Cochise County, AZ: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-01-26. Plan: Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221), approved 2023-01-27.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-01-27: no new hazard declaration and 169 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($44,284,506 a year), Heat Wave ($22,286,320) and Wildfire ($19,437,911).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Terms used

EAL:: expected annual loss: FEMA's modeled average yearly loss from a hazard.
NRI:: FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025).
NFIP:: National Flood Insurance Program.
RL, SRL:: repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss: flood-insured properties with repeated claims (definitions in B2-c).
FMA, HMGP:: Flood Mitigation Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, FEMA mitigation grants.
PA:: FEMA Public Assistance: disaster aid to governments and some nonprofits.
Zone-level:: NOAA logged the event for a National Weather Service forecast zone, which may include parts of neighboring counties.
County-coded:: NOAA logged the event to this county.
FIPS:: the federal code for a place; 04003 is this area.
D0 to D4:: U.S. Drought Monitor categories, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
F/EF, EFU:: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita tornado ratings; EFU is an unrated tornado.
kt, CONUS:: knots (1 kt is about 1.15 mph); the contiguous United States.
CFR:: Code of Federal Regulations.
A4-a, E1-a:: other items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (sources, and changes since the last plan).
Dollars:: nominal (as reported, labeled with the year), not adjusted for inflation.

Plan clock

Status:: Approved, expires 2028-01-26
Plan:: Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)
Approved:: 2023-01-27
Days to expiry:: 483

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-01-27)

New federal declarations:: none
Storm Events records since approval:: 169 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 2
Repeat-flood change:: this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

Jurisdiction	Type	Status	Plan	Approved	Expires	Days to expirynegative = days since expiry	Notes
Cochise County	County	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-01-26
Benson city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Bisbee city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Douglas city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Huachuca City town	Town	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Sierra Vista city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Tombstone city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13
Willcox city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	Cochise County (FEMA plan 108221)	2023-01-27	2028-01-26	483	this jurisdiction approved 2023-04-13

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
levee failure
flash flood as its own subtype
ice jams
debris flows
erosion (riverine and coastal)
land subsidence and sinkholes
expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EAL	Hazard	NRI risk rating	EAL rating	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year	Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count	Storm Events coverage note
1	Inland Flooding	Relatively High	Relatively Moderate	$40,876,586	$3,290	$3,404,630	$44,284,506	237
2	Heat Wave	Relatively High	Relatively High	$315	$14,380	$22,271,625	$22,286,320	73
3	Wildfire	Relatively High	Relatively High	$18,270,112	$2,655	$1,165,144	$19,437,911	45
4	Lightning	Very High	Relatively High	$15,747	n/a	$1,761,429	$1,777,175	15
5	Drought	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	n/a	$1,187,828	n/a	$1,187,828	84
6	Earthquake	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$771,547	n/a	$243,500	$1,015,046		Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7	Strong Wind	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$387,731	$1,203	$293,563	$682,496	202	Includes 25 High Wind and 9 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8	Tornado	Very Low	Very Low	$34,607	$219	$15,162	$49,988	7
9	Hail	Very Low	Very Low	$28,372	$6,848	$1,874	$37,093	102
10	Hurricane	Very Low	Very Low	$10,230	$3,735	under $1	$13,964	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11	Winter Weather	Very Low	Relatively Low	$2,132	under $1	$11,269	$13,401	36
12	Cold Wave	Very Low	Very Low	$456	$21	$10,945	$11,422	14	Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
13	Landslide	Very Low	Very Low	$976	n/a	$387	$1,363	1
14	Avalanche	Very Low	Very Low	$3	n/a	$555	$557	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, ice storm, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

