Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Otero County, CO

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
08089
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2025-12-28. Plan: SE Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2020 (FEMA plan 106663), approved 2020-12-29.

Since the plan was approved on 2020-12-29: no new hazard declaration and 94 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($6,532,704 a year), Cold Wave ($1,169,477) and Drought ($1,152,616).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2025-12-28
Plan:
SE Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2020 (FEMA plan 106663)
Approved:
2020-12-29
Days since expiry:
276
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2020-12-29)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
94 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 4
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Otero CountyCountyExpired on 2025-12-28SE Colorado Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan 2020 (FEMA plan 106663)2020-12-292025-12-28-276

Plan 106663 lists 11 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6, 10

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$6,222,447$265,525$44,732$6,532,70440
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$2,774$157,761$1,008,942$1,169,4771
3DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,152,616n/a$1,152,6161
4LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$2,764n/a$978,571$981,3355
5Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$45,216$114$517,175$562,505167Includes 77 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$269,695$275,373$13,658$558,725174
7TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$241,485$1,860$202,883$446,22816
8WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$194,011$190$11,174$205,3757
9Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$7,627$69$116,835$124,53042
10Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$8$2,599$79,649$82,2560No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$66,889n/a$15,152$82,041Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12Ice StormVery LowVery Low$2,006n/a$1,274$3,2801
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$14n/a$2$160Declared 2 times; no Storm Events record of this type since 1996.
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3224-CO names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9686 (Relatively Low, 48.4); tract 9683 (Relatively Low, 46.2); tract 9681 (Very Low, 36.6)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9684 (Very Low, 70.6); tract 9685 (Very Low, 31.3); tract 9683 (Very Low, 30.7)
Tornadotract 9683 (Relatively Moderate, 67.6); tract 9686 (Relatively Moderate, 65.1); tract 9681 (Relatively Moderate, 56.8)
Wildfiretract 9683 (Relatively Moderate, 95.8); tract 9684 (Relatively Moderate, 92.9); tract 9685 (Relatively Moderate, 89.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9686 is Census Tract 9686). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7, 11

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2022 (1 zone-level)2 days; 1 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2022-12-22 to 2022-12-23, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)1 record, 2002 (1 zone-level)31 days; 1 with a recorded value31 days (1 month), 2002-07-01 to 2002-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)219 records, 1957 to 20240.5 in to 4.5 in (median 1 in); 219 with a recorded value4.5 in hail, 1987-06-23Hail, 1997-10-11, $50,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2005 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)40 records, 1997 to 2024 (1 zone-level)Flood, 1999-05-01, $4,050,000 property; $2,450,000 crops (1999 dollars); Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076; covers 2 county areas)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)5 records, 1996 to 2007Lightning, 2005-09-08, damage not reported, 1 direct deathLightning, 2007-08-16, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)77 records, 1999 to 2026 (77 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 77 with a recorded value78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2021-12-15; NWS zone COZ093High Wind, 2001-04-11, $500,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2001 dollars; the zone covers 2 county areas)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)137 records, 1957 to 202450 kt (58 mph) to 81 kt (93 mph) (median 54 kt (62 mph)); 120 with a recorded value81 kt (93 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-05-16Thunderstorm Wind, 2007-06-26, $80,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)30 records, 1953 to 2022F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 23 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1953-10-20, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide, $2,500 property (pre-1996 NOAA value, recorded in damage ranges); crops not recorded (1953 dollars)Tornado, 1997-10-11, $75,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)7 records, 2005 to 2011 (7 zone-level)Wildfire, 2010-04-01, $30,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars); NWS zone COZ093Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)42 records, 1997 to 2026 (42 zone-level)Blizzard, 1997-10-24, $100,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars), 1 direct death (reported for the zone); Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076; covers 2 county areas)Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 9 declarations covering 6 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4498-COMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3436-COEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approvalsame incident as DR-4498
2007-01-072006-12-28EM-3271-COEmergencySnowWinter Weather$8,382.85
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3224-COEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-06-192002-04-23DR-1421-COMajor disasterWildfiresWildfirePA not declared for this county
1999-05-171999-04-29DR-1276-COMajor disasterCo-Flooding 4/30/99Inland Flooding; Landslide$5,470.03
1997-08-011997-07-28DR-1186-COMajor disasterSevere Storms, Heavy Rain, Flash Floods, Flooding, MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslidenot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1977-01-291977-01-29EM-3025-COEmergencyDroughtDroughtnot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1965-06-191965-06-19DR-200-COMajor disasterTornadoes, Severe Storms & FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingnot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)

