Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Lee County, AR

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
05077
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2026-11-09. Plan: Lee County (FEMA plan 105449), approved 2021-11-10.

Since the plan was approved on 2021-11-10: 3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 132 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Earthquake ($3,242,246 a year), Inland Flooding ($1,460,328) and Tornado ($1,155,123).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2026-11-09
Plan:
Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)
Approved:
2021-11-10
Days to expiry:
40
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2021-11-10)

New federal declarations:
3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3627-AR (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4873-AR (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), EM-3636-AR (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
132 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 3, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 9
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Lee CountyCountyApproved, expires 2026-11-09Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)2021-11-102026-11-0940
Aubrey townTownPlan 105449 approved 2021-11-10, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleLee County (FEMA plan 105449), pending adoption here2021-11-10 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2026-11-09 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Haynes townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)2021-11-102026-11-0940this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-24
LaGrange townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)2021-11-102026-11-0940this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-24
Marianna cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-09Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)2021-11-102026-11-0940this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-24
Moro townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09Lee County (FEMA plan 105449)2021-11-102026-11-0940this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-24
Rondo townTownPlan 105449 approved 2021-11-10, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleLee County (FEMA plan 105449), pending adoption here2021-11-10 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2026-11-09 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Lee County School DistrictSchool/School DistrictPlan 105449 approved 2021-11-10, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleLee County (FEMA plan 105449), pending adoption here2021-11-10 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2026-11-09 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1EarthquakeRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,364,687n/a$1,877,559$3,242,246Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
2Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,297,944$150,337$12,047$1,460,32816
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$160,919$4,066$990,138$1,155,1235
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$27$1,070$374,348$375,445137
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$3,436$1,963$232,108$237,50811Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
6Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$51,596$1,031$182,276$234,90434Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$175,349n/a$175,34933
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$103,988n/a$21,487$125,4755
9HailRelatively LowVery Low$23,278$55,326$12,990$91,59325
10LightningVery LowVery Low$3,567n/a$41,093$44,6600No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11HurricaneVery LowVery Low$14,470$28,944$416$43,8290Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
12Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$7,680$988$662$9,33041
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$895$28$391$1,3140No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$59n/a$16$750No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 4703 (Very High, 97.7); tract 4702 (Relatively High, 91.2); tract 4701 (Relatively Moderate, 88.4)
Hurricanetract 4701 (Relatively Low, 57.6); tract 4702 (Relatively Low, 56.1); tract 4703 (Relatively Low, 54.3)
Landslidetract 4701 (Very Low, 80.9); tract 4703 (Very Low, 41.7); tract 4702 (Very Low, 33.2)
Tornadotract 4703 (Very High, 98.8); tract 4701 (Very High, 93.5); tract 4702 (Relatively High, 85.3)
Wildfiretract 4703 (Very Low, 67.2); tract 4701 (Very Low, 61.6); tract 4702 (Very Low, 52.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 4703 is Census Tract 4703). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill10 records, 2021 to 2026 (10 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 3 days); 5 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2026-01-24 to 2026-01-27, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)33 records, 2007 to 2026 (33 zone-level)8 days to 162 days (median 86.5 days); 10 with a recorded value162 days (about 5.3 months), 2012-06-12 to 2012-11-20, a run of 6 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)34 records, 1974 to 20250.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 34 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2022-04-30; same size also recorded on 1974-05-08, 1979-05-03, 1981-03-04, 1989-03-30, 1993-05-18, 2003-04-06, 2003-05-16, 2021-03-27Hail, 2008-04-04, $2,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Marianna city (13 records), Aubrey town (2 records), Moro town (2 records), Rondo town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)137 records, 2007 to 2026 (137 zone-level)1 day to 21 days (median 2 days); 72 with a recorded valueAugust 2007 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 1998 to 2022 (5 zone-level)Ice Storm, 1998-12-23, $1,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone ARZ049Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)16 records, 2008 to 2023Flood, 2011-05-01, $550,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Marianna city (6 records), Aubrey town (1 record), Haynes town (1 record), Moro town (1 record), Rondo town (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2008 (1 zone-level)52 kt (60 mph); 1 with a recorded value52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2008-01-29; NWS zone ARZ049Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)60 records, 1955 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 90 kt (104 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 27 with a recorded value90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1979-05-03Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-03-31, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Marianna city (16 records), Moro town (7 records), Haynes town (4 records), Aubrey town (3 records), Rondo town (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)13 records, 1970 to 2015F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 13 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1970-11-19, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 400 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1970 dollars), 27 direct injuriesTornado, 1978-12-03, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1978 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Aubrey town (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)41 records, 2000 to 2026 (41 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2000-12-13, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone ARZ049Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 18 declarations covering 13 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3636-AREmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-05-212025-04-02DR-4873-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado$293,024.76new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-04-052025-04-02EM-3627-AREmergencySevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4873
2020-08-272020-08-26EM-3541-AREmergencyHurricane LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-04-032020-01-20DR-4518-ARMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3461-AREmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4518
2016-02-052015-12-26DR-4254-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2011-05-022011-04-14DR-1975-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Associated FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$2,484,706.80
2009-06-162009-04-27DR-1845-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$1,037,776.93
2008-03-262008-03-18DR-1751-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$171,048.28
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3215-AREmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$1,985.61
2000-12-292000-12-12DR-1354-ARMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm (primary); also designated: Cold Wave$62,669.14
2000-12-282000-12-12EM-3159-AREmergencySevere Winter Ice StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1354