Hazard	Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanche	tract 6 (Very Low, 45.3); tract 5.01 (Very Low, 44.8); tract 1.02 (Very Low, 44.3)
Earthquake	tract 9.02 (Relatively Low, 77.6); tract 8 (Relatively Low, 76.4); tract 6 (Relatively Low, 73.5)
Hurricane	tract 2.03 (Very Low, 44.0); tract 2.01 (Very Low, 37.8); tract 5.01 (Very Low, 34.3)
Landslide	tract 10 (Relatively Low, 89.9); tract 3.03 (Relatively Low, 89.5); tract 5.01 (Relatively Low, 87.2)
Tornado	tract 18.01 (Very Low, 9.9); tract 3.01 (Very Low, 9.3); tract 2.02 (Very Low, 9.1)
Wildfire	tract 21 (Very High, 99.6); tract 3.05 (Very High, 99.6); tract 5.01 (Very High, 99.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 6 is Census Tract 6). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

Hazard	Scale	Recordscount and years	Observed range	Worst recorded event	Most damaging (when different)	How it applies to jurisdictions	Note
Avalanche	none (count and damage only)	0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill	wind chill	9 records, 2011 to 2025 (9 zone-level)	1 day to 2 days (median 1 day); 8 with a recorded value	2 consecutive days, 2022-02-02 to 2022-02-03, 1 direct death, zone-level	Cold/Wind Chill, 2023-02-16, $5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)	crop damage	5 records, 2011 to 2023 (5 zone-level)		No crop damage reported in 5 records.	Frost/Freeze, 2011-02-02, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Drought	U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)	84 records, 2011 to 2025 (84 zone-level)	36 days to 437 days (median 217 days); 9 with a recorded value	437 days (about 14.4 months), 2014-02-18 to 2015-04-30, a run of 16 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
Earthquake	Modified Mercalli (local data)	0					Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	hail size (inches)	126 records, 1971 to 2026	0.5 in to 2 in (median 1 in); 126 with a recorded value	2 in hail, 2021-09-07; same size also recorded on 1988-10-16	Hail, 2024-08-21, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sierra Vista city (24 records), Willcox city (9 records), Benson city (8 records), Douglas city (8 records), Bisbee city (3 records), Tombstone city (3 records).
Excessive Heat, Heat	heat index (in event narratives)	73 records, 2011 to 2026 (73 zone-level)	1 day to 8 days (median 1 day); 63 with a recorded value	8 consecutive days, 2023-07-15 to 2023-07-22, 1 direct death, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression	Saffir-Simpson	0					Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood	damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)	237 records, 1996 to 2026		Flood, 2022-08-24, $1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sierra Vista city (36 records), Bisbee city (18 records), Douglas city (17 records), Benson city (16 records), Willcox city (14 records), Tombstone city (6 records).	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flow	none (count and damage only)	1 record, 2012		Debris Flow, 2012-08-17, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)		No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
Lightning	annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)	15 records, 1996 to 2023		Lightning, 2015-06-30, $0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars), 1 direct death	Lightning, 2023-08-16, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Douglas city (3 records), Sierra Vista city (3 records), Benson city (2 records), Willcox city (1 record).	Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)	wind speed (kt and mph)	34 records, 2011 to 2026 (34 zone-level)	30 kt (35 mph) to 76 kt (87 mph) (median 53.5 kt (62 mph)); 34 with a recorded value	76 kt (87 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2014-11-05; NWS zone AZZ513	Strong Wind, 2011-05-09, $11,200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Wind	wind speed (kt and mph)	200 records, 1959 to 2025	30 kt (35 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 181 with a recorded value	87 kt (100 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-08-27	Thunderstorm Wind, 2010-08-24, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sierra Vista city (19 records), Willcox city (14 records), Douglas city (12 records), Benson city (11 records), Bisbee city (4 records), Tombstone city (3 records).
Tornado	Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)	18 records, 1956 to 2024	F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 14 with a recorded value	EF1 tornado, 2019-09-23, 1.71 mi within this county, 580 yd wide, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars), 5 direct injuries		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Douglas city (1 record), Huachuca City town (1 record), Willcox city (1 record).	Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfire	acres burned (local data)	45 records, 2011 to 2025 (45 zone-level)		Wildfire, 2011-07-01, $15,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone AZZ513		Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet	none in data (snowfall: local data)	36 records, 2010 to 2024 (36 zone-level)		Winter Storm, 2019-01-01, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars); NWS zone AZZ508		Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 14 declarations covering 11 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard	County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars	Notes
2020-04-04	2020-01-20	DR-4524-AZ	Major disaster	COVID-19 Pandemic	Non-natural, not counted	$500,928.39
2020-03-13	2020-01-20	EM-3442-AZ	Emergency	COVID-19	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded	same incident as DR-4524
2017-06-11	2017-06-07	FM-5183-AZ	Fire management	Lizard Fire	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2011-06-12	2011-06-12	FM-2919-AZ	Fire management	Monument Fire	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2011-05-09	2011-05-08	FM-2907-AZ	Fire management	Horseshoe Two Fire	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2009-05-18	2009-05-18	FM-2821-AZ	Fire management	Mule Pass Fire	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-12	2005-08-29	EM-3241-AZ	Emergency	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Hurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted	no Public Assistance recorded
2003-06-21	2003-06-21	FM-2471-AZ	Fire management	Ash Fire	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2000-10-27	2000-10-21	DR-1347-AZ	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$234,401.92
1999-10-15	1999-09-14	DR-1304-AZ	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, High Winds	Inland Flooding; Strong Wind	PA not declared for this county
1993-01-19	1993-01-05	DR-977-AZ	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado	no Public Assistance recorded
1983-10-05	1983-09-23	DR-691-AZ	Major disaster	Severe Storms & Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1977-04-15	1977-04-15	EM-3038-AZ	Emergency	Drought	Drought	no Public Assistance recorded
1970-09-22	1970-09-22	DR-294-AZ	Major disaster	Heavy Rains & Flash	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