Mapped hazard: "X (primary); also designated: Y" means FEMA's incident type maps to X and its designated incident codes or title add Y; a list separated by semicolons, such as "Inland Flooding; Tornado", has no primary hazard, because the incident type (Severe Storm or Coastal Storm) maps to no single hazard.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1956-06-121956-06-12DR-59-COMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1955-05-251955-05-25DR-33-COMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state (where FEMA also gives the declaration a row for the county, it is shown once, in the county table) and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

10 Fire Management declarations (1978-09-12 to 2016-07-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave1101001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought1000101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail21917116001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding4013210301996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000201996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 2 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind21447738001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 77 High Wind records.
Tornado30221101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire7000101996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather4214114101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-06-12Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 02.28 miles WSW of (LHX)LA JUNTA ARPT to 5.82 miles SSE of SWINKnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-12-22Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone COZ093 (LA JUNTA VICINITY / OTERO COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2021-12-15High Wind78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone COZ093 (LA JUNTA VICINITY / OTERO COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2016-06-12Thunderstorm Wind65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)1, 02.77 miles ESE of (LHX)LA JUNTA ARPTdeaths or injuries recorded
2010-04-01Wildfire$30,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone COZ093 (LA JUNTA VICINITY / OTERO COUNTY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2007-08-16Lightning$10,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0LA JUNTAB1-c most damaging: Lightning
2007-06-26Thunderstorm Wind78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust$80,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 08 miles SSW of LA JUNTA to 7.8 miles SSW of LA JUNTAB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
2005-09-08Lightningdamage not reported1, 03 miles S of ROCKY FORDdeaths or injuries recorded; B1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2002-07-01Droughtdamage not reported0, 0Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2001-04-11High Wind60 kt (69 mph) measured$500,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2001 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
1999-05-01Flood$4,050,000 property; $2,450,000 crops (zone total, 1999 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1997-10-24Blizzard$100,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)1, 0Storm Events area CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES/LA JUNTA AND VICINITY (legacy zone code COZ076), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1997-10-11TornadoF1, 8 mi within this county, 200 yd wide$75,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0LA JUNTA to 16 miles SE of LA JUNTAB1-c most damaging: Tornado
1997-10-11Hail2.75 in$50,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0LA JUNTAB1-c most damaging: Hail
1995-05-16Thunderstorm Wind81 kt (93 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0LaJuntaB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1987-06-23Hail4.5 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1953-10-20TornadoF2, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide$2,500 property (pre-1996 NOAA value, recorded in damage ranges); crops not recorded (1953 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (560 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.68event-days per yearabout 1.68 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)322005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought95.6event-days per yearabout 95.6 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)2,7092000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000591annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0591%UnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled), at a location in the countynot shownmodeledsee B1-fStorm Events does not record earthquakes.
Hail2.83events per yearabout 2.83 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)107.4 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.579event-days per yearabout 0.579 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)72005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.0149event-days per yearabout 0.0149 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)01946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.04event-days per yearabout 1.04 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)291996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.175events per year (modeled)about 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning45days per year with a strikeabout 45 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.678events per yearabout 0.68 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)261986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.453events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000913annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0913%LikelyStorm Events records in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather6.9event-days per yearabout 6.9 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)1312005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record; otherwise (always for earthquake) the scale is applied to the chance at a location, and the county as a whole is at least as likely. The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202593303.1
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202519300.633
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202579302.63
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202511300.367
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202512300.4
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20254300.133

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Natural hazards by jurisdiction: federal-data draft

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Draft from federal data for the planning team to confirm and trim: FEMA National Risk Index census tract ratings (NRI v1.20, December 2025) and Census 2020 blocks. A row covers every 2020 census tract that holds part of the jurisdiction's area in this county. X: at least one of those tracts has an NRI rating (Very Low to Very High) for the hazard. o: NRI "No Rating" (no expected loss modeled; not "cannot occur"). Blank: NRI Not Applicable or Insufficient Data in those tracts (not rated; also not "cannot occur"). Census tracts are coarse, so rows that share the same tracts are identical.

