Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-12-20. Plan: Forsyth County (FEMA plan 108386), approved 2022-12-21.
Since the plan was approved on 2022-12-21: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 27 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($57,843,758 a year), Tornado ($16,035,179) and Cold Wave ($5,410,327).
The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.
Plan clock
- Status:
- Approved, expires 2027-12-20
- Plan:
- Forsyth County (FEMA plan 108386)
- Approved:
- 2022-12-21
- Days to expiry:
- 446
What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-12-21)
- New federal declarations:
- 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3616-GA (Hurricane Helene), EM-3642-GA (Severe Winter Storm)
- Storm Events records since approval:
- 27 records (data through 2026-06-30)
- Repetitive loss now:
- FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5
- Repeat-flood change:
- this release sets the baseline count.
Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)
Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county
Source: 1
| Jurisdiction | Type | Status | Plan | Approved | Expires | Days to expirynegative = days since expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forsyth County (unincorporated area) | Unincorporated | Approved, expires 2027-12-20 | Forsyth County (FEMA plan 108386) | 2022-12-21 | 2027-12-20 | 446 |
| Cumming city | City | Approved, expires 2027-12-20 | Forsyth County (FEMA plan 108386) | 2022-12-21 | 2027-12-20 | 446 |
State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification GEMA template A: Hazard identification
Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)
- dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
- levee failure
- flash flood as its own subtype
- ice jams
- debris flows
- erosion (riverine and coastal)
- land subsidence and sinkholes
- expansive soils
The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)
Sources: 5, 6
| Rank by EAL | Hazard | NRI risk rating | EAL rating | EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year | EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year | Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage | EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year | Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count | Storm Events coverage note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inland Flooding | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | $57,718,339 | $25,578 | $99,841 | $57,843,758 | 33 | |
| 2 | Tornado | Relatively High | Relatively High | $7,505,390 | $2,217 | $8,527,573 | $16,035,179 | 6 | |
| 3 | Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | Relatively High | $49,350 | $56,381 | $5,304,597 | $5,410,327 | 14 | Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor). |
| 4 | Earthquake | Relatively Low | Relatively Moderate | $2,744,045 | n/a | $522,056 | $3,266,102 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes. | |
| 5 | Hail | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | $2,105,434 | $143 | $45,263 | $2,150,840 | 96 | |
| 6 | Strong Wind | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Moderate | $455,245 | $2,789 | $1,040,189 | $1,498,223 | 145 | Includes 4 High Wind and 13 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition). |
| 7 | Lightning | Relatively High | Relatively High | $254,821 | n/a | $1,233,458 | $1,488,279 | 36 | |
| 8 | Heat Wave | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $77 | $90 | $1,016,349 | $1,016,516 | 11 | |
| 9 | Ice Storm | Relatively Moderate | Relatively High | $591,965 | n/a | $6,948 | $598,913 | 9 | |
| 10 | Hurricane | Very Low | Relatively Low | $166,788 | $18,738 | $6,633 | $192,159 | 17 | |
| 11 | Wildfire | Very Low | Very Low | $50,921 | $52 | $13,997 | $64,970 | 2 | |
| 12 | Winter Weather | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $28,539 | $77 | $11,627 | $40,244 | 39 | |
| 13 | Landslide | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $11,798 | n/a | $1,072 | $12,870 | 0 | No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30). |
| 14 | Drought | No Rating | No Expected Annual Losses | n/a | $0 | n/a | $0 | 39 |
Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).
NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.
Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)
Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.
Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts
Source: 5
| Hazard | Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100 |
|---|---|
| Earthquake | tract 1306.01 (Relatively Low, 77.1); tract 1306.03 (Relatively Low, 76.8); tract 1304.10 (Relatively Low, 76.6) |
| Hurricane | tract 1306.03 (Very Low, 49.8); tract 1303.06 (Very Low, 48.8); tract 1306.01 (Very Low, 47.8) |
| Landslide | tract 1302.01 (Relatively Low, 92.9); tract 1301.03 (Relatively Low, 92.9); tract 1305.05 (Relatively Low, 92.1) |
| Tornado | tract 1306.03 (Very High, 95.0); tract 1303.06 (Very High, 94.1); tract 1303.02 (Relatively High, 92.9) |
| Wildfire | tract 1302.05 (Relatively Low, 77.6); tract 1301.01 (Relatively Low, 76.6); tract 1302.04 (Relatively Low, 76.3) |
Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1306.01 is Census Tract 1306.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)
Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard
Sources: 6, 7
| Hazard | Scale | Recordscount and years | Observed range | Worst recorded event | Most damaging (when different) | How it applies to jurisdictions | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | wind chill | 13 records, 1996 to 2003 (13 zone-level) | 1 day to 31 days (median 4 days); 10 with a recorded value | December 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-level | Countywide (zone-level records). | Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run. | |
| Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition) | crop damage | 1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level) | No crop damage reported in 1 record. | Countywide (zone-level records). | |||
| Drought | U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4) | 39 records, 1997 to 2026 (39 zone-level) | 22 days to 273 days (median 31 days); 19 with a recorded value | 273 days (9 months), 2016-08-01 to 2017-04-30, a run of 9 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level | Drought, 2000-06-01, property not reported; $1,800,000 crops (zone total, 2000 dollars) | Countywide (zone-level records). | Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only. |
| Earthquake | Modified Mercalli (local data) | 0 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source. | ||||
| Hail | hail size (inches) | 109 records, 1963 to 2025 | 0.75 in to 4 in (median 1 in); 109 with a recorded value | 4 in hail, 1998-05-07 | Hail, 2020-05-22, $5,000,000 property; crops not reported (2020 dollars) | Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cumming city (52 records). | |
| Excessive Heat, Heat | heat index (in event narratives) | 11 records, 1999 to 2012 (11 zone-level) | 3 days to 33 days (median 10 days); 5 with a recorded value | 1999-07-20 to 1999-08-21 (2 records, 1 of them a monthly summary record), zone-level | Countywide (zone-level records). | Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run. | |
| Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression | Saffir-Simpson | 17 records, 2002 to 2024 (17 zone-level) | Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2017-09-11, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2017 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injury (reported for the zone); NWS zone GAZ022 | Countywide (zone-level records). | Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records. | ||
| Ice Storm | Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data) | 9 records, 1997 to 2026 (9 zone-level) | Ice Storm, 2000-01-22, $980,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone GAZ022 | Countywide (zone-level records). | |||
| Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood | damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM) | 33 records, 1997 to 2020 (4 zone-level) | Flood, 2009-09-21, $330,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars) | Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cumming city (5 records). Zone-level records (4) apply countywide. | Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most. | ||
| Debris Flow | none (count and damage only) | 0 | |||||
| Lightning | annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names) | 36 records, 1998 to 2017 | Lightning, 2007-06-25, $0 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars), 1 direct death | Lightning, 2005-08-13, $750,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars) | Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cumming city (24 records). | Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties. | |
| High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition) | wind speed (kt and mph) | 17 records, 1998 to 2012 (17 zone-level) | 30 kt (35 mph) to 50 kt (58 mph) (median 37 kt (43 mph)); 13 with a recorded value | 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2009-04-13; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2004-09-16; NWS zone GAZ022 | Countywide (zone-level records). | ||
| Thunderstorm Wind | wind speed (kt and mph) | 153 records, 1966 to 2025 | 33 kt (38 mph) to 83 kt (96 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 103 with a recorded value | 83 kt (96 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-07-20 | Thunderstorm Wind, 2008-02-26, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars) | Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cumming city (57 records). | |
| Tornado | Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007) | 10 records, 1959 to 2026 | F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median between F/EF0 and F/EF1); 10 with a recorded value | F3 tornado, 1970-04-02, 6.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1970 dollars) | Tornado, 1975-03-13, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1975 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. | Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods). |
| Wildfire | acres burned (local data) | 2 records, 2004 (2 zone-level) | Wildfire, 2004-04-04, $2,190,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars), 7 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone GAZ022 | Countywide (zone-level records). | |||
| Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet | none in data (snowfall: local data) | 39 records, 1999 to 2026 (39 zone-level) | Winter Storm, 2005-01-28, $150,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone GAZ022 | Countywide (zone-level records). |
In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.
Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).
Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.
A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)
Federal declarations for this county: 17 declarations covering 13 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).