Hazard	Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)	Since plan approvalrecords	In the 12 months before plan approvalrecords	Last 5 yearsrecords	Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters	Period	Statement
Avalanche	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave	14	6	1	7	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought	84	26	3	29	1	1996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake	0	0	0	0	0		Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	126	9	4	14	0	1955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave	73	37	9	46	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Inland Flooding	237	30	12	42	5	1996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide	1	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning	15	1	0	1	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind	234	41	17	60	1	1955 to 2026-06-30	Includes 25 High Wind and 9 Strong Wind records.
Tornado	18	1	0	1	1	1950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire	45	11	5	16	5	1996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather	36	7	3	12	0	1996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

Date	Event type	Magnitude or extent	Damagenominal dollars	Deaths, injuriesdirect only	Location	Flags	Why listed
2026-06-24	Excessive Heat		$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars)	2, 0	NWS zone AZZ507 (UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	deaths or injuries recorded
2024-06-25	Heat		$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)	2, 0	NWS zone AZZ508 (EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	deaths or injuries recorded
2023-07-15	Excessive Heat		$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)	1, 0	NWS zone AZZ507 (UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2022-08-24	Flood		$1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)	0, 0	ELFRIDA	in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2021-09-07	Hail	2 in	$0 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)	0, 0	PALOMINAS to HEREFORD		B1-c worst recorded: Hail
2019-09-23	Tornado	EF1, 1.71 mi within this county, 580 yd wide	$250,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)	0, 5	WILLCOX		B1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2015-06-30	Lightning		$0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)	1, 0	BENSON		B1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2014-11-05	High Wind	76 kt (87 mph) measured gust	$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2014 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AZZ513 (DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2014-02-18	Drought		$0 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2014 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AZZ507 (UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-07-01	Wildfire		$15,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AZZ513 (DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
1997-08-06	Flash Flood		damage not reported	6, 0	DOUGLAS		deaths or injuries recorded
1995-08-27	Thunderstorm Wind	87 kt (100 mph), measurement type not recorded	damage not recorded (pre-1996 record)	0, 0	Sierra Vista		B1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (883 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