JurisdictionNRI hazard (X rated, o No Rating, blank Not Applicable or Insufficient Data)Evidence from federal records
Cold WaveDroughtEarthquakeHailHeat WaveIce StormInland FloodingLandslideLightningStrong WindTornadoWildfireWinter WeatherEvent records naming the placeall yearsPublic Assistancematched by name; nominal dollarsRepetitive-loss propertiesany definition
Otero County (unincorporated area)XXXXXXXXXXXXX0$174,511.630

Not shown: hazards NRI rates Not Applicable or Insufficient Data in every census tract of the county (Avalanche, Coastal Flooding, Hurricane, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity).

Evidence columns repeat figures from the jurisdiction table of this section (event records naming the place, all years; Public Assistance matched by applicant name; repetitive-loss properties, any definition).

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave7 of 770.084.492.2Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought6 of 789.197.998.2Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1, No Rating 1
Earthquake7 of 721.629.448.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 5
Hail7 of 782.087.996.2Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 5
Heat Wave7 of 79.220.036.7Relatively Low 4, Very Low 3
Hurricane0 of 7Not Applicable 7
Ice Storm7 of 73.65.814.0Very Low 7
Inland Flooding7 of 760.173.896.9Very High 1, Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 5
Landslide7 of 710.717.070.6Very Low 7
Lightning7 of 797.699.499.9Very High 7
Strong Wind7 of 776.389.796.7Very High 2, Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 3
Tornado7 of 737.453.067.6Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 4
Wildfire7 of 778.087.095.8Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 4
Winter Weather7 of 783.592.697.4Very High 2, Relatively High 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Otero CountyCountyExpired on 2025-12-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$174,511.630 total; 0 since its planIncludes $174,511.63 that FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file with no county (DR-1276-CO, EM-3271-CO); listed on the state page and not in the B1-d county totals.

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

The jurisdiction rows include $174,511.63 that FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file with no county; the county totals in B1-d leave it out (see each row's note).

FEMA files applicants under varying names, so these rows may not include every payment to a jurisdiction. The county totals in B1-d count every applicant FEMA files under this county, whatever the name.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2020-12-29county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$2,774$157,761$1,008,942under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$30,282,986n/an/a$1,152,616n/a3.81% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$6,663,964,753n/a18,690$66,889n/a$15,1520.001%
Hail$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$269,695$275,373$13,6580.0071%$0
Heat Wave$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$8$2,599$79,649under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$3,800,562,643n/a18,678$2,006n/a$1,274under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$3,800,379,292$10,185,916874$6,222,447$265,525$44,732n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$8,665,476n/a23$14n/a$20.000166%
Lightning$3,800,562,643n/a18,678$2,764n/a$978,571under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$45,216$114$517,1750.00119%$0$0
Tornado$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$241,485$1,860$202,8830.00635%$0
Wildfire$615,069,597$70,323,9233,927$194,011$190$11,1740.0315%
Winter Weather$3,800,562,643$156,493,81218,678$7,627$69$116,8350.000201%$0

Totals since 2020-12-29 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 57 county-coded records, 56 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 37 zone-level records, 37 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population18,678
Building value (total, not at risk)$3,800,562,643
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$156,493,812
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$8,911,042
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$2,990,048
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0141401
of which: La Junta city (community ID not in plan data)0141401
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0080800

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Otero County0801320000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0111101
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0030300
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 4 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)
  9. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2020 Block Assignment Files (county subdivision and place), version baf2020, pulled 2026-10-02, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/baf2020/, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/01-Redistricting_File--PL_94-171/
  10. U.S. Census Bureau, Census county adjacency file, 2024 vintage, version 2024, pulled 2026-10-03, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/county_adjacency/county_adjacency2024.txt
  11. NOAA National Hurricane Center, NHC HURDAT2 best-track data (Atlantic 1851 to 2025; Northeast and North Central Pacific 1949 to 2025), version 2025-092326, pulled 2026-10-03, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2025-092926.txt

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Otero County, CO: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 08089). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/co/08089/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org