per yearabout 0.607 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)171996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0886events per year (modeled)about 1 in 11 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning62.5days per year with a strikeabout 62.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.29events per yearabout 2.29 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)871986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.146events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000919annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0919%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.11event-days per yearabout 1.11 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)212005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202510300.333
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202556301.87
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202530301
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions GEMA template F: Multi-jurisdictional differences

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave5 of 522.222.724.3Relatively Low 5
Drought3 of 593.393.393.8Relatively Moderate 3, No Rating 2
Earthquake5 of 535.443.765.6Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Hail5 of 569.273.782.3Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 1
Heat Wave5 of 543.045.858.6Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 4
Hurricane5 of 553.454.857.1Relatively Low 5
Ice Storm5 of 538.549.371.9Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 4
Inland Flooding5 of 531.439.054.6Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 4
Landslide5 of 546.351.372.4Very Low 5
Lightning5 of 571.973.686.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind5 of 571.677.686.7Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Tornado5 of 553.658.266.1Relatively Moderate 5
Wildfire5 of 574.077.478.7Relatively Low 5
Winter Weather5 of 522.823.229.5Relatively Low 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Pike County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$588,635.490 total; not yet covered
Concord cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded16 total; not yet covered
Meansville cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded8 total; not yet covered
Molena cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded19 total; not yet covered
Williamson cityCityPlan 111174 approved 2026-09-16, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded24 total; no approved plan
Zebulon cityCityApproved, expires 2031-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,628.1330 total; not yet covered

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts GEMA template C/D: Community exposure; Estimate of potential losses

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-09-16county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$1,397$12,275$23,027under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$2,954,058n/an/a$139,048n/a4.71% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$5,702,036,752n/a18,889$102,313n/a$32,0310.00179%
Hail$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$99,123$5,440$26,2730.00288%
Heat Wave$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$9$141$161,316under 0.0001%
Hurricane$3,444,351,322$24,251,89218,887$34,683$28,602$2,1430.00101%
Ice Storm$3,444,351,322n/a18,887$24,581n/a$4440.000714%
Inland Flooding$3,439,046,876$154,33940$2,187,483$62$1,250n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$43,036,139n/a239$19n/a$24under 0.0001%
Lightning$3,444,351,322n/a18,887$28,255n/a$90,2910.00082%
Strong Wind$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$52,531$4,567$165,1610.00153%
Tornado$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$269,505$762$174,9920.00782%
Wildfire$346,891,688$4,523,0493,850$11,353$34$4,5150.00327%
Winter Weather$3,444,351,322$24,251,97218,887$1,853$32$404under 0.0001%

Totals since 2026-09-16: Storm Events not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context) GEMA template I: Social vulnerability

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population18,887
Building value (total, not at risk)$3,444,351,322
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$24,251,972
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$3,004,067
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$681,871
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Moderate
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file2252616

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Pike County (unincorporated area)1305110000000
Concord city1306320000000
Meansville city1306330000000
Molena city1303760000000
Williamson city1306760000000
Zebulon city1305290000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

GEMA local plan template

Section headings show the GEMA local hazard mitigation plan template letter (A to I) next to the FEMA checklist item (template: https://gema.georgia.gov/document/publication/local-hazard-mitigation-plan-update-template/download). No letter is documented for repetitive loss; place B2-c where your GEMA template puts it.

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Pike County, GA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 13231). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ga/13231/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]