15 Fire Management declarations (1990-06-27 to 1996-06-24) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

Hazard	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row	Unit	In plain terms	Descriptor	Descriptor basis	NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)	NRI period	Location	Note
Avalanche	0.01	events per year	about 1 in 100 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0	1994 to 2023 (30 years)	see B1-f	0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave	0.00731	event-days per year	about 0.00731 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)	0.139	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Drought	76.4	event-days per year	about 76.4 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)	3,101	2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)	countywide
Earthquake	0.00178	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.178%			not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail	0.266	events per year	about 1 in 4 years	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	10.1 (modeled)	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Heat Wave	2.44	event-days per year	about 2.44 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)	32.4	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Hurricane	0.0283	events per year	about 1 in 35 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	6	1851 to 2024 (Atlantic); 1949 to 2024 (Pacific)	see B1-f	NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Inland Flooding	6.21	event-days per year	about 6.21 days per year	Highly likely	Storm Events event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)	174	1996 to 2023 (28 years)	see B1-f
Landslide	1.38	events per year (modeled)	about 1.38 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Lightning	56.2	days per year with a strike	about 56.2 days per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)	countywide
Strong Wind	0.584	events per year	about 0.58 per year	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	23	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Tornado	0.156	events per year	about 1 in 6 years	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)	see B1-f
Wildfire	0.00891	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.891%	Likely	Storm Events records in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Winter Weather	4.31	event-days per year	about 4.31 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)	81.8	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

Unit	Descriptor	Definition
events per year	Highly likely	1 or more per year
events per year	Likely	about once in 1 to 10 years
events per year	Possible	about once in 10 to 100 years
events per year	Unlikely	less than once in 100 years
annual probability	Likely	10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probability	Possible	1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probability	Unlikely	under 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)	Highly likely	event-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)	Likely	event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)	Possible	event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-days	Highly likely	cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

Hazard	Band	Years	Eventscounty-coded records	Years in period	Events per yearevents / years
Hail	1.00-1.99 in	1996 to 2025	51	30	1.7
Hail	2.00 in+	1996 to 2025	1	30	0.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	50-64 kt	1996 to 2025	139	30	4.63
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	65 kt+	1996 to 2025	14	30	0.467
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	unmeasured or below 50 kt	1996 to 2025	15	30	0.5
Tornado	EF0-1	1996 to 2025	6	30	0.2
Tornado	EF2-3	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Tornado	EF4-5	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Tornado	unrated (EFU)	1996 to 2025	1	30	0.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

Hazard	Tractsrated of all	NRI risk score, 0 to 100			Tracts by rating
Hazard	Tractsrated of all	Min	Median	Max	Tracts by rating
Avalanche	15 of 38	33.7	42.3	45.3	Very Low 15, Not Applicable 23
Cold Wave	6 of 38	16.1	17.7	22.1	Relatively Low 2, Very Low 4, No Rating 32
Drought	19 of 38	69.8	81.4	98.6	Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 6, No Rating 19
Earthquake	38 of 38	5.9	45.9	77.6	Relatively Low 23, Very Low 15
Hail	38 of 38	1.9	23.3	45.9	Relatively Low 1, Very Low 37
Heat Wave	38 of 38	81.6	98.1	99.8	Very High 31, Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane	38 of 38	13.2	28.3	44.0	Very Low 38
Inland Flooding	38 of 38	1.8	83.4	99.8	Very High 9, Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 13, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 2
Landslide	37 of 38	8.7	21.0	89.9	Relatively Low 4, Very Low 33, No Rating 1
Lightning	38 of 38	55.0	94.3	98.8	Very High 13, Relatively High 21, Relatively Moderate 4
Strong Wind	38 of 38	15.9	60.3	80.1	Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 14, Very Low 2
Tornado	38 of 38	0.3	4.4	9.9	Very Low 38
Wildfire	38 of 38	47.7	98.1	99.6	Very High 9, Relatively High 17, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2
Winter Weather	38 of 38	17.2	23.8	29.6	Relatively Low 34, Very Low 4