1997-03-021997-03-01DR-1162-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms and TornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1994-02-281994-02-09DR-1011-ARMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1991-05-301991-04-12DR-907-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1987-12-311987-12-24DR-807-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1973-04-271973-04-27DR-375-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-201964-03-20DR-166-ARMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-08-021963-08-02DR-157-ARMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Flooding
1961-05-161961-05-16DR-112-ARMajor disasterFloods & TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado
1960-05-281960-05-28DR-102-ARMajor disasterTornadoes & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1958-05-151958-05-15DR-83-ARMajor disasterHeavy Rainstorms & FloodsInland Flooding
1957-05-291957-05-29DR-77-ARMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave11919101996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought3313013001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail34818001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave13783483001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm5111101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding16222811996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind61808101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado13000611950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather41828211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-01-24Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2022-04-30Hail1.75 inproperty not reported; $0 crops (2022 dollars)0, 0SCOTT VLYnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2012-06-12Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-05-01Flood$550,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0JOCKS to LA GRANGEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-04-04Thunderstorm Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gustproperty not reported; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 1MARIANNA LEE CO ARPT to MARIANNAdeaths or injuries recorded
2008-01-29High Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2007-08-05Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2000-12-13Winter Storm$100,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2000 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2000-07-20Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$5,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)1, 0MARIANNAdeaths or injuries recorded
1998-12-23Ice Storm$1,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ARZ049 (LEE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1979-05-03Thunderstorm Wind90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1970-11-19TornadoF3, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 400 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1970 dollars)0, 27location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (351 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.47event-days per yearabout 1.47 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)282005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought8.67event-days per yearabout 8.67 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)2522000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00624annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.624%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.8events per yearabout 2.8 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)106.1 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave23.1event-days per yearabout 23.1 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)3732005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0183events per yearabout 1 in 55 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)61851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.978event-days per yearabout 0.978 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)661946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.571event-days per yearabout 0.571 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)161996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.25events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning59.5days per year with a strikeabout 59.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.58events per yearabout 1.58 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)601986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.4events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000254annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0254%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather4.95event-days per yearabout 4.95 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)942005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202516300.533
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202521300.7
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave4 of 447.959.879.9Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought4 of 486.294.995.8Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Earthquake4 of 486.889.897.7Very High 1, Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Hail4 of 474.877.380.6Relatively Moderate 4
Heat Wave4 of 471.182.294.1Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane4 of 454.255.257.6Relatively Low 4
Ice Storm4 of 483.691.497.1Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Inland Flooding4 of 425.439.575.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3
Landslide4 of 423.637.580.9Very Low 4
Lightning4 of 442.256.581.9Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind4 of 475.586.296.3Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado4 of 476.089.498.8Very High 2, Relatively High 2
Wildfire4 of 444.356.967.2Very Low 4
Winter Weather4 of 441.452.974.2Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 60% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Lee CountyCountyApproved, expires 2026-11-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$4,010,758.230 total; 0 since its planIncludes $1,985.61 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3215-AR).
Aubrey townTownPlan 105449 approved 2021-11-10, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded8 total; no approved plan
Haynes townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09no Public Assistance recorded5 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
LaGrange townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Marianna cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-09FMA RL 3, SRL 0; any 6$17,091.2735 total; 7 since its plan
Moro townTownApproved, expires 2026-11-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$15,273.9410 total; 1 since its plan
Rondo townTownPlan 105449 approved 2021-11-10, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$8,088.084 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2021-11-10county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$3,436$1,963$232,1080.000226%$0
Droughtn/a$131,770,598n/an/a$175,349n/a0.133% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$2,673,035,647n/a8,600$1,364,687n/a$1,877,5590.0511%
Hail$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$23,278$55,326$12,9900.00153%$0
Heat Wave$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$27$1,070$374,348under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$1,517,627,882$155,011,8078,582$14,470$28,944$4160.000953%
Ice Storm$1,518,311,735n/a8,594$103,988n/a$21,4870.00685%$0
Inland Flooding$1,517,678,694$77,676,8372,581$1,297,944$150,337$12,047n/a (see note)$0$293,024.76NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$4,304,086n/a29$59n/a$160.00137%
Lightning$1,518,311,735n/a8,594$3,567n/a$41,0930.000235%
Strong Wind$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$51,596$1,031$182,2760.0034%$153,000
Tornado$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$160,919$4,066$990,1380.0106%$293,024.76
Wildfire$382,534,971$14,848,8922,520$895$28$3910.000234%
Winter Weather$1,518,311,735$167,500,9908,594$7,680$988$6620.000506%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2021-11-10 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 18 county-coded records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $153,000; 114 zone-level records, 114 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $293,024.76 on 3 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population8,594
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,518,311,735
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$167,500,990
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$3,451,647
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,745,530
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition9Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total3090907
of which: Marianna city3060606
of which: Lee County (unincorporated area)0030301
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0030300

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Lee County0504440030301
Aubrey town0501230000000
Marianna city0501243060606
Moro town0501250000000
Rondo town0501260000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential3090907
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 6 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Lee County, AR: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 05077). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ar/05077/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]