Federal disaster declarations for this county
Sources: 1, 2, 3
| Declared | Incident began | FEMA number | Type | Title | Mapped hazard | County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars | Flags | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | 2026-01-22 | EM-3642-GA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | Winter Weather | no Public Assistance recorded | new since last plan; within last 5 years | |
| 2024-09-26 | 2024-09-24 | EM-3616-GA | Emergency | Hurricane Helene | Hurricane | no Public Assistance recorded | new since last plan; within last 5 years | |
| 2021-01-12 | 2020-10-29 | DR-4579-GA | Major disaster | Tropical Storm Zeta | Hurricane | $2,476,465.33 | ||
| 2020-03-29 | 2020-01-20 | DR-4501-GA | Major disaster | COVID-19 Pandemic | Non-natural, not counted | $730,349.18 | ||
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-01-20 | EM-3464-GA | Emergency | COVID-19 | Non-natural, not counted | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-4501 | |
| 2017-09-15 | 2017-09-07 | DR-4338-GA | Major disaster | Hurricane Irma | Hurricane | $1,738,855.60 | ||
| 2017-09-08 | 2017-09-07 | EM-3387-GA | Emergency | Hurricane Irma | Hurricane | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-4338 | |
| 2015-04-20 | 2015-02-15 | DR-4215-GA | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | Ice Storm | $2,354,237.45 | ||
| 2014-02-11 | 2014-02-10 | EM-3368-GA | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | Ice Storm | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2005-09-05 | 2005-08-27 | EM-3218-GA | Emergency | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation | Hurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2004-09-18 | 2004-09-14 | DR-1554-GA | Major disaster | Hurricane Ivan | Hurricane | $986,974.08 | ||
| 2000-01-28 | 2000-01-22 | DR-1311-GA | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | Winter Weather | $1,357,510.58 | ||
| 1998-03-11 | 1998-02-14 | DR-1209-GA | Major disaster | Severe Storms and Flooding | Inland Flooding | PA not declared for this county | ||
| 1995-10-10 | 1995-10-04 | DR-1071-GA | Major disaster | Hurricane Opal | Hurricane | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 1993-03-15 | 1993-03-13 | EM-3097-GA | Emergency | Severe Snowfall, Winter Storm | Winter Weather | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 1977-07-20 | 1977-07-20 | EM-3044-GA | Emergency | Drought | Drought | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 1974-04-05 | 1974-04-05 | DR-425-GA | Major disaster | Tornadoes | Tornado | no Public Assistance recorded |
County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.
Statewide declarations
Source: 2
| Declared | Incident began | FEMA number | Type | Title | Mapped hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1964-11-04 | 1964-11-04 | DR-180-GA | Major disaster | Flooding | Inland Flooding |
| 1964-09-10 | 1964-09-10 | DR-177-GA | Major disaster | Hurricane Dora | Hurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding |
| 1963-03-26 | 1963-03-26 | DR-150-GA | Major disaster | Severe Storms & Flooding | Inland Flooding |
| 1961-03-02 | 1961-03-02 | DR-110-GA | Major disaster | Floods | Inland Flooding |
| 1954-03-17 | 1954-03-17 | DR-16-GA | Major disaster | Tornado | Tornado |
| 1953-05-02 | 1953-05-02 | DR-1-GA | Major disaster | Tornado | Tornado |
FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.
Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 2 rows, $244,804.58
Sources: 2, 3
| FEMA number | Declared | Title | Applicant | PA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR-4830-GA | 2024-09-30 | Hurricane Helene | Sawnee Electric Membership Corporation | $222,274.32 |
| DR-1858-GA | 2009-09-24 | Severe Storms and Flooding | Sawnee Electric Membership Corporation | $22,530.26 |
FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.
Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows
Sources: 2, 6, 7
| Hazard | Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column) | Since plan approvalrecords | In the 12 months before plan approvalrecords | Last 5 yearsrecords | Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters | Declared since approvalseparate disasters | Period | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record. |
| Drought | 39 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Earthquake | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source. | |
| Hail | 109 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1955 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Heat Wave | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Hurricane | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Ice Storm | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Inland Flooding | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Landslide | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events |
| Lightning | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Strong Wind | 170 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1955 to 2026-06-30 | Includes 4 High Wind and 13 Strong Wind records. |
| Tornado | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1950 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Wildfire | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | |
| Winter Weather | 39 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 |
Notable Storm Events records
Sources: 1, 6, 7
| Date | Event type | Magnitude or extent | Damagenominal dollars | Deaths, injuriesdirect only | Location | Flags | Why listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-20 | Thunderstorm Wind | 83 kt (96 mph) estimated gust | $0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars) | 0, 0 | MATT to COAL MTN | new since last plan; within last 5 years | B1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind |
| 2017-09-11 | Tropical Storm | $100,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2017 dollars) | 1, 1 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | deaths or injuries recorded | ||
| 2011-11-16 | Thunderstorm Wind | 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust | $20,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars) | 1, 0 | DREW | deaths or injuries recorded | |
| 2009-09-21 | Flood | $330,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars) | 0, 0 | HIGHTOWER to BIG CREEK | B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood | ||
| 2009-04-13 | High Wind | 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust | $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind | |
| 2007-06-25 | Lightning | $0 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars) | 1, 0 | CUMMING | deaths or injuries recorded | ||
| 2004-04-04 | Wildfire | $2,190,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2004 dollars) | 0, 7 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Wildfire | ||
| 2000-12-01 | Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | damage not reported | 0, 0 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | ||
| 2000-01-22 | Ice Storm | $980,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2000 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm | ||
| 1999-07-20 | Heat | damage not reported | 0, 0 | NWS zone GAZ022 (FORSYTH), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat | ||
| 1998-05-07 | Hail | 4 in | $10,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars) | 0, 0 | DUCKTOWN to CUMMING | B1-c worst recorded: Hail | |
| 1970-04-02 | Tornado | F3, 6.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide | $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1970 dollars) | 0, 0 | location not recorded | B1-c worst recorded: Tornado |
The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (489 rows).
Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.
Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).
Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events GEMA template B: Hazard profile (events and probability)
Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard
Sources: 5, 6
| Hazard | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row | Unit | In plain terms | Descriptor | Descriptor basis | NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional) | NRI period | Location | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | 1.11 | event-days per year | about 1.11 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%) | 21 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide | |
| Drought | 32.9 | event-days per year | about 32.9 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%) | 1,127 | 2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only) | countywide | |
| Earthquake | 0.00242 | annual probability at a location | chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.242% | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes). | ||
| Hail | 5.48 | events per year | about 5.48 per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 207.8 (modeled) | 1986 to 2023 (38 years) | countywide | |
| Heat Wave | 1.79 | event-days per year | about 1.79 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%) | 32 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide | |
| Hurricane | 0.0249 | events per year | about 1 in 40 years | Possible | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 4 | 1851 to 2024 (Atlantic) | see B1-f | NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d. |
| Ice Storm | 0.985 | event-days per year | about 0.985 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%) | 67 | 1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years) | countywide | |
| Inland Flooding | 0.964 | event-days per year | about 0.964 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%) | 27 | 1996 to 2023 (28 years) | see B1-f | |
| Landslide | 0.491 | events per year (modeled) | about 1 in 2 years | Likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | |
| Lightning | 59.8 | days per year with a strike | about 59.8 days per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | 1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS) | countywide | |
| Strong Wind | 2.64 | events per year | about 2.64 per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 100 | 1986 to 2023 (38 years) | countywide | |
| Tornado | 0.143 | events per year | about 1 in 7 years | Likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | 1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1) | see B1-f | |
| Wildfire | 0.000455 | annual probability at a location | chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0455% | Possible | Storm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%) | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | |
| Winter Weather | 3.47 | event-days per year | about 3.47 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 19 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (63.3%) | 66 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide |
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.
Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.
Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)
Sources: 5, 6
| Unit | Descriptor | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| events per year | Highly likely | 1 or more per year |
| events per year | Likely | about once in 1 to 10 years |
| events per year | Possible | about once in 10 to 100 years |
| events per year | Unlikely | less than once in 100 years |
| annual probability | Likely | 10% to under 100% chance in a given year |
| annual probability | Possible | 1% to under 10% chance in a given year |
| annual probability | Unlikely | under 1% chance in a given year |
| event-days (share of years) | Highly likely | event-days recorded in 90% or more of years |
| event-days (share of years) | Likely | event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years |
| event-days (share of years) | Possible | event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years |
| lightning strike-days | Highly likely | cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year |
Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)
Source: 6
| Hazard | Band | Years | Eventscounty-coded records | Years in period | Events per yearevents / years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 1.00-1.99 in | 1996 to 2025 | 54 | 30 | 1.8 |
| Hail | 2.00 in+ | 1996 to 2025 | 4 | 30 | 0.133 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | 50-64 kt | 1996 to 2025 | 75 | 30 | 2.5 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | 65 kt+ | 1996 to 2025 | 3 | 30 | 0.1 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | unmeasured or below 50 kt | 1996 to 2025 | 50 | 30 | 1.67 |
| Tornado | EF0-1 | 1996 to 2025 | 5 | 30 | 0.167 |
| Tornado | EF2-3 | 1996 to 2025 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| Tornado | EF4-5 | 1996 to 2025 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| Tornado | unrated (EFU) | 1996 to 2025 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).
Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.
Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions GEMA template F: Multi-jurisdictional differences
Range of census tract risk within the county
Source: 5
| Hazard | Tractsrated of all | NRI risk score, 0 to 100 | Tracts by rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Min | Median | Max | |||
| Cold Wave | 48 of 48 | 45.5 | 62.2 | 78.6 | Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 46, Relatively Low 1 |
| Drought | 0 of 48 | No Rating 48 | |||
| Earthquake | 48 of 48 | 32.6 | 58.0 | 77.1 | Relatively Low 43, Very Low 5 |
| Hail | 48 of 48 | 58.8 | 76.5 | 88.4 | Relatively Moderate 41, Relatively Low 7 |
| Heat Wave | 48 of 48 | 9.7 | 21.6 | 42.5 | Relatively Low 38, Very Low 10 |
| Hurricane | 48 of 48 | 35.3 | 42.4 | 49.8 | Very Low 48 |
| Ice Storm | 48 of 48 | 40.5 | 66.9 | 83.6 | Relatively Moderate 21, Relatively Low 27 |
| Inland Flooding | 48 of 48 | 22.3 | 71.5 | 96.4 | Very High 1, Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 25, Relatively Low 10 |
| Landslide | 48 of 48 | 61.0 | 80.7 | 92.9 | Relatively Low 23, Very Low 25 |
| Lightning | 48 of 48 | 47.7 | 69.9 | 89.2 | Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 34, Relatively Low 1 |
| Strong Wind | 48 of 48 | 36.7 | 57.1 | 75.0 | Relatively Moderate 31, Relatively Low 17 |
| Tornado | 48 of 48 | 58.7 | 77.8 | 95.0 | Very High 2, Relatively High 33, Relatively Moderate 13 |
| Wildfire | 48 of 48 | 28.0 | 61.0 | 77.6 | Relatively Low 16, Very Low 32 |
| Winter Weather | 48 of 48 | 19.5 | 25.9 | 36.2 | Relatively Low 48 |
Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.
The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.
Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.
Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)
Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6
| Jurisdiction | Type | Plan status | Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition | Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars | Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forsyth County (unincorporated area) | Unincorporated | Approved, expires 2027-12-20 | FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5 | $1,584,724.62 | 0 total; 0 since its plan | Includes $730,349.18 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4501-GA). |
| Cumming city | City | Approved, expires 2027-12-20 | FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0 | $136,617.33 | 138 total; 1 since its plan |
Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).