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

Jurisdiction	Type	Plan status	Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition	Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars	Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan	Notes
Cochise County	County	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2	$197,830.29	0 total; 0 since its plan	Includes $15,268.04 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4524-AZ).
Benson city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$0	37 total; 4 since its plan	Includes $0 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4524-AZ).
Bisbee city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$72,442.15	25 total; 1 since its plan	Includes $20,602.48 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4524-AZ).
Douglas city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$36,304.10	41 total; 3 since its plan	Includes $36,304.10 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4524-AZ).
Huachuca City town	Town	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	1 total; 0 since its plan
Sierra Vista city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$17,651.01	82 total; 9 since its plan	Includes $17,651.01 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4524-AZ).
Tombstone city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	12 total; 1 since its plan
Willcox city	City	Approved, expires 2028-01-26	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	39 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

Hazard	Building exposuremodeled dollars	Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars	Population exposedpeople	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted	Storm Events damage since 2023-01-27county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollars	Zone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zone	Note
Avalanche	$3,548,624	n/a	1	$3	n/a	$555	under 0.0001%
Cold Wave	$873,832,638	$7,453,685	813	$456	$21	$10,945	under 0.0001%		$5,000
Drought	n/a	$71,297,588	n/a	n/a	$1,187,828	n/a	1.67% (agriculture)		$0	NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake	$46,739,687,424	n/a	125,447	$771,547	n/a	$243,500	0.00165%
Hail	$27,309,472,531	$186,369,894	125,169	$28,372	$6,848	$1,874	0.000104%	$100,000
Heat Wave	$27,309,472,531	$186,369,894	125,169	$315	$14,380	$22,271,625	under 0.0001%		$0
Hurricane	$27,305,305,213	$186,348,321	125,143	$10,230	$3,735	under $1	under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding	$27,308,240,863	$25,507,158	10,534	$40,876,586	$3,290	$3,404,630	n/a (see note)	$97,000		NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide	$562,777,701	n/a	1,209	$976	n/a	$387	0.000173%
Lightning	$27,309,472,531	n/a	125,169	$15,747	n/a	$1,761,429	under 0.0001%	$150,000
Strong Wind	$27,309,472,531	$186,369,894	125,169	$387,731	$1,203	$293,563	0.00142%	$73,500	$25,500	Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level High Wind record ($20,000) and 2 zone-level Strong Wind records ($5,500): NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado	$27,309,472,531	$186,369,894	125,169	$34,607	$219	$15,162	0.000127%	$0
Wildfire	$5,661,278,429	$118,114,954	41,688	$18,270,112	$2,655	$1,165,144	0.323%		$534,000
Winter Weather	$27,309,472,531	$186,369,894	125,169	$2,132	under $1	$11,269	under 0.0001%		$0

Totals since 2023-01-27 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 71 county-coded records, 71 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $420,500; 98 zone-level records, 98 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $564,500 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

Measure	Value
Population	125,169
Building value (total, not at risk)	$27,309,472,531
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)	$186,369,894
NRI risk rating (all hazards)	Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards	$61,618,990
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)	$29,180,080
Social vulnerability rating	Relatively High
Community resilience rating	Very Low
NRI version	December 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

Definition	Properties	Severe repetitive loss	Properties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0	Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	2	Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

Scope	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
County total	0	2	2	0	2
of which: Cochise County (unincorporated area)	0	2	2	0	2
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file	1	0	1	1	0

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

Jurisdiction	NFIP community ID	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
Cochise County	040012	2	2	2
Benson city	040013	0	0	0
Bisbee city	040014	0	0	0
Douglas city	040015	0	0	0
Huachuca City town	040016	0	0	0
Sierra Vista city	040017	0	0	0
Tombstone city	040106	0	0	0
Willcox city	040018	0	0	0

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy group	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
single-family residential	2	2	2
2 to 4 unit residential	0	0	0
other residential	0	0	0
non-residential	0	0	0
not reported	0	0	0

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Cochise County, AZ: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 04003). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/az/04003/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]