County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts GEMA template C/D: Community exposure; Estimate of potential losses
Local data needed
The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
- The 2024 Georgia Hazard Mitigation Strategy says the State provides a Level 2 Hazus analysis as part of each county's plan update, and GMIS holds critical-facility data. Use them for B2-a and B2-b. https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/georgia-hazard-mitigation-strategy-2024/download
- The 2024 Georgia Hazard Mitigation Strategy notes that FEMA restricted access to repetitive-loss property data. The current list comes from GEMA/HS or the state NFIP coordinator. https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/georgia-hazard-mitigation-strategy-2024/download
County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
| Hazard | Building exposuremodeled dollars | Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars | Population exposedpeople | EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year | EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year | Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage | EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted | Storm Events damage since 2022-12-21county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollars | Zone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zone | Public Assistance since plannominal dollars; see note | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | $63,720,514,017 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $49,350 | $56,381 | $5,304,597 | under 0.0001% | ||||
| Drought | n/a | $0 | n/a | n/a | $0 | n/a | $0 | agriculture exposure is 0 in NRI | |||
| Earthquake | $103,712,839,021 | n/a | 251,283 | $2,744,045 | n/a | $522,056 | 0.00265% | ||||
| Hail | $63,720,518,437 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $2,105,434 | $143 | $45,263 | 0.0033% | ||||
| Heat Wave | $63,720,514,017 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $77 | $90 | $1,016,349 | under 0.0001% | ||||
| Hurricane | $63,571,707,933 | $57,031,185 | 250,549 | $166,788 | $18,738 | $6,633 | 0.000262% | $1,000 | no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration) | ||
| Ice Storm | $63,711,771,232 | n/a | 251,186 | $591,965 | n/a | $6,948 | 0.000929% | ||||
| Inland Flooding | $63,644,508,355 | $3,844,785 | 2,029 | $57,718,339 | $25,578 | $99,841 | n/a (see note) | NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b. | |||
| Landslide | $4,757,861,348 | n/a | 19,757 | $11,798 | n/a | $1,072 | 0.000248% | ||||
| Lightning | $63,720,518,437 | n/a | 251,239 | $254,821 | n/a | $1,233,458 | 0.0004% | ||||
| Strong Wind | $63,720,518,437 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $455,245 | $2,789 | $1,040,189 | 0.000714% | $45,500 | |||
| Tornado | $63,720,518,437 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $7,505,390 | $2,217 | $8,527,573 | 0.0118% | $0 | |||
| Wildfire | $2,826,424,461 | $11,556,726 | 24,418 | $50,921 | $52 | $13,997 | 0.0018% | ||||
| Winter Weather | $63,720,514,017 | $59,103,302 | 251,239 | $28,539 | $77 | $11,627 | under 0.0001% | $0 | no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration) |
Totals since 2022-12-21 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 19 county-coded records, 12 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $45,500; 8 zone-level records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $1,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.
FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.
NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context) GEMA template I: Social vulnerability
County context
Source: 5
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 251,239 |
| Building value (total, not at risk) | $63,720,518,437 |
| Agriculture value (total, not at risk) | $59,103,302 |
| NRI risk rating (all hazards) | Relatively Moderate |
| Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards | $71,788,777 |
| Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage) | $17,829,603 |
| Social vulnerability rating | Very Low |
| Community resilience rating | Relatively High |
| NRI version | December 2025 |
FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.
Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties
Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions
Sources: 1, 4
| Definition | Properties | Severe repetitive loss | Properties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2) | 0 | Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2) | 0 |
| Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition | 5 | Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition | 0 |
The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).
Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows
Sources: 1, 4
| Scope | RL, FMAproperties | SRL, FMAproperties | RL, NFIPproperties | SRL, NFIPproperties | Any categoryproperties | Mitigatedproperties | Currently insuredproperties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County total | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| of which: Forsyth County (unincorporated area) | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Statewide, no county in FEMA's file | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.
Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)
Sources: 1, 4
| Jurisdiction | NFIP community ID | RL, FMAproperties | SRL, FMAproperties | RL, NFIPproperties | SRL, NFIPproperties | Any categoryproperties | Mitigatedproperties | Currently insuredproperties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forsyth County (unincorporated area) | 130312 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Cumming city | 130236 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".
Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.
County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group
Sources: 1, 4
| Occupancy group | RL, FMAproperties | SRL, FMAproperties | RL, NFIPproperties | SRL, NFIPproperties | Any categoryproperties | Mitigatedproperties | Currently insuredproperties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| single-family residential | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 to 4 unit residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| other residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| non-residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| not reported | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.
FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.
Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.
In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 5 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.
Exact counts; no count suppression.
Sources
Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):
- FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
- FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
- NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
- NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
- U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)
GEMA local plan template
Section headings show the GEMA local hazard mitigation plan template letter (A to I) next to the FEMA checklist item (template: https://gema.georgia.gov/document/publication/local-hazard-mitigation-plan-update-template/download). No letter is documented for repetitive loss; place B2-c where your GEMA template puts it.
What this packet is and what the plan adds
This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.
The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.
How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.
OpenFEMA disclaimer
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Reuse, citation and corrections
Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.
Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Forsyth County, GA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 13117). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ga/13117/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.
Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]